MalteseFalcon
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Copper demand to rise....China has world's biggest copper demand
Codelco Says Copper Demand Rises on `Unimaginable' China Growth
By Matthew Craze and Cris Valerio
March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Codelco Executive President Jose Pablo Arellano, who runs the world's largest copper company, said demand for the metal will continue to rise through next year because of ``unimaginable'' new construction in China.
China, the biggest consumer of copper, is ``back in the market'' after record-high prices in May last year forced some manufacturers to slow purchases and rely on their stockpiles, halting the rally, Arellano said. Copper has jumped 27 percent since reaching a 10-month low on Feb. 2.
``They are building cities at an unimaginable rate,'' Arellano, 55, said yesterday during an interview at Codelco's headquarters in Santiago. ``Urbanization in general demands a lot of copper. China is going precisely through that stage of development.''
Codelco, which is owned by Chile's government, previously miscalculated China's role in a copper boom that began in 2002 and saw prices jump 65 cents a pound at the end of 2001 to a record $4.04 on May 11.
Arellano's predecessor, Juan Villarzu, predicted in 2006 that prices would average $1.50 to $1.70 a pound. Prices averaged about $3.06. A year earlier, the company predicted prices would fall.
Arellano, who took over from Villarzu in March 2006, declined to provide a price forecast today. He said strong demand for copper will remain strong for ``at least this year and half of next year.''
Reason for Optimism
``There's reason to be optimistic about this market, particularly when you look at the Asian sector,'' said William O'Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. ``There's been a constant underestimation for demand.''
Copper prices in New York rose to the highest in more than three months yesterday as China's copper imports in February doubled. Inventories in London Metal Exchange-monitored warehouses have declined for five consecutive weeks, while stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have more than doubled, signaling increased imports by China.
Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, predicts metals prices may be entering a ``super cycle'' as suppliers fail to keep up with world demand. The bank increased its forecast for copper prices in the first half by 1.1 percent to $2.73 a pound and cut its forecast for the second half by 3.2 percent to $3.
Chile's government copper statistics agency, called Cochilco, cut its price forecast on Jan. 31 to an average of $2.40 a pound, down from an October forecast of $2.80, saying global production will rise.
Housing Slowdown
To be sure, a slumping U.S. housing market may limit global demand growth for copper, Logic Advisors' O'Neill said. The U.S. is the world's second-largest user of the metal after China.
A slowdown in U.S. homebuilding helped shave 1.16 percentage points off growth in the fourth quarter. Builders account for 46 percent of copper use, putting about 400 pounds of the metal into the average U.S. home.
Arellano, who received a doctorate in economics from Harvard, said new mining projects are being delayed because of a global shortage of equipment. Truck makers including Caterpillar Inc. and Komatsu Ltd. are increasing production of earth-moving equipment.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, said March 19 that copper supply will be ``tight'' in the second quarter of the year amid rising Chinese demand.
BHP is considering an investment at its Escondida copper mine in northern Chile, the world's biggest, to maintain output, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Vicky Binns said in a March 21 note to clients. Melbourne-based BHP will also officially inaugurate its Spence mine in Chile's Atacama Desert next week.
Exploration Spending
Mining companies spent more on exploration in 2006 than ever before, according to researcher Halifax, Nova Scotia-based Metals Economics Group. Spending increased by 47 percent to $7.13 billion, the highest since Metal Economic's study began in 1989.
Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., which bought rival U.S. copper producer Phelps Dodge Corp. for $26 billion this year, will develop a copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo that may match its Grasberg operation in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine.
The surge in prices helped boost Codelco's profit 88 percent last year to $3.34 billion from $1.78 billion in 2005. The company's contribution to Chilean government coffers jumped 88 percent to $9.21 billion, the company said March 1.
Record Investment
Codelco will invest a record $2.2 billion in mine developments this year and plans to start its new Gaby project in 2008, its first new mine in 10 years, increasing overall production by 150,000 tons a year of refined copper. Chilean copper production should rise 5.1 percent to 5.63 million metric tons this year, the state-run Chilean Copper Commission said last month.
``With prices where they are, producers are trying to pull as much copper out of the ground as they can,'' said Ron Goodis, futures trading director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey.
Chile will play host to almost 1,000 copper producers, traders and buyers in Santiago next week for the CRU World Copper Conference and the annual dinner of Chile's Copper Studies Group, known as CESCO. Chile supplies about a third of the world's copper.
