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Thread: Christmas silver or pure randomness?

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  1. #1
    us
    May 2018
    Maryland
    Tesoro Cibola Tesoro Golden Sabre Plus Garrett Master Hunter 7
    495
    623 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting

    Christmas silver or pure randomness?

    Picked up 2 boxes of halves from my local pickup bank yesterday and we went through them last night. I took one box and handed the other to my wife. Usually she outhunts me and I take credit for it by telling her that I try to give her the better (sealed) box. But last night, my box yielded 11 silver, 4 of which were 90%, including a 1951 Ben. That's my best box in 12 weeks. Her box? One impaired proof and no silver.

    Today, I'll dump at the credit union branch where I found a barber dime in the trash can, take the cash to a different branch of my pick-up bank about 20 miles away from the dump bank and buy another 2 boxes. I love to find the silver - but its more fun when we are both finding it.

    I try to combine tasks on these drives. The dump bank is in the same town as an MVA where I have an appointment to renew my driver's license. This new "Real ID" is ridiculous. After driving for 48 years, I now have to prove that I am a US citizen and legal resident?
    1. Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.

    2. Always do right; this will gratify some and astonish the rest.
    - Mark Twain






    Final 2018 CRH: Boxes of halves: 68
    Total skunk boxes: 30
    90% halves: 82
    40% halves: 171

  2. #2
    Charter Member
    us
    Dec 2008
    St. Augustine, FL
    3,958
    1399 times
    From my experience (not lately), the Christmas Silver trend has proven true. I usually find an increase in silver beginning around the end of Oct - end of Jan. It has been postulated that gift giving budgets are strained and the old rolls in the closet are cashed in to bridge the difference. Whether that is children wanting to give a gift for mom or a spouse wanting to make others Christmas Dreams come true, it happens. There is also an uptick in burglary as families take vacations leaving the sock drawer unguarded. The month of January is when the credit card bills come due and the realization that they have exceeded what they can pay for. All just speculation.
    rook3434 and Megalodon like this.

  3. #3

    May 2017
    Garrett AT Pro
    236
    215 times
    Metal Detecting
    I was mentioning to my wife that the uptick in silver at Christmas is due to people cashing in their old coins in order to buy presents. Being in the medical field as a Physical Therapist for mostly geriatric patients, she countered with the theory that older folks tend to die over the holidays. This being due to colder weather and flu season, and also the terminal wanting to live until they see everyone one last time at Thanksgiving or Christmas before they give up the ghost. Their widows or children cash their collections in. Sad to think of it that way. Perhaps the silver rise is due to a combination of both theories.
    catherine1 and Megalodon like this.

  4. #4
    us
    Feb 2012
    2,502
    1955 times
    Coin roll hunting
    I believe the Xmas silver has started, been seeing fewer & fewer dime skunk boxes, and also getting a larger number of silvers per box.
    Megalodon likes this.

  5. #5
    us
    Jun 2014
    The 2nd State
    723
    820 times
    Coin Roll Hunting
    We went on a "fun run" yesterday to try to vacuum up any of the so-called Christmas silver in our area... We did around a 150 mile loop, hit up around 40 banks and were only able to scrape up $58 loose halves, $560 CWR and $350 MWR. 8 x 40% from the lot, so obviously it wasn't a worthwhile trip. We've done days where we've hit up 60 banks in 8 hours, different areas, but the result is almost always similar.

    The logic makes sense: people need money so they turn in coins, but practically, for us at least, it never holds true. It is pure randomness, especially with the number of other hunters out there, with either tellers saving for them or beating you to the bank that day, or sniping tellers themselves... Whenever we do a "fun run" we very rarely ever come out ahead after the expense of gas.

    As a side note, for all of the banks and the CWR we've scrounged over the year we've still never found even one solid roll. It is absolute luck.
    Megalodon likes this.
    2018 CRH - Updated thru December year end

    $234,862 halves
    ---455 boxes---$5200 CWR---$1420 MWR---$742 loose
    ---90% - 92------90% - 10------90% - 0-----90% - 10-----> 112
    ---40% - 282-----40% - 62------40% - 4------40% - 40----> 388
    Ken-454---Ben-27---WL-18---Barb-1---Total ---> 500 Silvers/98.80 oz.

