jim4silver
Silver Member
- Apr 15, 2008
- 3,662
- 495
I have to admit that at times over the past couple months I actually believed this could be possible if silver broke below the mega strong support at $26. It hasn't yet but perhaps it could.
However, one thing to keep in mind with respect to the PAPER silver market is that a long can still demand delivery if they pony up the required funds and jump thru the proper hoops. If such were to happen on a large enough level there could be a failure to deliver on the Comex if they could not come up with enough silver to satisfy each contract (a contract is 5000 ounces of silver). Such a default would bring instant notice to the financial world and I think would cause silver's price to rise dramatically, even if for a short time.
Thus, it is my opinion that the powers that be who manipulate silver (whomever they are) will not allow it to get too low otherwise they would run into a big problem. To let the price get to $20 would cause so much physical demand at the institutional level that they would not be able to deliver. So I think they will at some point in the next few weeks or months, let it rise back up to $50 in a quick run to let off some steam so to speak that is building among PM bulls. Then if they can, they will push it back like they did in 2011 when it gets to the level they want. I don't know much about the commodity markets with respect to being a trader, but the COT reports do show the Commercials adding longs and removing shorts over the past 4 weeks or so. The Commercials are said to be the smart money in the Comex world. I think they know what is coming and are getting positioned for it while still removing shorts at these lower levels where we are now.
Add to the above the background music of wars and possibilities of new wars breaking out, bad financial conditions world wide and the possibility of further bank bail ins or such. These facts will help push money into hard assets, whether PMs or otherwise at some point in the future. When it happens it will happen quickly and you will see PMs rise like bitcoin did recently.
Here is an interesting article that shows recent large withdrawals from the Comex vaults.
COMEX Silver Inventories Fall Off Cliff As Registered Silver Declines by 10% in 48 Hours! | SilverDoctors.com
All my opinion.
Jim
However, one thing to keep in mind with respect to the PAPER silver market is that a long can still demand delivery if they pony up the required funds and jump thru the proper hoops. If such were to happen on a large enough level there could be a failure to deliver on the Comex if they could not come up with enough silver to satisfy each contract (a contract is 5000 ounces of silver). Such a default would bring instant notice to the financial world and I think would cause silver's price to rise dramatically, even if for a short time.
Thus, it is my opinion that the powers that be who manipulate silver (whomever they are) will not allow it to get too low otherwise they would run into a big problem. To let the price get to $20 would cause so much physical demand at the institutional level that they would not be able to deliver. So I think they will at some point in the next few weeks or months, let it rise back up to $50 in a quick run to let off some steam so to speak that is building among PM bulls. Then if they can, they will push it back like they did in 2011 when it gets to the level they want. I don't know much about the commodity markets with respect to being a trader, but the COT reports do show the Commercials adding longs and removing shorts over the past 4 weeks or so. The Commercials are said to be the smart money in the Comex world. I think they know what is coming and are getting positioned for it while still removing shorts at these lower levels where we are now.
Add to the above the background music of wars and possibilities of new wars breaking out, bad financial conditions world wide and the possibility of further bank bail ins or such. These facts will help push money into hard assets, whether PMs or otherwise at some point in the future. When it happens it will happen quickly and you will see PMs rise like bitcoin did recently.
Here is an interesting article that shows recent large withdrawals from the Comex vaults.
COMEX Silver Inventories Fall Off Cliff As Registered Silver Declines by 10% in 48 Hours! | SilverDoctors.com
All my opinion.
Jim
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