Silver in 2015 - A False start or right on track?

[SilverHoarder07]

Hey peeps and peepettes,

was just checking in on the daily spot price and see that we have had a pretty dramatic increase in the past few days from somewhere about $15.70 ozt to the current $16.60 (at time of writing) according to Silver Price .

Now I am not certain of the exact figure for just today but based on the numbers I have seen recently we just had a very short term 5.73% increase in value which is both awesome and saddening at the same time (I only bought a little bit at the $15.70 range over the last weekend)

I am going to include a picture - also from silverprice.org - which shows the yearly %+/- for the past few years. If you are in this forum you know we got slammed hard in 2013 and pretty good in 2014 as well. My question for everyone here is do you think we are going to see our 3rd straight negative year or is 2015 the year where we come out ahead? If you think the latter (like me) you may want to buy what you can now because the numbers are heading on up.

 

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[jim4silver]

I have no idea anymore. I still believe we will eventually rally big time someday when people lose confidence in paper assets for some unforeseen (by most) reason(s). That might not be for a while. But if and when that day comes the manipulators won't matter so much.

However, if those with the power decide to run the price up (like they did back in 2010 to 2011) instead of down, I believe we could re-test $50 again. Will it be this year? - I hope because I am not buying anymore silver except for stuff with semi numismatic potential and not bulk bullion, etc so I don't dream about sub $14 prices and such. I am having much better luck playing in the paper markets (like TVIX, etc). My silver stash is my 401K so to speak and plan to hold it for the next 15 years or more so I am not worried. But I am definitely not "stacking" like I used to.


Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[SilverHoarder07]

I have no idea anymore. I still believe we will eventually rally big time someday when people lose confidence in paper assets for some unforeseen (by most) reason(s). That might not be for a while. But if and when that day comes the manipulators won't matter so much.

However, if those with the power decide to run the price up (like they did back in 2010 to 2011) instead of down, I believe we could re-test $50 again. Will it be this year? - I hope because I am not buying anymore silver except for stuff with semi numismatic potential and not bulk bullion, etc so I don't dream about sub $14 prices and such. I am having much better luck playing in the paper markets (like TVIX, etc). My silver stash is my 401K so to speak and plan to hold it for the next 15 years or more so I am not worried. But I am definitely not "stacking" like I used to.


Just my opinion.

Jim

With the past decade playing out as it has would you consider a sell off in the $35-45 range with hopes of reinvestment once again at a lower price point?

 

[jim4silver]

With the past decade playing out as it has would you consider a sell off in the $35-45 range with hopes of reinvestment once again at a lower price point?

SH,

If I was playing the PM's as an investment like a stock then yes that would be a great play. I tend to look at my PM's though as more "insurance" and probably won't sell at those prices unless I needed the cash. I should have diversified more early on but I am addicted to PM's for some crazy reason.

Some of the posters here will say I am preaching fear porn or conspiracies but I really do think at some point in the next 1 to 5 years we will see calamities in all things paper due to most likely a derivatives failure(s), etc, that will cause those with money to seek real assets whether that be fine art (already happening where fine art is going through the roof in prices), land, PM's, etc.

Short of the above happening, I do believe in cycles and that PM's will find favor again as mere "investments" by hedge funds, etc, and that would probably be when the big boys decide to go long again. I honestly don't believe now that the run up to $50 in 2011 was due to supply/demand per se, but was from paper markets and speculation probably by the same "folks" that have been shorting the stuff for the past few years.

One thing I have learned is it is never bad to take profits. I have been looking for 15-20% on my paper trades and have lost out on some profits because I sold too soon but that is OK, it's better than a loss.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[bradley1719]

I do not buy into the concept of massive manipulation. Yes, manipulation occurs. But it is on a very small scale. There is always someone out there trying to manipulate prices both ways. These "groups" or individuals counter balance each other such that the net effect is virtually negligible. There can be waves of action where one group ends up being able to push the price one way or another by a few minor percentage points (usually with the help of general investor sentiment). But this is a far cry from the hundreds of dollars per ounce that some people (no one on this forum) would have you believe is going on. If I told you that I could prove that a group was able to manipulate the price of silver one day by 10 cents, you'd shrug your shoulders and say "so what?". But that would be proof of manipulation none the less. The question isn't whether or not manipulate occurs. The question is "how much and in what direction?". If the answer is "10 cents up" then who really cares?

As for our recent surge, it comes and goes. We oscillate up and down like waves in the ocean. But the general price trend has been down for two years. I don't see that changing at all. Where the "bottom" will be no one knows. But I don't think we are quite there yet. When it happens I think you will have all the time you need to buy. At that point the general public and most investors will be completely fed up with PM's and the price will stagnate for a long while. So I don't think that there is much value in looking at the chart from day to day looking to jump in at just the right time. The price won't stay at that low point for one day or one week. It will stay there for almost a year. I look at the price chart about once a week now. And frankly, what I see is us oscillating around the $16 mark. In less than six months I expect us to be oscillating around the $15.75 mark or lower.

I think we are sitting in a similar position to where we were sitting after 1980: A long slow decline to the point where virtually no one is talking about PM's anymore and you can buy all you want with virtually no premiums.

And I could be very, very wrong. But I've seen no evidence that suggests that silver really SHOULD be any more than $16 at this point. I've seen plenty of speculation. But no real evidence. And it's possible that silver COULD be reasonably priced at $14 as well... People have been talking about the collapse of the dollar since Nixon took us off of the gold standard in 1973. That doesn't mean that it can't happen or that there aren't things going on that could lead to the dollar crashing. But there have always been things going on. The dollar may not crash in our lifetimes (or our children's lifetimes). Or it could crash tomorrow. So I don't personally intend to let that fear impact my investments at this particular time. Again.... I could be very, very wrong about that.

All just my opinion.

 

[coinbug]

Some of the posters here will say I am preaching fear porn or conspiracies but I really do think at some point in the next 1 to 5 years we will see calamities in all things paper due to most likely a derivatives failure(s), etc, that will cause those with money to seek real assets whether that be fine art (already happening where fine art is going through the roof in prices), land, PM's, etc.


Jim

The derivatives market is bigger - much bigger - now than it was back in 2008 when credit default swaps caused the subprime crisis.

The fall in oil prices could be the event that brings down the financial house of cards this time, and 2015 could be an interesting year.

Watch out for any investment with third-party risk. Groucho Marx bought small annuities after he was wiped out in the stock market crash because he never wanted to be poor again. That wouldn't work these days because there is no way of determining the derivative exposure of the insurance companies selling them.