interesting read on gold prices

[goldenIrishman]

Found this and though some others here might be interested in it:

Falling gold price is cause for optimism - Business Insider

Considering that Gold prices are way down at this time, those of us that mine for a living want to see prices stay high.

 

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[nh.nugget]

Here's a little history lesson for you boy's and girl's the Bretton woods conference and system was done right here at the Mount Washington hotel in Bretton woods New Hampshire.

 

[goldandbill]

My experience with gold land and the price of gold showed no relationship. I sold a 60 acre placer claim on the Sixes River, here in SW Oregon. I posted it all over the net, responses were mostly trolls berating me for my deceptive add, pictures, etc. Yet, all that I posted was the real thing. I sold it do to health and time issues. I had hardly scratched the surface and recovered an ounce my first week with a 2in Keen back packer dredge. I tried to tell people the truth, but sometimes the truth is not what some want to hear. They would rather rant and draw their own conclusions. I finally sold it after over a year's effort, and gold was still way up.
goldandbill

 

[Medina Joe]

I think we will see gold around 800 to 900 a oz range

 

[Mackaydon]

Medina,
That wouldn't surprise me a bit. One only needs to recognize what is happening in the world to come to that same belief; namely:
1. A strong dollar;and getting stronger (overseas buyers will have to pay more for PMs measured in dollars).
2. China, Greece and Iran (China, a strong past supporter of gold is now stockpiling it slower. Greece seems to have avoided leaving the Euro; and Iran: the nuke agreement has lessened tension of a conflict.)
3. What inflation: Soft global economic growth hurts demand--and supply gluts deepen--all creating an anti-inflationary environment--that sucks the air out of the gold market.
And if the Fed raises rates later this year, that will only strengthen the dollar, putting more pressure on gold.
So......I agree with you (gold under $1,000); and I also wait for silver to hit $12--then decline further before rebounding.
Don.....

 

[Clay Diggins]

"Buy when blood runs thru the streets, sell when everyone is partying."

Gold is down 40% from it's high.

I don't see any partying.
40% is a lot of blood.

Heavy Pans

 

[Kuntzy]

prices will always go back up.

When I bought my 2 claims in South Dakota gold prices were less than $300 an ounce. Look on the bright side its still much higher than that. And even at them prices my black hills claims made money, but then again we were pulling 2 ounces a week so that helped. If nothing else just keep saving your gold till prices go back up. The prices will always go back up.

 

[Mad Machinist]

Found this and though some others here might be interested in it:

Falling gold price is cause for optimism - Business Insider

Considering that Gold prices are way down at this time, those of us that mine for a living want to see prices stay high.

I really don't think it is because we are coming out of a "Depression". I think it has more to do with eliminating competition. With gold and other commodity prices high, it made sense for everybody and their brother to start a "junior" mining company and go after the small, high cost deposits.

Now with all the little guys running around filling supply gaps, it made it rather difficult for the "Big Boys" to control the market and prices through "maintenance shut downs" and "labor disputes".

Very, very few of the "juniors" have the capital to weather any sort of downturn and thus will be put out of business eliminating competition and returning control of the markets to the "Big Boys". And on a plus side for the "Big Boys", they will be able to pick up a lot of these properties for a fraction of their real value thus further restricting supply.

I'm betting by the end of the year, the markets will start "recovering" so to speak.

 

[goldenIrishman]

I hear ya Mad. That is one reason I've been building up my capitol in equipment very slowly. I refuse to go into debt to finance my endeavors at any time. By using the slow growth method I never have to worry about investors and I know that all the equipment is mine free and clear. Once this heat breaks and I can get back out in the field digging, my actual overhead will be very low. Fuel for the truck and grub for me is about it. I'm very low maintenance and don't mind roughing it.

I figure that once I find a couple of areas worth claiming, I'll dig and dig then hold onto the gold until prices get back up. By the time the heat breaks, the girlfriends new house will be all set up and won't require nearly as much of my attention. I will be shortening my stays out in the field down to two weeks digging at a time and bringing the cons home for final processing. I'll be able to travel much lighter too so setting up the tent won't be required. Everything is being reworked to make the operation as streamlined as possible. Less overhead equals more profit.

 

[Clay Diggins]

I really don't think it is because we are coming out of a "Depression". I think it has more to do with eliminating competition. With gold and other commodity prices high, it made sense for everybody and their brother to start a "junior" mining company and go after the small, high cost deposits.

Now with all the little guys running around filling supply gaps, it made it rather difficult for the "Big Boys" to control the market and prices through "maintenance shut downs" and "labor disputes".

Very, very few of the "juniors" have the capital to weather any sort of downturn and thus will be put out of business eliminating competition and returning control of the markets to the "Big Boys". And on a plus side for the "Big Boys", they will be able to pick up a lot of these properties for a fraction of their real value thus further restricting supply.

I'm betting by the end of the year, the markets will start "recovering" so to speak.

Thanks for your perspective MadMachinist. I have an entirely different view of the markets.

If you could name just one Major that isn't underwater on their gold hedges I'd give some thought to your theory. China is the worlds biggest gold miner and they don't sell any of their production. China has been producing about 450 tons a year and buying another 1,400 tons from foreign sources. That leaves about 600 tons of annual production for the rest of the world. There are plenty of willing buyers at these prices.

It certainly isn't a supply/demand market price. You would know that if you ever made a call for delivery. Paper gold and metallic gold are two different markets now. Just try to get delivery on a COMEX contract of certified good delivery bars at paper prices and listen to the laughter from the repository. It ain't gonna happen.

You are right though that the Juniors with low proven reserves are dying like flies, it happens with every market drop, as always. As long as investors are greedy and looking for 10 baggers that will remain a problem. Investors have the attention span of fleas these days. I don't know how that would help the majors though, they aren't buying juniors and they aren't doing exploration work anymore.

