High Oil Prices . . . The Other Shoe Is About To Drop!

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Smee

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Wasn't the last economic collapse fun? Before anyone accuses this of being political, please read the entire post. It is not for or against any party, just observations of what lead to all the fun times we have had the last couple of years with all of the foreclosure mess, high unemployment and poor economic performance.

Does anyone remember when the throttle on the outboard motor in the cesspool got stuck? You know what I mean . . . when the scat hit the fan, so to speak?

Beginning in shortly before Katrina, speculators became heavily involved in oil trading (sound familiar yet?) and because of their "speculating" prices began to increase dramatically. In 2006 or 2007 (don't remember which), we saw $4.00/gallon gas for the first time, about the same time we began hearing about people who couldn't afford to pay their mortgages because they hadn't planned on having to face such expenses.

This was when the foreclosure mess got its start. As more and more foreclosed homes came onto the market, demand for new houses began to decline. When that happens, home builders begin getting laid off or fired because there is no work for them to do. Thus, not only does unemployment increase, but spending necessarily decreases as people have less and less disposable income. The ripple effect is why there is now almost 10% unemployment in this country, but let's go back to 2007.

Now, when one factors in the increases in fuel costs along with the decrease in spending in other areas, we were setting the stage for the financial collapse we saw two years ago.

Sure, during the year leading up to the presidential election of 2008 we did see fuel prices drop dramatically. Does anyone remember why? "Drill baby, drill!" became the cry of some in politics. Once the U.S. declared that they were going to boost domestic production, oil prices dropped almost overnight. I remember seeing gas in my town drop by almost $.30/gallon in a single day.

The problem was that the snowball was already rolling. The foolishness of allowing the speculators to push oil prices higher and higher had done its damage and there was no way for the lowering of fuel prices to ward off the coming collapse. It was destined to occur because of the weight of the building unemployment, the building foreclosure crisis, and the financial shenanigans carried on by some banks and financial institutions involved in the speculation that started us "rolling downhill like a snowball headed for hell", as Merle Haggard would say.

We have yet to recover from that crisis. Unfortunately, like a crazy person, some feel that if they continue to do the same things that got us into this mess, somehow it will get us out. Wasn't it Einstein who defined insanity as, "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?" Someone once told me he was a pretty smart guy.

BP was run by a bunch of ID10TS, but because of their folly, we told the speculators and the Arabs that we decided to pay them instead of drilling our own oil fields. The Arabs aren't stupid. Speculators will continue to puff up the market until the bubble bursts again. The Arabs would be stupid not to get all they can of the wealth of the Americans.

Every extra dollar spent on gas, is a dollar that cannot be spent on one's mortgage. Every extra dollar spent on gas is a dollar that cannot be spent on entertainment. Every extra dollar spent on gas is a dollar that cannot be spent on groceries. On the bright side though, every extra dollar spent on gas is a dollar our government can't send to China.

This country needs to get the fuel cost problem under control NOW, or the collapse of 2008 will look like simple child's play. We won't have to worry about bailing anyone out this time, as we've already spent trillions we don't have.

I just had to rant, because the stakes of everyone remaining passive in this matter are much too great.

This isn't democrat, this isn't republican.

It IS about using common sense. History from less than 5 years ago is repeating itself . . . are we too stupid to see it?
 

Ray S ECenFL

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Gas prices are steadily climbing. Around here unleaded regular is at $3.00 at a lot of stations. Some are higher. A few are just below at $2.97.

Lovely, just lovely.

Ray S ECenFL
 

Dave44

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That is a start, but oil is also a commodity,, one that Americans don't think we should get for ourselves. Commodities rise when the dollar is inflated beyond it's worth (metals or groceries anyone?). SO when we have decided that oil is evil so we should only buy it, but not produce it,, the countries that we get it from will help decide its worth based on what they feel our dollar is worth. Please don't make me rant about the hoax perpetrated on the American people!!!! ::)
 

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Smee

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Dave44 said:
That is a start, but oil is also a commodity,, one that Americans don't think we should get for ourselves. Commodities rise when the dollar is inflated beyond it's worth (metals or groceries anyone?). SO when we have decided that oil is evil so we should only buy it, but not produce it,, the countries that we get it from will help decide its worth based on what they feel our dollar is worth. Please don't make me rant about the hoax perpetrated on the American people!!!! ::)

I definitely understand where you're coming from. Perhaps some don't think we should get it for ourselves, but most people I know do believe we should drill . . . just kick BP's butt to the curb.

