Commodity price manipulation

[jim4silver]

Mini prediction for the end of the week: Crude closer to $40 than $50. US crude oil inventory numbers,due out tomorrow, will be a factor in further decline in price decreases, as will Saudi's continuation of cutting the price for European buyers and for U.S. refiners.
Don......

They will take it as low as they have to till Putin cries "uncle". Here is my mini prediction: as soon as Russia agrees to play nice via Urkraine, etc, you will see the price of oil shoot back up and eventually go to roughly 50% point between where it bottoms and last high before it started dropping, then will go back higher further as time goes on.

If my prediction is right it will show supply/demand has little or nothing to do with this major drop, as I suspect. The chart of oil looked great before June/July then whammo.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

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[TheCoinKid]

Weakening Russian economy is collateral damage

I glanced at Jim's early-morning comment just before walking out the door this morning, and thought to myself "No, Russia is just collateral damage". Great minds think alike (HA!).

I also believe the current oil price is a function on simple supply and demand. The "Fix" is that our middle-Eastern friends are heavily influencing the supply side.

Where are prices headed this week? Well, Don, your prediction looks pretty good right now.

TCK

 

[Mackaydon]

Unless a significant player 'blinks' and reduces production, 40 is just a way-point in route to 30.
It's all about the abundance of supply right now.
Don....

 

[UncleMatt]

You know, OPEC didn't increase production, they just refused to CUT production. They needed the money, so they made the decision any of us would make. The reaction from oil prices was due to the fact that oil prices had been maintained by market manipulation at artificially high levels. Once OPEC didn't want to play that game any more, we saw the price descend to where DEMAND would support it. We have had very high oil supplies, and very low oil demand, for many years now. Good thing the price is now being dictated by real market forces, and not the arbitrary profit whims of oil company executives.

 

[Mackaydon]

First prediction validated:
Latin American Herald Tribune - OPEC Crude Drops to $44.85 a Barrel, Lowest Since March 2009

I can almost hear the doors being shuttered on exploration and drilling ops.
I do have sympathy for all those investors and companies who jumped on the fracking bandwagon and now find themselves under water.
Don...

 

[pronghorn]

First prediction validated:
Latin American Herald Tribune - OPEC Crude Drops to $44.85 a Barrel, Lowest Since March 2009

I can almost hear the doors being shuttered on exploration and drilling ops.
I do have sympathy for all those investors and companies who jumped on the fracking bandwagon and now find themselves under water.
Don...

Fracking is here to stay, you just have to be big enough to ride out the occasional rogue wave.

If you find yourself underwater in the bakken, you were waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay late
jumping on that wagon and shouldn't be crossing unknown waters! The little guy, the grunts, the workers on the rigs like I did 30 years ago are the ones being thrown overboard, Harold Hamm and the big players simply adjust their tax returns and move on.

 

[jim4silver]

Wanted to bump this thread. Funny how oil has stabilized and even gone up a bit, even though they keep saying they are running out of space to store it and such. My theory was and still is that the fall in oil was, in large part (not completely), due to NATO/US jamming up Russia with sanctions and oil shenanigans to punish them for what was going on in Urkaine. Since the relative "peace" in the Ukraine over the recent past couple of months the oil prices magically stopped cratering and went up a bit, even though some well known gurus still call for $30 per barrel.

If we do see oil start falling again, it will coincide with more Ukraine/Russia tensions I predict. We'll have to wait and see. But those saying it is simply supply and demand have been wrong over the past couple months, otherwise we would have seen continued dropping prices.

Just my opinion.


Jim

 

[Treasure_Hunter]

Fracking is what is controlling oil prices right now short of another crisis in Muddle East. We are producing more oil..

 

[jim4silver]

Although not a commodity, the below link shows just how easy it is for TPTB to "manipulate" things that many would claim are not or cannot be manipulated. It talks about the debt limit being the same number for 40 days in a row (not going up in that amount of time). The number it is "frozen" at is $25 million below the current legal debt limit.

But I am sure some who read this will say "that doesn't mean anything, everything is legit and OK, oh, by the way did you see the Bruce Jenner interview last night, etc, etc"......

40 Days: Treasury Says Debt Has Been Frozen at $18,112,975,000,000 | CNS News

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[Marchas45]

Although not a commodity, the below link shows just how easy it is for TPTB to "manipulate" things that many would claim are not or cannot be manipulated. It talks about the debt limit being the same number for 40 days in a row (not going up in that amount of time). The number it is "frozen" at is $25 million below the current legal debt limit.

