Statistical Findings: Enders Related to Total Silver in a Given Box

[namster]

Hello everyone,

I know this seems tedious, but I love this sort of thing. The following is my limited sample of 50 halves boxes or so since I started keeping records. Feel free to contribute with your own data and I will update the OP. My results are flawed due to the low sample number. It would be interesting to see how the numbers look with a wider sample.

Format

Enders : Total Silver

Data

0:0 X 21

0:1
0:1
0:1
0:1
0:1
0:1
0:1
0:1
0:1
0:1
0:2
0:2
0:2
0:2
0:2
0:3
0:3
0:3
0:4
0:5
0:7
0:11
1:1
1:4
1:3
1:1
1:5
1:17
2:10
3:8
3:14
4:62

Results

0:0-11

1:1-5

2:2-10

3:3-14

4:4-62

 

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[coinmojo]

This subject comes up once in a while but for me I like to think where ther is smoke there is fire.

Things have changed quite a bit since I started doing this in 2005 but over the course of my early experience pre $20 per ounce silver I would expect to find 10 more silver for every roll showing silver on the end. but usually holds true only when I find multiple enders in a box.

For example one ender could bring 1-10 more total silver in the entire box. But if there is only 1 ender it will usually be on the lower end, like just the one coin and it happend to be on the end.

However if the are more than 2 enders the formula seems to hold true and falls in line somewhere around 6-10 silver for every ender in a particular box.

As a result a single ender in my mind only gurantees that the box is not a skunk, but if I see 3 or more enders in a box I get really excited, because that is truly a box that is smoking, and,
"Where there is smoke there is Fire"

My most recent, decent score, showed 8 enders, and I pulled 93 silver. Beating my expectations based on my 10 for 1 theory, but whoohoo what a feeling. I'll take it.

As we all know, it is random. So these are just observations based on personal experience.

By the way my average per box lately is less than 2 keepers per box in the last year. I am doing 2 boxes of halves a week.

Mojo

 

[Bigheed]

I'd agree with mojo, I've had lots of boxes with 1-2 enders and sometimes those are the only silver in the box, usually they are not "off the hook boxes" , sometimes you'll get 9-10 with NO enders.

However, once you get 3+ (3 is the most I've ever had and produced 40 keepers) I think you start to see some exponential growth in the amount of silver in the box, odds take over in your favor.

Theres no real science but once you get to 3+ the odds of those being the only silver in the box become drastically lower.

Bigheed

 

[golden silver]

I have noticed a correlation with not only silver enders but proof enders that are not silver as well. People usually snag those so if I see one on the end as well as a silver ender It tends to be a better box.

Golden Silver

 

[namster]

Essentially the purpose of this is to codify the findings others have reported. I think, statistically, there must be a predictive correlation between enders and total silver. For example, in my data set for one ender, I have 2 that only produced that one coin, but three others that produced 3-5. The average for one ender is 2.8 coins, so if you see one ender you could expect to see at least one other coin in the box but may see only 1 total, or up to 5 or more. I think the boxes with the solo ender and nothing else stick out to us and that is why we believe they are common. We would need to see at least a sample of 1000+ to draw a statistically valid conclusion.

 

[penman77]

Interesting to think about. As I read over this post I realize that I am just adding some math to the thoughts posted earlier in the thread.

My knee jerk conclusion was that if you had 20 boxes, each of which showed one ender, that the average for the 20 boxes would be 10 silvers, because end coins represent 10% of the coins in the box. After more thought, I don't think that is valid.

When I turn the question around and approach it from the other direction, I observe that most of the boxes which produce silver contain 1 to 3 silvers. That gives, in the long run, a 10% to 30% chance of a single ender box. There is a chance that one of these boxes will have two or even three enders, but that is a slim chance. I am leaving out some steps in the thought process here, but when I see a box with one ender, I expect to see a total of 1 to 4 silvers, not 10. This is because one of the few silvers just happened to be on the end. Most of my 1-4 silver boxes will not have an ender.

On the other hand, when I see 4 enders I am virtually assured of a great box. If there were only 4 silvers in the box, with each silver having a 10% chance of being an ender, then the chance of having 4 enders be the ONLY silver in the box is .1x.1x.1x.1= 1/10000. This is with random distribution, and I would expect random distribution with machine wrapped rolls.

In summary, when I see a 1 ender box I expect that it is one of the many boxes with a silver total running from 1-3. Even though most of those 1-3 silver boxes will have no enders. But when I see 4, 3, or even two enders I expect a great box. Even with two enders, only 1 in 100 of those boxes should have only two silvers. Your chance of having a great box increases exponentially with each ender.

 

[JD-GA]

It will play out at 10% over time. I had several boxes with 1 ender that I found hand fulls of silver and boxes with hand fulls of enders with no other silver in rolls. My 2nd best box ever there was 1 ender and 69 silvers.

