What are the chances??

[Quin]

They're low.

I recently picked up a box of pennies and was looking through the rolls for enders. I do this to get a rough idea of what I can expect from a box so that I can decide what kind of video to use it in. I didn't see anything unusual until the last ten rolls. When I saw this ender, I couldn't believe it...



Chances of finding an Indian Head Penny in a box: roughly 1 in 100
Chances of finding it on the end of a roll in that box: 1 in 25
Overall, the estimated likelihood of this happening is 1 in 2500, or 0.04%. This is no doubt a once in a lifetime find!

I decided to open this box with my brother in a competition coin roll hunt. He knows more about coins and grading than I do, so I thought it would be good to have him there to provide some information on the coin's condition. I also figured it would be a pretty good box, despite this being the only ender.

The rest of the box was pretty good. No more Indians popped up, but there were some decent finds. We filmed the unwrapping, date reveal, and the rest of the box as we went through it. Check it out below if you're interested. Thanks for watching and happy hunting!

 

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[GB1]

nice finds

 

[FormerTeller]

Thanks for throwing up the picture and the narrative as well as the video.

[emoji120]

 

[Dozer D]

Quin: isn't this an old old video that you showed on U-Tube a few years ago? Looks mighty familiar.

 

[Quin]

Thanks for throwing up the picture and the narrative as well as the video.

[emoji120]

Sure thing. We decided as a community that this would be the right way to make these posts here a while back and I've been doing them that way ever since.

 

[Quin]

Quin: isn't this an old old video that you showed on U-Tube a few years ago? Looks mighty familiar.

Nope, I filmed this video with my brother Kevin on January 2nd, just a few days ago. Which video are you thinking of?

 

[Dozer D]

Quin: it was another one that you found an IH ender, looked almost identical. This was the one that I could not pull up on TN, but had to go to UTube to view. Either way, it's nice to find an IH especially in a bank rolled box of pennies. It's been a long time since my last IH had been found.

 

[Quin]

This is the only time I have ever found an Indian head ender.

The first Indian I found was in the middle of the roll, about 2.5 years ago:


The second Indian I found was also in the middle of the roll, but I pulled it out on camera. This was back in March (and caused quite a controversy):


And my brother Kevin found one as well, back in September:


We have found 4 Indian heads total in roughly 3 years of coin roll hunting. This was my first Indian head ender though!

 

[enamel7]

I'm just gonna bite my lip after looking at the photo.

 

[Coincrazed]

I'm just gonna bite my lip after looking at the photo.

I guess a lot of these YouTuber kids just don't understand that posting YouTube videos about CRH is actually sabotaging their own hobby.....

 

[Quin]

I'm just gonna bite my lip after looking at the photo.

Enamel...I know it’s a good looking coin, but that’s taking things a little too far...

 

[Lunchboxx]

What is so special about 2009?

 

[Quin]

What is so special about 2009?

They have lower mintage numbers relative to other coins around the same time. Check out this article to learn more: http://2009lincolncents.com/2009-lincoln-cent-mintages/

 

[Inspector]

Great find!!!!

 

[LooseChange]

What is so unbelievable about it?

Search ebay for "indian head penny roll" and 21 of the first 25 hits show an indian head ender in a machine roll.
Change the search to "sold listings" and you see that over 50 have sold in the last 2 days. Apparently people are finding these enders every day and listing them on ebay.

meh.

 

[Quin]

What is so unbelievable about it?

Search ebay for "indian head penny roll" and 21 of the first 25 hits show an indian head ender in a machine roll.
Change the search to "sold listings" and you see that over 50 have sold in the last 2 days. Apparently people are finding these enders every day and listing them on ebay.

meh.

Mhm...and if you want to get a glimpse of how often they ACTUALLY show up, go check out the end roll finds thread. The last Indian ender posted there was by tanz 82 on May 19, 2015.

 

[LooseChange]

What is so unbelievable about it?

Search ebay for "indian head penny roll" and 21 of the first 25 hits show an indian head ender in a machine roll.
Change the search to "sold listings" and you see that over 50 have sold in the last 2 days. Apparently people are finding these enders every day and listing them on ebay.

meh.

Mhm...and if you want to get a glimpse of how often they ACTUALLY show up, go check out the end roll finds thread. The last Indian ender posted there was by tanz 82 on May 19, 2015.

You convinced me, UNBELIEVABLE is accurate.

 

[Rosco53]

"Chances of finding an Indian Head Penny in a box: roughly 1 in 100
Chances of finding it on the end of a roll in that box: 1 in 25
Overall, the estimated likelihood of this happening is 1 in 2500, or 0.04%. This is no doubt a once in a lifetime find!"

I think your numbers maybe off there.
If you only have 1 IHP in every 100 boxes, that's 1/250,000 cents to begin with (0.0004%), of which 1/25 (0.04%) are "enders", right? That gives you 0.000016% of an IHP being an ender, if your initial ratio is correct. I'm at about %0.00067 IHP (6/893000), but search bags so don't have to worry about enders. Either way, great find, rather jealous.

 

[Quin]

"Chances of finding an Indian Head Penny in a box: roughly 1 in 100
Chances of finding it on the end of a roll in that box: 1 in 25
Overall, the estimated likelihood of this happening is 1 in 2500, or 0.04%. This is no doubt a once in a lifetime find!"

I think your numbers maybe off there.
If you only have 1 IHP in every 100 boxes, that's 1/250,000 cents to begin with (0.0004%), of which 1/25 (0.04%) are "enders", right? That gives you 0.000016% of an IHP being an ender, if your initial ratio is correct. I'm at about %0.00067 IHP (6/893000), but search bags so don't have to worry about enders. Either way, great find, rather jealous.

I think you calculated something like “given any penny, what are the chances that it is an Indian head ender”

I calculated “given any box, what are the chances that it has an Indian head ender in it.” But probability is hard and I may be wrong lol

 

[enamel7]

Enamel...I know it’s a good looking coin, but that’s taking things a little too far...

You took it the wrong way.