Present Move In Silver Almost Identical To Feb 2014?

[Quick$ilver]

Anyone else notice the moves lately in silver look almost identical to those in Feb 2014? The point we are at right now is just before the smack down in Feb... I know not to base future performance on the past but it's weird. Also can someone tell us what level silver needs to hit to break the multi year down trend? We must be close to breaking it.

 

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[jim4silver]

Anyone else notice the moves lately in silver look almost identical to those in Feb 2014? The point we are at right now is just before the smack down in Feb... I know not to base future performance on the past but it's weird. Also can someone tell us what level silver needs to hit to break the multi year down trend? We must be close to breaking it.

Lots of deja vu in this market that's for sure. The down trend line from the peak in 2011 was broken in this past run. We are safely above the line now. However, I would not be surprised to see another push downward at some point in the near term. I don't think it will break below 18 but you never know.

The article below has a nice silver chart of what I am saying. The article is a week or so old, but you can see at 21 we are clearly above and through the downtrend line from the 2011 top. This tells me the direction will be up next for the mid term at least, but we could stay here or get a bump lower before that happens.

No matter what the anti-chart folks say, the long term "signals" like this are worth considering.


Gold And Silver Have Broken Out! Is It Official? | Gold Silver Worlds

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[Quick$ilver]

Now we are in the sideways phase of the cycle. Waiting for an event to spook the market for the smack down... I don't get it, after a margin requirement decrease prices are supposed to be stable. I guess the margin decrease allows more speculative shorts to enter? Will we see mid $18 in the next few weeks?

 

[jim4silver]

We've got all hell breaking loose in the mid east, Ukraine, etc, and silver can't even breach $22. If I wasn't such a PM bull I would be laughing at claims silver will make it to $30 let alone $50 again. Too late for me to become a PM bear so I guess I will have to just watch and wait.

I think my PM bug 12 step plan is working though. One of my local coin dealers called with a deal on modern proof silver for wholesale price and I turned it down (kind of low on funds but didn't want it anyway).

At least I will have some cool shiny poker chips to play with in the future. LOL!

Jim

 

[Quick$ilver]

Well, it looks like I was correct. I think we will test $18.50 very soon now... thanks to the dollar rally in response to European interest rate cut and their version of QE.

 

[Quick$ilver]

It would seem that a move to $17 is in order and probably under for that matter. If you have the cash on the sidelines a great buying opportunity is developing. If there is a good bottom in place before the October 1st new rules for buying on margin, the momentum will swing to the up side when shorts get their margin calls and only have 1 day to cover. I never thought we would see these prices again. In any event I don't see silver going below $16.

 

[jim4silver]

I believe the big players could in theory drive the paper price of silver as low as they want. But in the physical market they have to be able to deliver the metals at those low prices on Comex and such, and at some point the paper price will be too low for physical to be had, without adding to it some "premium" amount that must be paid by the party responsible for delivery.

The $18 level so far has held. If they push the paper price below $18 I believe the paper price will drop fast to some much lower number. I don't think that level would last long and the price would probably spike back to here or higher. Whether a person could score physical at that very low level is doubtful. If the price stays low long enough supply will come back into the market but even at 16 it seems difficult to imagine. My coin stores here are loaded with inventory now but if silver fell to 16 in a hurry, the supply would be gone in a day or two. It took weeks to get supply in on some items when we had that big fall from the higher 20s to lower 20s last year. People were lining up and paying and waiting for several weeks to get ASEs and such.

It's hard for me to understand how a physical item (silver) can be purchased by us consumers for about what it costs to dig up and refine said raw metal into .9999 coins/bars, Plus think of all the middlemen who take their cut and make a profit along the way- refiner to the wholesaler then to the retailer. I don't know how the $1.00 premium on generic creates a profit for all of those in the chain, including the mining company.

What makes it even more unbelievable to me that silver is this cheap now is that silver is an item that cannot be created or manufactured our of thin air but has to be found and extracted then refined, etc, it has many industrial uses and even more every day in the areas of electronics, medical, solar, defense applications, and now even in clothing, etc. What other assets can you think of where the price is like that? Even if the "money" aspect of silver is ignored the need for silver in modern machines is only going to expand in the future, while the supply gets depleted year after year.

I hope I am not in the future like one of the poor souls from the early 80's who got stuck with gold and silver they paid much for as the price went to peanuts, and had to hold the metals for 20+ years to break even. I don't think that is going to happen to current PM bugs like myself, but it's possible I suppose.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[DeepseekerADS]

I was one of them guys in the 80s who got stuck with high dollar silver. I was young then, and it was never going to stop.

All came to naught though, didn't matter - X got it in the divorce and sold it before that big spike so she and her new feller could buy all kinds of toys, subsequently leading to bankruptcy and divorce...

Such is life