 

[penman77]

IMO, boxes with more than 1 ender will average out to having close to 10 total silvers per ender, with the silver/ender ratio increasing slightly as the number of enders increases (ie four-ender boxes will be slightly more than twice as productive than two-ender boxes). Single ender boxes will average significantly less than 10 silvers per box.

Concerning the box with 1 ender and 69 silvers, anything is possible but seeing that result without going through many many 1-ender boxes is unlikely. I don't know how many you have searched. There is a 90% chance that any piece of silver in a box is hidden. There is very little chance that 69 of 70 are hidden, about 1/1250 the way I calculate it.

If someone started a thread and requested that CRH's list the counts from all of their one-ender boxes we could have a meaningful sample within a few months.

 

[Hi Ho Silver!]

Means nothing!

 

[Dozer D]

I see NO scientific meaning to your study. For in any given box (i.e. halves), 50-rolls means that there is 100 possible faces showing. Just because you may be seeing 2,3,4, or 5 enders means that you might have 10% or more in the box. It should be looked at just like a flip of a coin, that each flip must be considered independent of the previous flip; or, just like the roll of dice, each roll must be measured seperately from the previous roll. Granted, the fact that once you see ONE that there might be others, but don't count on it happening. That's why there is Las Vagas, the odds are against you, but with the house to win in the long run.

Good luck in your study, just remember 1half is only one out of a thousand, .001%

 

[namster]

I see NO scientific meaning to your study. For in any given box (i.e. halves), 50-rolls means that there is 100 possible faces showing. Just because you may be seeing 2,3,4, or 5 enders means that you might have 10% or more in the box. It should be looked at just like a flip of a coin, that each flip must be considered independent of the previous flip; or, just like the roll of dice, each roll must be measured seperately from the previous roll. Granted, the fact that once you see ONE that there might be others, but don't count on it happening. That's why there is Las Vagas, the odds are against you, but with the house to win in the long run.

Good luck in your study, just remember 1half is only one out of a thousand, .001%

I think you mean .1%

Each roll is not independent of the other..they are all together in the same box. So, if you see 3 rolls with enders showing that should be predictive of finding more than just those three in the box. I believe with a wider sample we would see more obvious correlations. My sample is dismally small.

 

[TimZim]

I find many enders some times thats it. To day i did 26 boxes of halfs. one box had 3 enders only one other roll had a center coin. It gets my hopes up !!! every time...

 

[penman77]

^ Namster is correct. The mathematical field called statistics can answer some of these questions.

And if any of you ever find a box with machine wrapped rolls showing 10 or more enders, count them. Seal the box back up. I will pay you $500 for the box, plus $20 for each 90% ender and $10 for each 40% ender. I know that is crazy because that box probably doesn't have any silver except for the enders, right? I will even pay for the shipping.

I am talking about 50 rolls which came together in the form of a box. I am sure that some of you won't be able to get your heads around this, but a box which came showing 10 enders is a completely different animal than 10 rolls with enders which came from 20 different boxes and were then inserted into a randomly chosen box

 

[coinmojo]

Ironically today I got a box wit 1 ender and pulled exactly 20 40%'s

I believe this is an exception to the rule, and strongly belive a solid roll of silver was deposited at a bank and made it to brinks where it got mixed in with a batch of dumps of that guy who likes to put black lines obove JFK's head. But hey its been a long time since I pulled 20 from a box so WHOOO WHOOOI'll take it. :P

Mojo

 

[Yinzi50]

For a few lucky guys who had jumbo boxes before the science is science. One ender corresponds 10 silvers for a rich box. Years ago I had a batch of four boxes gave up 1563 pieces and I had 150+ enders. Yes there were extreme cases. I once saw 4 enders in a box but that were all I got. I also saw no ender but got 26 silvers. In the end, things work out as statistics says.
Here is a peek-boo for the newbies. 32 enders showing and 34 on the bottom side. HH

 

[namster]

So I picked up 4 boxes from my primary bank.

1 skunk, 2 with one 40% each and then:

1 ender: 16 40% and 1 63 Ben.

Those one ender boxes are a trip, they can be a total tease or a great box.

 

[baddbluff]

Is anyone taking into account the weight ratios of the coins?

A 90% half, 40% half, and clad half weigh 12.5g, 11.5g, and 11.34g, respectively. Maybe the heavier halves tend to find themselves on the ends of rolls, which may mess up your statistical analysis.

Also, I think I figured out why there are more silver halves back east than where I am... Silver halves don't migrate. They are more likely found in temperate or tropical zones than in the desert. In theory, though, a 5 ounce sparrow could carry a 12.5g Ken more easily than a 1 lb coconut.

HH
BB