But I am sure some who read this will say "that doesn't mean anything, everything is legit and OK, oh, by the way did you see the Bruce Jenner interview last night, etc, etc"......

40 Days: Treasury Says Debt Has Been Frozen at $18,112,975,000,000 | CNS News

Just my opinion.

Jim

Nothing wrong there Jim. They just started a new Table III-D Lol move along and Keep Stacking

 

[jim4silver]

I guess all that extra oil supply that they supposedly are running out of storage for is causing the price to eclipse $60 now? In fairness, we might see a drop after Memorial Day but that remains to be seen.

Again I say, any serious drop in price will happen contemporaneously with increased Ukrainian/Russian fighting, which has been mostly absent for a while.


Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[jim4silver]

If the below article is accurate, it might mean the Ukraine is getting ready to heat up again. If that is true, I expect to see oil prices drop. If fighting breaks out like it was months ago, I would not be surprised to see oil break below the recent low of $50 or so. We will have to wait and see.

Report: Russia Massing Troops, Heavy Weapons At Ukrainian Border

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[jim4silver]

Nice article further illustrating just how "manipulated" silver is. It is manipulated because the paper markets allow such behavior, so I can't blame the actual players for taking advantage of the ability to basically naked short sell the silver market to the tune of 15% of a year's worth of supply in one week. This is obviously not producers hedging to protect themselves from sudden market shifts and such. As long as there is enough physical available to deliver on these contracts, this will go on forever and ever. If they never run out of the physical metal to deliver, then silver deserves a price of $5 or $12 or whatever, since it can't be in too much demand if there is always enough physical to deliver at these "low" prices when the longs demand delivery.

Silver Market Turning Bullish As Staggering 15 Percent Of Entire Annual Production Of Silver Shorted By Speculators In One Week! | King World News

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[bradley1719]

Nice article further illustrating just how "manipulated" silver is. It is manipulated because the paper markets allow such behavior, so I can't blame the actual players for taking advantage of the ability to basically naked short sell the silver market to the tune of 15% of a year's worth of supply in one week. This is obviously not producers hedging to protect themselves from sudden market shifts and such. As long as there is enough physical available to deliver on these contracts, this will go on forever and ever. If they never run out of the physical metal to deliver, then silver deserves a price of $5 or $12 or whatever, since it can't be in too much demand if there is always enough physical to deliver at these "low" prices when the longs demand delivery.

Silver Market Turning Bullish As Staggering 15 Percent Of Entire Annual Production Of Silver Shorted By Speculators In One Week! | King World News

Just my opinion.

Jim

I don't ever remember seeing anyone complain about it when it happens in the opposite direction......

 

[jim4silver]

Does anyone know anything about CA gas suppliers selling 27,000,000 gallons of its special blend gas to an outside source to cause a shortageWhich in turn caused Californians to pay higher prices for gas at the pump...

Ed T

All I could find.

Record exports led to higher California gas prices, activists say - San Francisco Chronicle

 

[jim4silver]

I don't ever remember seeing anyone complain about it when it happens in the opposite direction......

While nobody would complain, it would still be manipulation if the driving force was the paper market setting the price and not the physical market.

Jim

 

[Mackaydon]

It seems that should a small fire erupt in a Torrance refinery's bathroom the price of gasoline might move up a dime for a month or more; but, of course, that is not manipulation.....

 

[Marchas45]

It seems that should a small fire erupt in a Torrance refinery's bathroom the price of gasoline might move up a dime for a month or more; but, of course, that is not manipulation.....

Torrance was my stomping grounds when I lived in Ca. and was one of the people that started AYSO along with Mario Machado. Damn that was a long time ago. Keep Stacking

 

[diggummup]

As far as the price of gasoline goes, all I know is it has been steadily rising for the last 6 months from a low of just above $2 a gallon in Jan. to $2.79 now, that's a pretty large increase in just 6 months.

 

[bradley1719]

While nobody would complain, it would still be manipulation if the driving force was the paper market setting the price and not the physical market.

Jim

Well..... I agree that it would still be manipulation. And I know that you believe that there can be manipulation both ways which is unusual for a silver bull. But there are many silver bulls who would NOT call it manipulation if it happens in the upward direction. They would call it regular price action that is expected. Because after all.... we all know that silver should be way over $100 right now and the only reason it isn't is because of "manipulation".