Do enders predict more silver success?

[Megalodon]

Picked up 2 Brinks boxes this afternoon and opened the first box. I had some help from my usual assistant. She sniffed out a silver ender that turned out to be a 1966 and an impaired proof



Upon removing the top 25 rolls, found a reverse ender that turned out to be a 1964 and that exposed this Wender in the bottom layer of rolls, so 3 total enders in box 1



Upon starting to open rolls, I came across the Elvis half and knew this box would be no "Hound Dog" and wished "Don't be Cruel". The Elvis half had me "All Shook Up" but I pushed on, thinking "It's Now or Never"



The rest of the box produced 5 Walkers, 1 Franklin, 2x1964, 1x1965, 2x1966, 1x1967, 1x1968 and 1x1969, so 14 silver in all. Plus a 1987-D and 4 impaired proofs



After the first box, I knew there would be no "Heartbreak Hotel" tonight. "Suspicious Minds" about box 2 - it produced 1 1966 half with an old tape mark across the front.

 

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[Holt0222]

That’s an amazing box in my opinion. Have done a few thousand dollars in halves and have never found anything older than the kennedys.

 

[Argentium]

Well at very least, a silver ender is one you know you got ! At least it strongly suggests that the coins making up your box , have not been silver culled by a machine that has that capability .

 

[Megalodon]

Well at very least, a silver ender is one you know you got ! At least it strongly suggests that the coins making up your box , have not been silver culled by a machine that has that capability .

The only negative about a silver ender is the circular scratch left by the roll crimping machine. I haven't had the scratch ruin a valuable coin yet, but on a W.L. half, it goes right across Miss Liberty's head. This one got a small gouge on the head, but it was well-worn anyway.

 

[Megalodon]

That’s an amazing box in my opinion. Have done a few thousand dollars in halves and have never found anything older than the kennedys.

Thanks Holt0222, Five Walkers in one box is my personal best. I got 5 spread out in three boxes two weeks ago. I've yet to find a Barber in a box - although I found two Barber dimes while dumping at my credit unions - one in the trash can and one in the machine.

 

[Holt0222]

Since I just moved I am thinking of stopping by my local bank and trying the coin hunting again since I’m in a larger area now.

 

[Megalodon]

A more dense population with more banks means greater opportunities for loose coins and CWRs - where the % of old silver is much better than in boxes. In a rural area such as mine, ordering boxes is necessary. I've had some very long skunk streaks.

I haven't been back since the mid-1980's, but the place where I saw the most banks was Victoria TX. I've wondered if there are some CRH'ers doing well there!

 

[Sleepy Holow]

You had me at Wender...you really "Can't Help Falling in Love" with this box!

 

[Greastart]

I'd say you have answered your own question. However, like always, there are exceptions and past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

[Uncleslick18]

Very nice score!

 

[GMan00001]

Although the actual results will vary, if you look at both ends of all rolls, that is 10% of the box. In theory, if the silver is scattered equally randomly throughout the box, you should get 10x that count in silver halves in the box. In actuality, the percentage only works out once you average in many boxes as some boxes will have more enders than they should and some will have less.

 

[Megalodon]

Although the actual results will vary, if you look at both ends of all rolls, that is 10% of the box. In theory, if the silver is scattered equally randomly throughout the box, you should get 10x that count in silver halves in the box. In actuality, the percentage only works out once you average in many boxes as some boxes will have more enders than they should and some will have less.

Great point! So if a 10% sample of a box of 1000 produces 3 silver enders, then the remaining 900 coins should produce, on average, 27 silvers for a box total of 30 silver coins. So in this case, the enders overestimated the observed total. I haven't always recorded my enders, so I don't have enough data to look at enders as predictors of total silver/box. You are right that results from many boxes would be necessary. For example, two weeks ago, I got 30 silvers in a box that showed only 1 ender; that would have predicted only 10 silvers - in that case, much less than what was observed. It does seem that seeing enders suggests that the box might be more likely to have additional silver than a box with no enders.

 

[Megalodon]

I'd say you have answered your own question. However, like always, there are exceptions and past performance is not indicative of future results.

I expect skunk streaks of varying lengths. The box to box variation is very high and the silver is not normally distributed. Luck (and persistence) has a lot to do with finding silver (well that and maybe a silver sniffing cat who examines every open box).

 

[Dozer D]

Great box, you don't hear too often from the other guys of a large catch as yours, far and in between. Congrats.

 

[smokeythecat]

This was my best, 2016.


http://www.treasurenet.com/forums/my-best-finds/524057-2016-year-silver-half-dollar-crh-ing.html

 

[ArkieBassMan]

I quit looking for enders as it can only lead to disappointment.

 

[Avago]

Great point! So if a 10% sample of a box of 1000 produces 3 silver enders, then the remaining 900 coins should produce, on average, 27 silvers for a box total of 30 silver coins. So in this case, the enders overestimated the observed total. I haven't always recorded my enders, so I don't have enough data to look at enders as predictors of total silver/box. You are right that results from many boxes would be necessary. For example, two weeks ago, I got 30 silvers in a box that showed only 1 ender; that would have predicted only 10 silvers - in that case, much less than what was observed. It does seem that seeing enders suggests that the box might be more likely to have additional silver than a box with no enders.

Out of my 386 boxes from this year so far I am averaging 11.5 silvers per ender. I did 9.8 silvers per ender in 2018 and 11 silvers per ender in 2017. With a big enough sample size in theory there should be 10 silvers per ender based on pure odds.

If you look at some odd individual boxes I've gotten this year, I've had a box this year with 4 enders but only 13 silvers (instead of 40), a box with 1 ender with 22 (instead of 10). It averages out eventually!

 

[Megalodon]

Out of my 386 boxes from this year so far I am averaging 11.5 silvers per ender. I did 9.8 silvers per ender in 2018 and 11 silvers per ender in 2017. With a big enough sample size in theory there should be 10 silvers per ender based on pure odds.

If you look at some odd individual boxes I've gotten this year, I've had a box this year with 4 enders but only 13 silvers (instead of 40), a box with 1 ender with 22 (instead of 10). It averages out eventually!

Avago, Thanks for sharing your actual summary data - that is exactly what I was hoping for. I need to do a better job with recording my own results.

You are doing a lot of boxes (about 12/week?) and must be busy with dumping. I'd like to search more boxes, but spreading out my dumps among all my credit union branches would require a lot of driving! Doing 2-3 boxes per week requires only local dumping.

 

[smokeythecat]

My banks are getting mad at me.

 

[Megalodon]

My banks are getting mad at me.

I realize that I'm making extra work for the tellers when they have to come over to the coin machine and do a bag change because my halves have filled the bag. I've been lucky that they are so gracious with me, telling me not to worry about it and that its part of the job. Some tell me it gets them out from behind the counter to do something else and some like to talk (and so do I!). I try to limit my dumps to reasonable quantities of coin - especially since the coin machines have only 1 bag for halves. For example, this morning, I will dump $300 at one credit union, drive down the street for less than a mile and dump another $300 at another credit union. At the first credit union, I am the only one dumping halves, so this means they only have to change bags for me monthly; the other credit union has another CRH'er dumping halves so the bag fills are more often, but they appreciate that I (unlike some others) make an attempt to limit my quantities. Three other branches of that credit union have contracted with coinstar - which means no bag changes. But those branches are in another county. I'll dump up to $900 in those machines. If I dump at all three branches with coinstars, it means a roundtrip of over 150 miles.

I learned a lot about CRH etiquette from BenCartright last year. His advice was helpful and appreciated.