Winklevoss Twins on Bitcoin

[1320]

Bitcoin, Ripple and other cryptocurrencies are falling like a rock this week. Bitcoin has now tanked to $8,400. Hate to say I told you so, but I did tell you it was too good to be true...

uh oh, the rally is on! Should have bought you some at the dip Sir!

 

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[Madmox]

I guess if I panic sold I might break even....but it will all bounce back. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle. I guess we shall see.

 

[FreeBirdTim]

Sorry, but Bitcoin is a house of cards ready to collapse. It is being propped up by Bitfinex by buying Bitcoin with Tether. Here's what they're doing to keep the price up:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/technology/bitfinex-bitcoin-price.html

 

[1320]

Sorry, but Bitcoin is a house of cards ready to collapse. It is being propped up by Bitfinex by buying Bitcoin with Tether. Here's what they're doing to keep the price up:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/technology/bitfinex-bitcoin-price.html

For arguments sake, let's say I agree with you on the Tether/Bitcoin relationship (and I probably do in reality)....do you think that there's a similar symbiotic relationship behind the success of the plethora of the other crypto currencies? This space is so much larger that Bitcoin.

 

[FreeBirdTim]

Since they're not regulated, it would be very easy for any (or all) of the cryptocurrencies to manipulate the price of their "currency". But the poop's going to hit the fan soon and all of these "currencies" are going to be heavily regulated (or shut down).

 

[SultansOfSwing]

Bitcoin, Ripple and other cryptocurrencies are falling like a rock this week. Bitcoin has now tanked to $8,400. Hate to say I told you so, but I did tell you it was too good to be true...

This time last year bitcoin was worth $800 a coin. You think $8,000 is tanked for Feb 02 of this year?

Cryptos arent disappearing. The way they can improve technology is years ahead of their time and big business needs this tech to make more money in the future. It took over 100 years for electric cars to get popular. They were ahead of their time.

The same NYT articles you guys keep reading and believing are being pumped by those who have real interests in cryptos. They want the price to fall so they can buy back in.

 

[FreeBirdTim]

Yes, it has tanked dramatically. It went from $19.783.21 on December 17th to the current $8,400.00 or so. That's a HUGE loss for many people. Like any Ponzi scheme, the early investors made money and the poor saps who got in later are taking a beating.

 

[FreeBirdTim]

Here's a really scary stat. Bitcoin was at $16,954.78 on January 4th. Now just 30 days later, it's currently at $8,340.00 or so. That means it lost over HALF of it's value in one month. Doesn't take much imagination to see it going to zip in less than six months at that pace.

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Don't be this bitconnect guy! He lost his life savings and he's mad hehe. Sad story for so many others too.

 

[Johnnybravo300]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.co...ezes-bitconnect-assets-as-lawsuits-mount/amp/

Ponzi in the digital world....aannnnnnd it's gone.

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Actually no one was scammed. They still own the digital coins they bought.

 

[FreeBirdTim]

Yup, that's really sad. And it can happen with ANY of these so-called "currencies". It's a grim reminder to never invest more money than you can afford to lose.

The key to safe investing is diversification. Spread your money out and never toss more than 20% of your savings into anything...

 

[Johnnybravo300]

And learn the difference between an investment and a gamble. Never bet all your chips against the house!
Hard lessons learned but there's a sucker born every minute. Don't be a sucker!

 

[Dave Rishar]

Here's a really scary stat. Bitcoin was at $16,954.78 on January 4th. Now just 30 days later, it's currently at $8,340.00 or so. That means it lost over HALF of it's value in one month. Doesn't take much imagination to see it going to zip in less than six months at that pace.

Here's an even scarier stat: Bitcoin was priced at $0.08 in 2010. It would have to tank a whole lot more before it could even be reasonably compared to conventional stocks in terms of gains over time. To put that in perspective, had you invested $0.80 back in 2010, you'd be able to sell now for around $72k while it's apparently tanking. Or you could let it ride for a few more days, as it will likely be back in the teens by then.