I remember studying in high school about several depressions and what led up to them. In each case, speculation . . . land speculation, etc. drove the eventual collapse of those economies. We are once again seeing the commodity markets driven by speculators as they were earlier in this decade.

Add to that the unwillingness of most politicians to work in the best interests of the American public, and we have the recipe for another economic disaster.
 

Gator-Flea

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Sooner or later the Arabs will no longer accept the Dollar for the oil, then you will need truck load of dollars to buy a loaf of bread, but you will not have any gas in the truck to go to the store to get the bread.......................then what :dontknow:
 

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Smee

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I agree, they should be of equal value to folks who won't grow their own. Unfortunately GIVING that stuff away to some of the same countries that are screwing us on the price of oil.

No oil, no food. Sounds like a sound business plan to me.

Again, unfortunately, NO ONE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE has the cajones to make the tough decisions it would take to make that work . . .
 

Goodyguy

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The high price at the pump also caused everything that was transported to increase in price as well, (which is everything) causing hyper inflation. Which was/is further exacerbated by the fact that billions of dollars every day were/are leaving our economy and going to overseas oil companies.

We have not seen the worst yet.

Jobs were lost because peoples spending money was /is going into their gas tanks, instead of being used to buy stuff. Businesses are not able to give their employees an increase in salary due to lack of sales. And there is a lack of sales due to not enough extra spending money. It's a vicious cycle and it's all tied to the price of gasoline which continues to rise. Add to that, importing more than we are exporting, illegal aliens sending money out of the country, and jobs being farmed out to third world countries, and we don't stand a chance.

It is only a matter of time before we reach critical mass, and implode. At the rate we are going it will be sooner than a lot of us are willing to believe.

It is obvious to me that there is a plan underfoot to collapse our monetary system. Because our government seems to be doing everything in it's power to see to it that it does collapse.

Perhaps the USA is too big to fail and we will get a bail out................ I don't think so.
Although the Oil companies could afford to.

Price of crude since Jan. 2009. See a trend?

financialchartimage.aspx.png
 

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Smee

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If you look at historic oil prices, adjusted for inflation . . . in other words, all done in 2009 dollars, something interesting comes to light. Take a look at the chart below --- note the relation between oil price spikes and recessions, and the relationship is very clear.

historic_oil.jpg

I did learn something really interesting in Wikilinks . . . they are calling the depression (which I believe we are still in) the "Great Recession".

It's coming, and can't be avoided unless someone in the U.S. gooberment grows a pair and decides to start drilling again.
 

Goodyguy

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The oil companies like things just the way they are .......... making record profits year after year.
As far as the government having control over whether the oil companies drill or not............... NADA

The oil companies aren't drilling the leases they have now, and why would they...... it would only mean less profits for them.
Same as if they built more refineries.

No they have us right where they want us.
We are being bent over an oil barrel with our pants down and the government can't or wont do a d@#n thing about it.

Plus the government makes way too much money off gasoline taxes to ever want us off oil based transportation.
 

Frankn

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The answer is simple. Finding politicians with enough guts to implement the proper policy is the problem. All oil consuming nations have to get together and agree to lock the price of oil in at $60 a bbl. It only cost them $5 bbl. to produce it so that price is more than fair. The leverage is food products. You can make gas from food, but you can't make food from oil! And as for us, the common people, we are going to write our Representatives and let them know how it is and how it will affect our vote. After the last election they know we are still here!

Smee, I think us old guys see things sooner. We know history repeats itself over and over until someone fixer it!
 

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