I Bought My First Bullion Ever!! A 1 Kilo Silver Bar

[bradley1719]

All I will say is if the price of silver went up in 2011 to near $50 (which it did), that price move was from either supply/demand, or manipulation, or maybe a combination of both. For the record I believe the run up in price then WAS manipulation, which I define as a party or parties with unlimited or very large sums moving a market in the direction they want due to said large sums of ownership irrespective of the "demand" or "supply" factor being considered. Some signs of such manipulation to drive price down are big trades where tons of metals are dumped at the same time (and not staggered out to help get the most $$$ from the sale) usually in thin market hours like overnight, etc, that seem to have a huge effect on the price and set the tone for the next trading day(s).

If people buy an item due to fear that is DEMAND. Demand does not mean supply is lacking per se. Take Apple products. Demand is generally huge despite the fact that there is plenty to go around. Perhaps you believe that supply/demand means only there is a totally correlated relationship between the two.

Although I am too busy/lazy to do the research, back in the day when you posted as TreasurePirate you used to say to those who claimed the price of silver falling was due to manipulation, "what about when the price goes up, isn't that manipulation too", or something to that effect.

I am glad though that you disagree with my views, because if we agreed on this I would have to have be immediately taken to a Marchas sponsored intervention session to get my mind right again.

Just my opinion.

Jim

The world is not black and white. To try and model the world with Econ 101 simplifications like "supply and demand" is going to leave you scratching your head in many situations. The run up in 2011 was likely caused by many factors. I specifically like to stay very "gray" when I analyze the world because the world truly is gray.

I did not talk about supply/demand or manipulation in my first post. I only talked about fear. That's why I resented you once again trying to put words into my mouth. We'd been down that road before and the end result was not pretty. So for the sake of the current thread and forum harmony, I have no intention of going down that road again.

Peace.

 

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[jim4silver]

The world is not black and white. To try and model the world with Econ 101 simplifications like "supply and demand" is going to leave you scratching your head in many situations. The run up in 2011 was likely caused by many factors. I specifically like to stay very "gray" when I analyze the world because the world truly is gray.

I did not talk about supply/demand or manipulation in my first post. I only talked about fear. That's why I resented you once again trying to put words into my mouth. We'd been down that road before and the end result was not pretty. So for the sake of the current thread and forum harmony, I have no intention of going down that road again.

Peace.

Um, you might wish to peruse the thread I just bumped from 2013. I have a good memory on things it seems.

Jim

 

[Marchas45]

Lol you two at it again. Come on guys both of you have different opinions which is great because I learn from that and I believe others do also. Yes I'm one of those PM bugs, Stacker and Prepper because I believe something big is going to happen. Am I afraid (FEAR)? Nope not in the least because I follow what I'm being told from within, guess I'm a modern day Jona. LMAO Nice to see that I'm not forgotten by both of you as I still consider you both a credit to the Precious Metals Section.
By the way TP I wish you would PM me and let me know who you where on the Docs site because I usually don't go after people unless there is a big reason and if I do go after someone it's usually with humor. Lol

Have A Great Weekend guys. Charlie Oop's Keep Stacking

 

[pepperj]

I like what I see, nice going on your purchase.

There's so many different ways to save, some wisely some are not, a little here a little there is a way then there's no real way of getting hurt.

All the best in your short term plan as it's a great goal, sell, buy a machine, reinvest the rest.

I guess it boils down to have something to fall back on, be secure, but not totally out there either.

Wonder sometimes how much money has been spent on now expired rations that are buried just waiting for the SHTF, now if had been spent on PMs how much would it be worth.

I guess it comes down to a piece of mind, ya soft 2 ply or maybe a little 3 ply for the emergencies, it never goes bad, I could trade it for a little.......

 

[Rye]

Jolteon,
I'm with you with the exception I bought ASE. One thing with silver that I'm watching is its use and demand in the industry - solar panels for example require silver. If silver goes back down to $15 I'll buy more, if it hits $30 I'll sale. If it hovers in between, I'll hold.

 

[jolteon]

Jolteon,
I'm with you with the exception I bought ASE. One thing with silver that I'm watching is its use and demand in the industry - solar panels for example require silver. If silver goes back down to $15 I'll buy more, if it hits $30 I'll sale. If it hovers in between, I'll hold.

Agreed I'll probably do the same!