    Notables: 1905-S Barber ender

    "The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion." -Camus

  6. #6
    us
    May 2018
    Maryland
    Tesoro Cibola Tesoro Golden Sabre Plus Garrett Master Hunter 7
    495
    623 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    I picked up my two boxes yesterday at a branch 20 miles away and we looked through them last night. More randomness - but this time, the roles were reversed and I got one 40% in my box while my wife got four 40% and two 90%, all Kennedys. I planned to dump these at a distant branch of my credit union today before taking an old friend out for her birthday lobster lunch, but she was ill today, so my dump plans are being re-thought. I'm trying to spread out my dumping to avoid being (too much of) a pest.
    1. Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.

    2. Always do right; this will gratify some and astonish the rest.
    - Mark Twain






    Final 2018 CRH: Boxes of halves: 68
    Total skunk boxes: 30
    90% halves: 82
    40% halves: 171

  7. #7
    us
    Aug 2012
    Massachusetts
    Whites, Garrett
    1,195
    834 times
    Gold Panning, Metal detecting, beach combing, shooting, photography, genealogy, gardening
    hmm, my last two boxes this week (halves) were skunks once again
    Ferengi Rules of Acquisition

    #59 "Free advice is seldom cheap"

    #92 "Never confuse wisdom with luck"

    2019 Totals: Halves: 14 40% 1 90%, Dimes: 6, Quarters: 0

    2019 GOAL: 300 silver Currently 21/300

    Boxes searched: Halves boxes 7, bags 0, CWR 0, loose 0 : Dimes boxes 0, bags 1, BWR 0, CWR 0 : Quarters boxes 0, bags 0, CWR 0

    MILES Driven 122

  8. #8
    us
    May 2018
    Maryland
    Tesoro Cibola Tesoro Golden Sabre Plus Garrett Master Hunter 7
    495
    623 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Quote Originally Posted by Avago View Post
    We went on a "fun run" yesterday to try to vacuum up any of the so-called Christmas silver in our area... We did around a 150 mile loop, hit up around 40 banks and were only able to scrape up $58 loose halves, $560 CWR and $350 MWR. 8 x 40% from the lot, so obviously it wasn't a worthwhile trip. We've done days where we've hit up 60 banks in 8 hours, different areas, but the result is almost always similar.

    The logic makes sense: people need money so they turn in coins, but practically, for us at least, it never holds true. It is pure randomness, especially with the number of other hunters out there, with either tellers saving for them or beating you to the bank that day, or sniping tellers themselves... Whenever we do a "fun run" we very rarely ever come out ahead after the expense of gas.

    As a side note, for all of the banks and the CWR we've scrounged over the year we've still never found even one solid roll. It is absolute luck.
    I like that you described it as a "fun run" because we agree that it is not actually worth the expense. We do it because every wrapped roll is potentially full of surprises. Each one is full of suspense. And when we do pluck out that very infrequent piece of silver treasure, all is (temporarily) right with the world - and that is sometimes a necessary distraction. I'm glad we had this distraction from the last two weeks of the stock market. But the math tells me that I would have had to find over 25,000 90% halves to make up for the (paper) losses in my IRAs and 401K.
    wildcarrot and Avago like this.
    1. Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.

    2. Always do right; this will gratify some and astonish the rest.
    - Mark Twain






    Final 2018 CRH: Boxes of halves: 68
    Total skunk boxes: 30
    90% halves: 82
    40% halves: 171

  9. #9
    us
    Aug 2012
    Massachusetts
    Whites, Garrett
    1,195
    834 times
    Gold Panning, Metal detecting, beach combing, shooting, photography, genealogy, gardening
    I retired this past Oct 1st, actually a voluntary layoff but used it as an excuse to retire. anyhow I had to roll my 401k over. I put 25% into a CD ladder (that is doing fine) 50% into conservative "old people" funds" (that is down a bit) and 50% into a moderate growth fund (that is hurting) I should have put it all into a CD. Oh well too late now will ride it out...

    ANYHOW BACK TO THE THREAD

    I am going to the bank today that will sell bags and see if they have any in the vault, they only sell the full bags, I will take them some cookies and sweets. I will also see where the various bags stand, i.e. how much is in each one on the machine. My banks said no half boxes this week and next due to the holidays disrupting schedules so will hope for bags.

