What is the future of Coin Roll Hunting?

[placerman]

I was a member of this forum for many years and lurked in other forums before I finally found this forum.

I saw a video on youtube about this and that's what got me into hunting.

With that said I know I came to this party late but I must add that the majority of people out there would not have the wherewithal to do this for very long. Most people just don't have "what it takes" to do this sort of thing on a weekly basis and deal with all the hassles.

In addition, if it were just a matter of removing the silver in circulation, the silver would have run out decades ago. What is going on is people are dying and their families are cashing their coins without realizing what they have or some variation of this.

Do the math... How many clad halfs have been minted? Around 0.4% of them end up being silver. If you count NIFC and proof coins, Ill bet it bumps it up to 0.9%. That means almost 1% of all the halves in circulation are collectible and with the vast amount removed every week, that means MILLIONS of silver, NIFC, and proof halfs are added to the mix every month.

With the economy getting worse, there wont be as many people who can afford to get into this and also, more people will be forced to cash in coin collections. These facts bode well for those of us who are willing to stick it out.

With that said, I agree with some posters about not advertising this as much as in the past.

 

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[JJtheRollHunter]

Was the video with that guy that had a couple of dream boxes of dimes and opened them with his son? He sure must not care about competition.

 

[fistfulladirt]

The only difference I see today is internet access. If you were around back in the late 70's, early 80's, we were working thru a recession then. I was doing a little crhing. So were others....the finds seemed the same as today, spot price on silver peaked at around $50 an oz. LOTS of hunters. My $.50

 

[Argentium]

Thank You Placerman ! For the rational perspective , this is exactly what I've been trying to
point out as well. When you consider the massive silver meltdown that occurred in the wake
of the Hunt brothers manipulation of the silver market , and the fact that regularly circulating
U.S. silver coins have not been minted since 1970 -- This is clear evidence that the supply is
steadily being replenished by the unknowing and the uncaring . Argentium.

 

[jrf30]

I think there is a two tier play going on here. First, there were and ARE many in circulation that have been there for a LONG time. That option has been played out in some spots, like here in AZ, where I think someone (like an LJ) went through the system and took out a LOT of that excess. . that's why my numbers are so low and others from here have the same problem. It has NOT been played out in other spots, like Louisiana, which is why LJ did so well. It seems it is more in play back east than out west in general.

Then there is the constant replenishment from new sources. That's what is keeping me in some silver. People are putting new silver in the system all the time. But that is SMALL compared to the first tier. And that first tier is a ONE TIME deal. When it is gone, then ONLY the second tier is left. And believe me folks, the second tier is NOT very lucrative. I do it for the fun. The silver is nice, but I LIKE doing it. I do pennies too, for the copper. For fun. But I think things have picked up in the industry very much lately, and the first tier is GONE out here, and WILL go away elsewhere too.

When it does, many people will stop doing this. Those that write things like "It was a bad week. I only found 40 silvers in 6 boxes this week" will find it hard to keep doing this when they go through 6 boxes and find 4 silvers total. (In general. Any resemblence to any real post is purely coincidental ...) As someone who would average TWO silvers in 6 boxes, I see those posts and, although happy for those peple, shake my head at their disappiointment in their finds. My goal is always to find 100 silvers per YEAR. Last year I did over 300 boxes, and found 122 silvers. And a good portion of those came from hand rolled that were picked up while out getting the boxes or getting penny, nickel or dime boxes. So they came from tier 2 - the new stuff just going into the system. On boxes, I bet I only got about 60 of those silvers. I get about a silver every 4 boxes or so, and then had that terrible period where 52 of 55 were skunks over 2 months (and I took a break after that. LOL). I see that when the first tier is done, EVERYONE will be getting ONLY the second tier numbers.

And that's where the difference between people will show up. You see, I'll CONTINUE to search boxes, even with only 60 or so in 315 boxes. I'll continue even though that is dismal. Because that is 60 more than I had before i searched those boxes. Plus I found the others because I was out picking up those boxes and other boxes. Also, I search halves when it costs me no time because I am doing something else (like driving. Yes, I know, I know. But I search while driving on highways and can see those big numbers, and at red lights, and whenever I can while on the road. It doesn't add a second to my trip, but keeps me occupied while waiting in traffic!) So I'll be there when ALL of us are getting less silver. Getting new stuff in the second tier. And other places WILL eventually go through the first tier stuff, and then it will be second tier for you guys too. So we'll see who stays around and who leaves.

