How vulnerable will you be?

[Cappy Z.]

Forget the Mayan prophecies and think about NASA's 2008 report on the coming solar flares between 2012 and 2015. There is a real chance large parts of the US will be without power for months.

The question is, what will your neighborhood be like in the days and weeks that follow?

No police communication, no TV radio internet. No lights. No gasoline station pumps.

Virtually no communication capabilities for months.

Strange but real. This could be a very real probability. It could get very ugly.

 

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[lonesomebob]

A shotgun arifle and a four wheel drive and this country boy will survive, maybe not the 4wd even. Bob

 

[BigDan]

I plan to rush to Wallyworld...

...in a panic. I'll make sure my step-kids and wife are in several locations of which I will not have a clue. My cell phone, of course, is not on me.

I'll have 1/8th a tank of gas, and my car will not be in good working order.

If I have this planned properly, I'll be trying to figure things out as I go. I'll lose count of the pedestrians I crush as I decide to park in the "seasonal" aisle of the store itself.

I'll jump out of the car and start fighting with other crazies for the last gallon of bottled water. It will spill on the floor. Then, I'll try to make my way to the sporting goods section (which by now, is just a crater in the ground from foot traffic alone).

That's the start of my plan, suggestions?

 

[Iron Patch]

Can you say.


Y2K.

 

[bootybay]

I have the foods covered, the water covered, the medical am putting together.. tons of oil lamps large supply of lamp oil...tons of sterno, battery operated tv and radio.. Protection is covered..

only thing i am considering getting is a wood stove ..

 

[mainer]

A shotgun arifle and a four wheel drive and this country boy will survive, maybe not the 4wd even. Bob

I second that.

 

[Cappy Z.]

A new study from the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a worst-case scenario solar storm.

Damage to power grids and other communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation.

The prediction is based in part on a major solar storm in 1859 that caused telegraph wires to short out in the United States and Europe, igniting widespread fires.

It was perhaps the worst in the past 200 years, according to the new study, and with the advent of modern power grids and satellites, much more is at risk.

“A contemporary repetition of the [1859] event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions,” the researchers conclude.

‘Command and control might be lost’

When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth.

The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.

Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm - the type expected to occur about once a century - could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.

Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems.

“Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on,” the report states.

Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt.

“Emergency services would be strained, and command and control might be lost,” write the researchers, led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

“Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems,” Baker said in a statement released with the report.

Stormy past

Solar storms have had significant effects in modern time:

- In 1989, the sun unleashed a tempest that knocked out power to all of Quebec, Canada.

- A remarkable 2003 rampage included 10 major solar flares over a two-week period, knocking out two Earth-orbiting satellites and crippling an instrument aboard a Mars orbiter.

“Obviously, the sun is Earth’s life blood,” said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA. “To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun’s activity.”

“Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet,” the report states. “Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth’s radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting.”

Rush to prepare

The race is on for better forecasting abilities, as the next peak in solar activity is expected to come around 2012.

While the sun is in a lull now, activity can flare up at any moment, and severe space weather - how severe, nobody knows - will ramp up a year or two before the peak.

Some scientists expect the next peak to bring more severe events than other recent peaks.

“A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities,” the report states. “Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future.”

The report was commissioned and funded by NASA. Experts from around the world in industry, government and academia participated. It was released this week.

Friday, January 09, 2009
By Robert Roy Britt

 

[aa battery]

got it covered

 

[Rich in Texas]

We will bug out to our ranch in West Texas. Can see for miles in every direction. Guns food and meds are covered!

 

[Sandman]

Won't help to have a generator since you won't be able to buy gasoline. Natural gas is the best for providing power if that goes out. If you lived out in the sticks you'd be lots better off of course.

 

[simplemaninpr]

Probably have to DOG PADDLE my way to the states.

Ernest

 

[Cappy Z.]

Seriously, What about people that work? The job sites will be non functioning. The roads will be non functioning. A massive crime wave is certainly going to happen. I mean this is a real scenario that just might happen.

What about being separated by miles from your loved ones, your family members. College students away from home stranded.

Folks..this could in fact be a historically dangerous time in America.

 

[packerbacker]

just added another 1,100 rounds of 22 long rifle ammo to an evergrowing stockpile of ammunition in at least 9 different calibers. My sons and one of my brothers are also heavily into reloading and are reloading brass by the pounds! We have tons of shotgun shells so they don't reload any of those, just pistol and rifle stuff. Any time primers or bullets come out on the market at a reasonable rate, they buy it up. Not pure survivalists but not pure chumps either; between stored food, 3 generators, livestock, the garden, fruit trees, 4x4's, a couple quads, horses and even the motorcycles, we can last a while. Got 488 lbs. of homegrown beef gonna be ready to fill the freezers next week and 3 more head still on the hoof waiting their turn. Between the three households, 6 of us are certified scuba divers and, if we have to, can spearfish a lot of food in the river, we don't have to hope the fish are biting.

 

[RGINN]

If it does happen, it will separate the wheat from the chaff. May not be as chaotic and crime ridden as some folks believe. I've been through some natural disasters where everything shut down and folks seemed to get along better then than they did before.

 

[YankeeDownSouthAdv.]

very interesting thread.

 

[Excavator]

I read back in Nov. that we should see the start of this by early 2010. Is this it?

February 12, 2010 - Latest Sunspot 1046 Emitting Huge M-Flares.

Sunspot 1046 is crackling with M-class solar flares.
Image source: SOHO. See SOHO solar movies by date.
http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/soho_movie_theater

 

[dogcaught]

Damage to power grids and other communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation.

....And they'll call it Solar Storm Katrina.

 

[ivan salis]

alcohol will burn for liquid feul -- shine time

 

[Cappy Z.]

alcohol will burn for liquid feul -- shine time

... always one step ahead of the pack...

 

[Burnt Chimney]

"Will the Waffle House close? " James Gregory

Seriously ,I save all my old motor oil to a 55 gallon drum it burns really well also.