Is this cynical or realistic?

[Immy]

When PMs were soaring last year I poured over articles at Kitco. I couldn't get enough data, which pretty much said the same thing over and over - the sky's the limit! Very few predicted the correction we're currently in, or at least the depths of it (roughly 50%) nor how long it would last (almost a year now). Though prices are slowly inching upward we're still about 40% off the highs of last year's bull run.

Then I started thinking about the people who back then were predicting $30-$40/oz. silver and $2,000/oz gold and realized, these people are in the PM buying and selling business. It's in their interest to say things are going up, up, up with no ceiling in sight.

There's a lot of anger with oil speculators who many believe caused per-barrel prices to soar to almost $150 last year. I understand PMs aren't as necessary a daily commodity as oil, but why hasn't some ire been thrown at the PM cheerleaders who were at least partly responsible for the record prices of last year?

I'll wrap this up with something I'd like to know: Who IYO are the best PM gurus who don't have a vested interest in a company that deals in PMs?

 

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[Emperor Findus Cladius]

That is, as they say, the $64 question. I have looked at many of the same articles, and everyone was bullish on silver, but never gave enough detailed facts as to why. Many on this forum has said the same thing, but all of those comments are just desires, with no facts to back up the reasoning. It would be nice to find someone who can give a totally unbiased informed opinion.

 

[jim4silver]

Anyone who has spent enough time reading articles written by the so-called "experts" and doing their own due diligence should be able to form their own opinions and make good decisions. Many of these experts are guessing just like we are. But I have had luck so far with my guesses, so I feel confident in what I am doing now, which is holding gold, silver and cash. No stocks or 401Ks, etc.

Nobody really knows where gold and silver, or the stock market for that matter are headed. The best guide is your own gut feeling after doing hours of research and studying history, since it does seem to repeat.

I think a good pundit who does not sell anything that I know of is Jim Sinclair. He has a free website that is updated a few times a day. Check out http://www.jsmineset.com/. He is a little over the top, but has a great reputation from his past as a futures trader back in the day. I consider him one of the best experts.

Unfortunately, there is no guru that is out there who you can bank on 100%. Some will turn out to be correct, some not.

I like to look at the things that are undisputed facts, and draw from there. Such as all the money being loaned and created for the various "stimulus" plans. The fact that gold and silver have been in a bull market since 2002 or so, and past bull markets have always lasted at least 10 years. Also, all fiat currencies ever created have one day failed. Gold and silver have been valuable for centuries, if not longer.

It is true that there have been time periods when holding gold and silver would have resulted in a loss over the years. But that has not been the case for the last 6 years. I believe we have at least 2-3 more years (and probably more) of the bull market, and that the highest percentage of gains are yet to come as the general public and Joe Six Packs pick up interest in the metals and scramble to buy them.

Gold has hit record highs when priced in the Euro and Pound recently. People in other countries are buying too, so it is not just here. Many countries are ahead of us in terms of getting the gold and silver bug.

Although my rational mind tells me silver will be a better percentage gainer due to all the industrial uses, Joe Six Pack's ability to pay for metals, and the past ratio between gold and silver which is now out of whack, my gut is telling me gold is eventually going to be a higher gainer IF and/or WHEN a new currency is one day created that is backed by gold. I feel this is gonna happen if fiat globally becomes worthless and the public demands something backed by gold. I cannot give facts to support this, it is just my guess as to what could happen. The next currency that is backed by gold (or silver) will become the strongest currency we've had in a century and will be the new global standard.

I still hold about 50% of my metals in silver, but if I add anything new on the dips now it will be gold. I am tired of getting new bank safe deposit boxes to keep the damn heavy silver. When I go to the bank I have the teller let me remove the box because I don't want them to know what is in there.

Jim