    CRHing is like metal detecting, you don't make enough to offset you expenses, especially if you count them all realistically, but it is the quest. I feel like Indiana Jones searching for the Holy Grail. Yes I get down, depressed, on each skunk but them get super happy by a single silver, way out of all proportion to its value.

    I am up over the cost of gas used for this year, but I had 2 big scores in Jan/Feb and nothing the rest of the year, well an occaisional silver but mostly skunks until Mid-Nov when I got a partial bag and hit for 55 silver (45 40% and 10 90%) but this year has been unusual in that I found more than in my entire life. But to be honest this is the first year I have done boxes and bags before it was just asking tellers for halves.

    But it is the thrill of the chase normally I would be better off making coffee at home 3 days a week, still going out 4 days a week, and buying junk silver but where is the thrill in that?

    It is why last year I let the wife buy me two "UNOPENED" Carson City Morgan Dollars on ebay and give them to me for Christmas, I knew they were a scam, well not really a scam but most if not all sellers open them, check them, substitute so/so for good coins and reseal them. BUT it was the thrill of what might be even though I knew it would not be what I hoped. I ended up with a 1884 CC MS64 (nice) and a 1882 CC MS63, would have been better buying the coins at a coin store but where is the thrill?
    TxAg likes this.
    Ferengi Rules of Acquisition

    #59 "Free advice is seldom cheap"

    #92 "Never confuse wisdom with luck"

    2019 Totals: Halves: 14 40% 1 90%, Dimes: 6, Quarters: 0

    2019 GOAL: 300 silver Currently 21/300

    Boxes searched: Halves boxes 7, bags 0, CWR 0, loose 0 : Dimes boxes 0, bags 1, BWR 0, CWR 0 : Quarters boxes 0, bags 0, CWR 0

    MILES Driven 122

  10. #10
    us
    May 2018
    Maryland
    Tesoro Cibola Tesoro Golden Sabre Plus Garrett Master Hunter 7
    495
    623 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Good Morning Ben,

    Congrats on your retirement! I retired in 2017 and also planned to roll over my 401K and 457 into IRAs but waited too darn long. I miscalculated the silver equivalent lost the last 3 weeks, at least on paper, and its closer to 50K 90% halves, or equivalent to about the next 9 years of pension checks. The only move I made was a trivial one - to buy a thousand shares of a high dividend stock yesterday. In this market, I strongly agree with CD ladders and plan to do more. The credit unions where I dump have the best rates and they should be going up. I wonder if showing some skin in the game with CDs might be a way to delay the loss of the coin machines. Maybe that is wishful thinking but I'll certainly sleep better with the security...The last time I did CD ladders was just before the "S&L Crisis" of the early 80's; the best I got then was 19.5%. Today I'll be happy with 2.5%.

    I asked about any possible holiday disruptions in coin pickups and was told that everything was normal. The bank has put my standing order in with their commercial order and has been perfectly reliable.

    Nice that your CC Morgans are now seeing the light of day and are appreciated after being hidden away in bags for over 100 years. In a way, those Morgans foresaw the NIFC halves of today.

    I agree about the similarity with metal detecting. If it could be measured, I suspect the chemical reaction in the brain to seeing that silver rim is the same or very similar to that when we pinpoint a silver coin in the ground. I'm not volunteering for that study - I get punctured enough by the Red Cross about every 10 weeks. I've been donating blood since 1975. When I've felt helpless in the face of tragedies like the OK City bombing and 9-11, I donate more often. Only the latest blood donation, last week, resulted in any lingering pain.

    Best wishes to you at Christmas and throughout the year. If i get banned for going off-topic (possible in another tnet thread where I attempted to explain how evolution works...), I'll miss our conversations! (update - just heard from mod and my posts were not rules violations for explaining evolution to a couple of folks)
    Last edited by Megalodon; Dec 22, 2018 at 12:28 PM.
    PetesPockets55, Dozer D and TxAg like this.
    1. Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.

    2. Always do right; this will gratify some and astonish the rest.
    - Mark Twain






    Final 2018 CRH: Boxes of halves: 68
    Total skunk boxes: 30
    90% halves: 82
    40% halves: 171

  11. #11

    May 2017
    Garrett AT Pro
    236
    215 times
    Metal Detecting
    Yes, congrats on retirement Ben & Megalodon! I also took a voluntary layoff in 2017. They did give me a nice severance, so I was pretty happy to get off of the oil patch merry go round. They’ve already had 2 more layoffs since I left, and there could be more given the dropping oil price.
    Anyway, back to the thread. The wife had a good idea and convinced me to order several boxes for the city where the rest of the family lives and where we are visiting for Christmas. This because the last time I visited, all the halves I bought from banks (opened boxes, loose rolls, and loose coins) had been searched already. At least I have a fighting chance with the sealed boxes of MWRs.
    Megalodon likes this.