But I don't agree that most of these dream boxes are from people dropping new stuff into the system. I personally think it is from stuff that has been sitting around for a while, and not searched. In virgin areas if you will. Areas where the bottom has NOT been hit. And when it IS hit, there will be a difference in finds. Then you'll see that it is not just new stuff that made those dream boxes, as the numbers dry up and the definition of dream box changes. Hey, anyone finding 5 silver quarters in a box would be ecstatic. Some day that will be the 2nd tier stuff hitting the streets on halves too. In three years, I've only had 4 boxes reach 5 silvers in them, and only ONE that had at least 10 silvers. Only 1. In 3 years. In probably close to 1,000 boxes. That's my prediction of the future of CRH. Which is also why there have been NO new articles in Western and Eastern Treasures about CRH. I was goign to write two more follow up stories after the first one, but decided that the hobby could not take the competition I was brigning on. PLus some here told me that it was bad for us, and I listened. I also never wrote about the Ryedale. I just don't want the competition. :-)

Oh, and having said that, I picked up a Ben this weekend. My first of the year. Made me smile pretty good all day long. :-)

 

[65gt350]

Good analysis Jrf30. I agree that there will always be those that enjoy the hunt and will continue to hunt even when we reach tier 2. I think CRH is like fishing and there as many types of CRH'rs as there are fisherman.

Some fishermen will only fish after they see someone else pull a fish out of the river. They hurry up and gather their gear and race to put their line in without even reading the river or changing their bait or lure. These people will probably cast about 15 times and then head back to camp complaining about how there are no fish in the river. More often then not these are younger fisherman and they usually will ask what are you using for bait/lure and that is about it. These types of fisherman are like the CRH’rs who complains about tellers, banks, other CRH in my area etc... They'll be around for about 20 skunks and they'll find another hobby. The fact is that there will always be these people in this hobby.

Sometimes you meet someone who will ask more questions such as hook size, setup, or presentation. Most if not all fisherman that I know will take the time to show and tell you how to fish a certain river but you have to ask the right questions and even then they will probably not show you their special holes or bends in the river. I would like to think that most of the longtime CRH’rs are like these fisherman. If you ask the right questions you'll get some great information but don't expect them to order the halves for you.

Another type of fishermen is the old guy who pulls in 1 or 2 fish from a hole and moves on. You watch as others try the hole and get nothing. He then comes back and pulls another couple. When you try to talk to him he just nods or gives vague answers about custom bait, and currents. I really don't blame the old guy I just figure I haven't asked the right questions yet. My guess is that most of the longtime posters that are gone are like these fishermen. They are still hitting the holes but just want to enjoy fishing without all the bother of answering the same questions over and over.

Oh yeah, congrats on the Ben.


HH and HF,
65GT350

 

[gordon and tanner]

I do not know how to quote, but jrf30 wrote:

I search halves when it costs me no time because I am doing something else (like driving. Yes, I know, I know. But I search while driving on highways and can see those big numbers, and at red lights, and whenever I can while on the road. It doesn't add a second to my trip, but keeps me occupied while waiting in traffic!)

I too search while driving, at red lights, on the expressway (I pick up the coin give it a glimpse and then place it in my other cup holder), while waiting in line to pick my kids up a school. I even re-roll the coins while driving. I rarely bring a roll into my house, just my keeper coins. It looks like in Michigan they are going to outlaw texting while driving, I hope the law makers never here of CRS

I usually only search for nickles, The two dream dream rolls I have found have been customer wrapped. Although the 1901 V nickle I found came from a plastic shrink wrapped roll.

I do believe It takes a certain type of person to keep on coin roll searching, If my wife could profit and extra $50 per day doing this she would search the same amount of rolls she did last year, NONE.

Gordon

 

[ArkieBassMan]

I agree as well jrf30. Here is my opinion on the subject: there are two types of CRHers - the collector and the person looking to make extra money. The collector is in it for the long haul and the number of collectors CRHing will remain pretty constant. The people CRHing for extra cash will be in it hot and heavy while the gettin' is good AND the price of silver makes it a profitable endeavor. When either factor is no longer there, the number of people CRHing for extra cash will drop like a rock.

As long as the price of silver remains high, the number of people CRHing will rise, and the number of finds per box will fall. Yes, there will be exceptions. There will always be silver to be found. There will always be the occasional collection dumped for whatever reason. Some areas will always be better than others for whatever reason. But, in general, as long as silver prices are high, the number of finds will continue to dwindle...which isn't necessarily a bad thing for the "collectors". As the finds dwindle, the number of people CRHing for extra cash should dwindle as well, and the collectors averages should start to rise.

The absolute best thing that could happen for the collectors (as far as actually finding silver) is for the price of silver to fall dramatically. If silver should fall back down to the $5/oz. range again, the silver supply would greatly go up as well as the number of people CRHing would go way down. A lot of silver would find its way back into the system - especially 40% halves - as they would essentially only be worth face value. There would be much less competition as only collectors would be CRHing.

I was hoping that I was in a "low competition" area. Apparently that isn't the case. Only 6 boxes of halves searched so far, but I have found a grand total of 1 40% half and have seen several "marked" coins.

 

[Hi Ho Silver!]

I agree also with a lot of what has been said. Yes, a lot of silver has been melted down. Yes, much more has been found by us and others. But remember this: There was OVER 1.3 BILLION KENNEDY HALF DOLLARS minted. Plus the Bens and Walkers. That is one MOTHER LOAD of coins. A MOUNTAIN! So Keep on searching!