I work with several Juniors that are well funded but new funding is a long way off. We also work with a few Capital groups that are eager to provide bridge funding in the 5 mil range to Juniors with established projects. No proven reserves = no funding. They could buy paper gold if they wanted to gamble. More than 5 mil bridge funding is rarer than hen's teeth these days. Nobody is going to pony up for a new mine with this rigged paper market.

I have no doubt that the commodity and equity markets are manipulated. If you look beyond the mining business it seems obvious that it's a much bigger game than current supply from mining. I'm betting when the market breaks to the upside you won't be able to buy physical gold. I'll also bet you won't be able to get cash funding for less than 26%. That's a different game from mining altogether.

Heavy Pans

 

[Duckshot]

Read your GLD (paper gold) contracts. They don't even garuntee the purity if you take delivery. It is the oldest scam in banking and it all started when someone printed a paper receipt for gold they did not have.

Gotta lower the price so the big boys can cover their receipts, and the easiest way to lower the price is to sell more receipts. They are stuck on paper gold like a junkie on meth.

 

[Clay Diggins]

Read your GLD (paper gold) contracts. They don't even garuntee the purity if you take delivery. It is the oldest scam in banking and it all started when someone printed a paper receipt for gold they did not have.

Gotta lower the price so the big boys can cover their receipts, and the easiest way to lower the price is to sell more receipts. They are stuck on paper gold like a junkie on meth.

You are right Duckshot except GLD isn't even paper gold. You can't take delivery on the gold itself, it's divided into "baskets" of dedicated gold that may or may not actually exist. That's in the prospectus also. There is no physical repository it's just a theoretical "pool" account that can't be fully audited. GLD is strictly an index fund based on the price of paper contracts on the COMEX futures market - not gold itself.

I began buying COMEX gold futures contracts in 1974, way back when you either rolled over the contract or took delivery at maturity - no cash outs were even available through the market then. I took delivery when it paid and I rolled the contract when it didn't. It was always just a hedge against gold price fluctuations that affected my business. Back then if you wanted to "gamble" you bet on a stock to produce good dividends for a long time. You didn't buy commodities hoping for a killing. It was a buy and hold market based on actual production. That market no longer exists since 1979. Five short years of real commodity gold trading. It's sad that so few today ever experienced a real market.

When it comes to commodities it's now truly a situation where if it's not actually in your physical possession you don't own it. Having a contract promising future delivery or an index fund tracking trading in a commodity is suicide in a rigged market. If you believe the markets can deliver physical when the contract is called you are working on belief only. It just ain't gonna happen - hasn't happened in several years.

It's encouraging that so many here understand that these markets are rigged. I'm not sure it really matters in the long run just how they are rigged. Suffice it to say that gold in hand is worth several hundred times the value of paper market gold when the rigging ends.

It's a good thing that gold miners can produce gold without markets. It might be an incredibly useful skill in the near future. That "recreational" gram a day could be the most useful skill you ever learned.

Heavy Pans

 

[goldenIrishman]

The paper gold thing has screwed up a lot of people as far as I can tell. I for one would never buy paper gold. To many ways for shady characters to rip you off in my humble opinion. If I can't hold it in my hand.... well I'm sure you know what I mean.

 

[Medina Joe]

"Buy when blood runs thru the streets, sell when everyone is partying."

Gold is down 40% from it's high.

I don't see any partying.
40% is a lot of blood.

Heavy Pans

Your average buyer will be bleeding bad. most were buying at the high. all the gold promoter to me are snake oil sales men. will it go lower then 1000 I kind of hope so. That way when they are selling it at 800 oz i will be buying. all metals will be taking a hit for a while. right now its cheaper to buy a ton of steel then a ton of cabbage.

 

[GoldpannerDave]

How to Know When Gold's Bearish Slide Is OverAnother interesting article on gold prices.

 

[Adventure_Time]

Gold goes through cycles and it is closely tied with fear in my opinion. Lucky for us the 2016 primary is coming up, people will surely call for the end of the world on this one.

 

[GoldpannerDave]

And another very interesting read on the bottom of gold--as predicted by when central banks sell into the decline.

Gold Hits a 5-Year Low: How to Time the Next MAJOR Bottom | Elliott Wave International

 

[Duckshot]

"40% is a lot of blood"- Clay Diggins

Speaking of blood, it is coming. When all these internationally traded phony financial instruments breakdown there will likely be another Great War. All wars are fought over power, and money is percieved as power. Historically money has always been a popular reason to justify killing people, either to take their stuff or to cover up fraud.

Gold and silver prices will rise as soon as that Great War starts, but you might not be able to trade it then and governments will want to commandeer gold and silver. Precious metals are nesescary to manufacture electronics and every army uses electronics these days. Silver is best conductor of electricity. Gold is second best but it can be plated so thinly that using gold instead of silver in electronics is economical.

Your internet machine has gold and silver in it.

 

[GoldpannerDave]

And yet another interesting article on gold. Hope these are useful to you guys.

Gold's at a Five-Year Low: Here's What to Do | Total Wealth Research

 

[mytimetoshine]

Yea looks like PM'S are headed down.. but its all a cycle. It won't be long before the stock market drops in half again. And the metals will rise, probably much higher then before. It's all about buying low and selling high. Soooo much easier said then done though. I bought a little metal couple years ago. It's down big time but im not selling unless i HAVE to.I'm going down with the ship! Lol
As for prospect gold. I've never sold any and I do just for fun so the gold price doesn't really matter much to me. I figure the lower it goes the less competition is there.

Shoot maybe it it goes low enough they will let us dredge again... ha, seems to me dredging became an environmental concern when gold started to skyrocket.