Not that any of that matters, though - when you focus on a small enough window, any investment can be made to look bad. What will Bitcoin be worth next week? Next year? You speak as if it has never dipped and recovered before, like it has already done several times in the last month. Here we are a mere 13 hours later and it's above $9k, which actually means nothing in terms of where it will be in six months.

Attempting to predict what a crypto currency (or a stock) is going to do is impossible to do 100% accurately, but it becomes a whole lot more difficult (and much less precise) when the analysis focuses on an unreasonably small period of time. Basing a long term prediction on one month for something that's been around for over a decade may not result in an accurate result.

Yup, that's really sad. And it can happen with ANY of these so-called "currencies". It's a grim reminder to never invest more money than you can afford to lose.

Replace "currencies" with "investments" and I can agree with that statement.

And learn the difference between an investment and a gamble.

Every investment is a gamble. Some are safer than others, but there's always some degree of risk.

Never bet all your chips against the house!

Who is the house here?

Hard lessons learned but there's a sucker born every minute. Don't be a sucker!

See my comments above.

I own no BTC and have no interest in doing so, but let's play a little game and pretend that I'm interested, and I buy one BTC right now. ($9174.) I don't want to sit on this for over a year, so when I cash out, I'm looking at short term capital gains taxes, which means that Uncle Sam will want 22% of what I make, meaning that I'll have to make $11,192.28 just to break even. I'm in this for fast gains though, so I want to make at least a grand or so for the minute or so of button pushing that it will take me to buy this. As I don't like weird numbers, we'll just call this $13k. I've bought my BTC and I've placed my sell limit at $13k. How long will I have to wait to make $1800 on my $9000 investment after taxes?

I predict no more than a month, probably less than two weeks. Let's see if I'm close.

 

[FreeBirdTim]

Okay, that'll be fun to see what happens.

 

[Jason in Enid]

Dave, your math is off a little bit. You don't get taxed on the sale price, you only get taxed on the profit margin. So if you buy at $9000 and you sell at $9100, your taxes (based on your 22% posed ) would be $22 leaving you with $9078). If you want your after taxes profit to be $1000, you have to sell at about $10,300.

If you want your profit to be $1800 (after taxes) you have to sell at $11,300.

 

[Johnnybravo300]

I think its best days are behind it now. The trust is fading and the glitter and parade music is gone. Too many people losing and getting sour. The early buyers will hold out but as others go broke or sell out it will drop to it's true value.

Although crazier things have happened!!

 

[FreeBirdTim]

And I have a very firm grasp on speculators in any market. They can't make money unless stocks, commodities or currencies fluctuate. Stability is the kiss of death for short sellers and speculators. That's why we're going to have a huge correction in the stock market soon. The shorts aren't making enough money right now, so they need to trigger a "correction" in the market to get the ball rolling again.

My quote from January 21st. Stock market is down over 1,000 points today.

 

[Dave Rishar]

Dave, your math is off a little bit.

I blame fatigue, then and now. I'll stick with my original sell value though, as I'm greedy. Let's see what happens!

Although crazier things have happened!!

The crypto speculation market is crazy, and I expect crazy things from it. I've been wrong before and will be wrong again, but my spidey sense is telling me that BTC will hit the teens again, and soon. My spidey sense is not telling me that it will go away in six months.

In related news, we're down around $7k right now. I said earlier that I have no interest in BTC, but I'm beginning to reconsider that statement. Has BTC ever shrank before (in January, no less) and then rocketed? What's happened before doesn't necessarily imply that it will happen again, but I'm curious to see how this all plays out. I'm still not betting on this pony, but I'm starting to think that I should.

My quote from January 21st. Stock market is down over 1,000 points today.

Nice call, although a lot of people were saying that a correction was due. I don't really follow stocks, but that makes sense to me, sort of.

 

[highnam]

The future of Crypto has been damaged by Banks and foreign countries no longer accepting it as valid currency...
A few more join the list and Crytpo coins will be found by metal detectorists...