  12. #12
    us
    Aug 2012
    Massachusetts
    Whites, Garrett
    1,195
    834 times
    Gold Panning, Metal detecting, beach combing, shooting, photography, genealogy, gardening
    Didn't get halves this week but just got back from the bank and bought their only bag of nickels and quarters. Don't expect much from the quarters as they come from a laundramat and I have always heard that the people that own laundramats always search for silver, we will see

    I am also looking at the nickels for DD's etc
    Ferengi Rules of Acquisition

    #59 "Free advice is seldom cheap"

    #92 "Never confuse wisdom with luck"

    2019 Totals: Halves: 14 40% 1 90%, Dimes: 6, Quarters: 0

    2019 GOAL: 300 silver Currently 21/300

    Boxes searched: Halves boxes 7, bags 0, CWR 0, loose 0 : Dimes boxes 0, bags 1, BWR 0, CWR 0 : Quarters boxes 0, bags 0, CWR 0

    MILES Driven 122

  13. #13
    us
    Feb 2012
    2,502
    1955 times
    Coin roll hunting
    Love all your retirement stories guys, I technically retired in 2003 when our mill was bought out, had a good ESOP payout, been helping my son with his business since then, but then the Dr said no more work after this last hospital go round in Oct. Had it not been for the CRH hobby, I would have crawled the walls at home up one side & down the other.
    Every day now I find myself either going to some bank(s), or roll checking, rerolling, or dumping. I just wish i had continued this hobby earlier.
    Megalodon and TxAg like this.

  14. #14

    May 2017
    Garrett AT Pro
    236
    215 times
    Metal Detecting
    Quote Originally Posted by Dozer D View Post
    Love all your retirement stories guys, I technically retired in 2003 when our mill was bought out, had a good ESOP payout, been helping my son with his business since then, but then the Dr said no more work after this last hospital go round in Oct. Had it not been for the CRH hobby, I would have crawled the walls at home up one side & down the other.
    Every day now I find myself either going to some bank(s), or roll checking, rerolling, or dumping. I just wish i had continued this hobby earlier.
    Sounds like you are back to normal Dozer, glad to hear you are doing better after your recent hospital stay and posting again! The wife is on the verge of retiring as well and can’t understand how I stay busy all day, lol! Between church, the gym, and CRH, the time really does fly. So glad I got back into the hobby a couple of years ago as it gives me purpose. Have decided to start gifting finished Dansco albums to my grown children starting with the Kennedys, then start new Kennedy albums for the Grands. They are too young to give them albums now, so I have plenty of time to put a nice set together. They will be P&D albums all from CRH except for that dang 1970-D, I have yet to find even one!
    Megalodon likes this.

  15. #15
    us
    Aug 2012
    Massachusetts
    Whites, Garrett
    1,195
    834 times
    Gold Panning, Metal detecting, beach combing, shooting, photography, genealogy, gardening
    I used to wonder how retired people said they had not time, well...

    I CRH, regular coin collecting, stamp collecting, do gun shows to display my Boston Police Collection, rifle/pistol shooting, reloading, scrollsawing (portraits and Christmas ornaments), Genealogy, Photography, Astronomy (Trustee at the Seagrave Observatory in RI), Solar imaging ( Jeff Padell?s albums | Flickr ), model building, website building, Church, gardening, HO trains (building a home layout) I know I am missing a couple hobbies...
    PetesPockets55 and Megalodon like this.
    Ferengi Rules of Acquisition

    #59 "Free advice is seldom cheap"

    #92 "Never confuse wisdom with luck"

    2019 Totals: Halves: 14 40% 1 90%, Dimes: 6, Quarters: 0

    2019 GOAL: 300 silver Currently 21/300

    Boxes searched: Halves boxes 7, bags 0, CWR 0, loose 0 : Dimes boxes 0, bags 1, BWR 0, CWR 0 : Quarters boxes 0, bags 0, CWR 0

    MILES Driven 122

 

 
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