Mo Ahmadzadeh, president of metals trading at Mitsui Bussan Commodities in New York, said he plans to attend to figure out ``how growth in consumption will be satisfied.'' Copper producers also use the conference to negotiate treatment fees with smelting companies to turn their raw metal into refined copper, Ahmadzadeh said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a5E2r4pXLJaU&refer=latin_america
Codelco Says Copper Demand Rises on `Unimaginable' China Growth
By Matthew Craze and Cris Valerio
March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Codelco Executive President Jose Pablo Arellano, who runs the world's largest copper company, said demand for the metal will continue to rise through next year because of ``unimaginable'' new construction in China.
China, the biggest consumer of copper, is ``back in the market'' after record-high prices in May last year forced some manufacturers to slow purchases and rely on their stockpiles, halting the rally, Arellano said. Copper has jumped 27 percent since reaching a 10-month low on Feb. 2.
``They are building cities at an unimaginable rate,'' Arellano, 55, said yesterday during an interview at Codelco's headquarters in Santiago. ``Urbanization in general demands a lot of copper. China is going precisely through that stage of development.''
Codelco, which is owned by Chile's government, previously miscalculated China's role in a copper boom that began in 2002 and saw prices jump 65 cents a pound at the end of 2001 to a record $4.04 on May 11.
Arellano's predecessor, Juan Villarzu, predicted in 2006 that prices would average $1.50 to $1.70 a pound. Prices averaged about $3.06. A year earlier, the company predicted prices would fall.
Arellano, who took over from Villarzu in March 2006, declined to provide a price forecast today. He said strong demand for copper will remain strong for ``at least this year and half of next year.''
Reason for Optimism
``There's reason to be optimistic about this market, particularly when you look at the Asian sector,'' said William O'Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. ``There's been a constant underestimation for demand.''
Copper prices in New York rose to the highest in more than three months yesterday as China's copper imports in February doubled. Inventories in London Metal Exchange-monitored warehouses have declined for five consecutive weeks, while stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have more than doubled, signaling increased imports by China.
Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, predicts metals prices may be entering a ``super cycle'' as suppliers fail to keep up with world demand. The bank increased its forecast for copper prices in the first half by 1.1 percent to $2.73 a pound and cut its forecast for the second half by 3.2 percent to $3.
Chile's government copper statistics agency, called Cochilco, cut its price forecast on Jan. 31 to an average of $2.40 a pound, down from an October forecast of $2.80, saying global production will rise.
Housing Slowdown
To be sure, a slumping U.S. housing market may limit global demand growth for copper, Logic Advisors' O'Neill said. The U.S. is the world's second-largest user of the metal after China.
A slowdown in U.S. homebuilding helped shave 1.16 percentage points off growth in the fourth quarter. Builders account for 46 percent of copper use, putting about 400 pounds of the metal into the average U.S. home.
Arellano, who received a doctorate in economics from Harvard, said new mining projects are being delayed because of a global shortage of equipment. Truck makers including Caterpillar Inc. and Komatsu Ltd. are increasing production of earth-moving equipment.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, said March 19 that copper supply will be ``tight'' in the second quarter of the year amid rising Chinese demand.
BHP is considering an investment at its Escondida copper mine in northern Chile, the world's biggest, to maintain output, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Vicky Binns said in a March 21 note to clients. Melbourne-based BHP will also officially inaugurate its Spence mine in Chile's Atacama Desert next week.
Exploration Spending
Mining companies spent more on exploration in 2006 than ever before, according to researcher Halifax, Nova Scotia-based Metals Economics Group. Spending increased by 47 percent to $7.13 billion, the highest since Metal Economic's study began in 1989.
Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., which bought rival U.S. copper producer Phelps Dodge Corp. for $26 billion this year, will develop a copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo that may match its Grasberg operation in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine.
The surge in prices helped boost Codelco's profit 88 percent last year to $3.34 billion from $1.78 billion in 2005. The company's contribution to Chilean government coffers jumped 88 percent to $9.21 billion, the company said March 1.
Record Investment
Codelco will invest a record $2.2 billion in mine developments this year and plans to start its new Gaby project in 2008, its first new mine in 10 years, increasing overall production by 150,000 tons a year of refined copper. Chilean copper production should rise 5.1 percent to 5.63 million metric tons this year, the state-run Chilean Copper Commission said last month.
``With prices where they are, producers are trying to pull as much copper out of the ground as they can,'' said Ron Goodis, futures trading director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey.
Chile will play host to almost 1,000 copper producers, traders and buyers in Santiago next week for the CRU World Copper Conference and the annual dinner of Chile's Copper Studies Group, known as CESCO. Chile supplies about a third of the world's copper.
Mo Ahmadzadeh, president of metals trading at Mitsui Bussan Commodities in New York, said he plans to attend to figure out ``how growth in consumption will be satisfied.'' Copper producers also use the conference to negotiate treatment fees with smelting companies to turn their raw metal into refined copper, Ahmadzadeh said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a5E2r4pXLJaU&refer=latin_america
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