 

[Goose-0]

Gee, this is an inspiring thread....I really enjoy it. I'm a silver nut and have been hoarding for many snows. Many decades ago I started to collect coins and when the guv'mint devalued our coins, I remembered Tom Gresham's Law..."Bad money drives good money out." (Thomas Gresham - a mid 1500s English financier) I then proceeded to pull every silver coin I could afford at that time out of circulation. I did well in quantities of all of the silver coinage in which I still have today. I also have 'stacked' over the years. If silver goes up....great. If it goes down....it doesn't bother me. After all, all of the silver coins I pulled from circulation I got for face value. Inflation you say? I figured it out and I've averaged a 2.4% per year increase. That doesn't figure in the intrinsic value of each coin. Mercs? The last one was minted 70 years ago. What's the normal value of a VG-8 Merc today? Melt value is $1.295 today. What's the melt value of xxxx + Mercs? Of xxxx + Washington quarters? To me, there is nothing more for me to say.

 

[bradley1719]

Gee, this is an inspiring thread....I really enjoy it. I'm a silver nut and have been hoarding for many snows. Many decades ago I started to collect coins and when the guv'mint devalued our coins, I remembered Tom Gresham's Law..."Bad money drives good money out." (Thomas Gresham - a mid 1500s English financier) I then proceeded to pull every silver coin I could afford at that time out of circulation. I did well in quantities of all of the silver coinage in which I still have today. I also have 'stacked' over the years. If silver goes up....great. If it goes down....it doesn't bother me. After all, all of the silver coins I pulled from circulation I got for face value. Inflation you say? I figured it out and I've averaged a 2.4% per year increase. That doesn't figure in the intrinsic value of each coin. Mercs? The last one was minted 70 years ago. What's the normal value of a VG-8 Merc today? Melt value is $1.295 today. What's the melt value of xxxx + Mercs? Of xxxx + Washington quarters? To me, there is nothing more for me to say.

You did well for yourself. Congratulations. A lot of us wish we were in your position. Unfortunately, I was not even born yet when the government stopped putting silver into coins. And I didn't "discover silver" until I was much older and the amount of silver coinage in circulation was significantly lower than I would have preferred. So I missed the boat.

But the OP did not get his silver at face value. He didn't invest in silver when it could still be pulled directly out of pocket change at an alarming rate. Instead, he just bought a cool, 1 kg silver bar at today's prices. And he is asking what a good price would be for trying to unload it as a potential short term investment.

It sounds like you have a lot of experience with the ups and downs of the market. Do you have any advice as to when he should sell his bar? Do you see silver going to $25-$30 in the near term? If so, would that be a good time to pull the trigger and sell or should he hold out for longer?

My personal opinion (and everyone is free to ignore it if they like) is that it is virtually impossible to answer this question. I think it would all depend on why the price went to $25-$30.

For example, if the price shot up because the dollar did indeed collapse, then $25-$30 would be too low. You'd be selling too soon. Likewise, if the price of silver went to $19 because people were afraid that the ECB is starting their own version of QE, then I think $25-$30 would probably be too high. I don't think we'd get to that level on the fear of ECB QE alone. I think it will take a much bigger event that generates enough fear to push the price to that point. What that actual event is will dictate what a reasonable price will be. And if you are waiting for something to come along that pushes the price to a certain level, then you may be left hung out to dry if that "something" either never happens or happens much later than you expected.

I don't think the world is black and white. I think it is gray. And I think you have to look at each and every situation based on the context of that situation. All of this is just my opinion. And unfortunately, I don't have the same track record that you have. So take what I say with a grain of salt.

 

[jolteon]

You did well for yourself. Congratulations. A lot of us wish we were in your position. Unfortunately, I was not even born yet when the government stopped putting silver into coins. And I didn't "discover silver" until I was much older and the amount of silver coinage in circulation was significantly lower than I would have preferred. So I missed the boat.

But the OP did not get his silver at face value. He didn't invest in silver when it could still be pulled directly out of pocket change at an alarming rate. Instead, he just bought a cool, 1 kg silver bar at today's prices. And he is asking what a good price would be for trying to unload it as a potential short term investment.

It sounds like you have a lot of experience with the ups and downs of the market. Do you have any advice as to when he should sell his bar? Do you see silver going to $25-$30 in the near term? If so, would that be a good time to pull the trigger and sell or should he hold out for longer?

My personal opinion (and everyone is free to ignore it if they like) is that it is virtually impossible to answer this question. I think it would all depend on why the price went to $25-$30.

For example, if the price shot up because the dollar did indeed collapse, then $25-$30 would be too low. You'd be selling too soon. Likewise, if the price of silver went to $19 because people were afraid that the ECB is starting their own version of QE, then I think $25-$30 would probably be too high. I don't think we'd get to that level on the fear of ECB QE alone. I think it will take a much bigger event that generates enough fear to push the price to that point. What that actual event is will dictate what a reasonable price will be. And if you are waiting for something to come along that pushes the price to a certain level, then you may be left hung out to dry if that "something" either never happens or happens much later than you expected.

I don't think the world is black and white. I think it is gray. And I think you have to look at each and every situation based on the context of that situation. All of this is just my opinion. And unfortunately, I don't have the same track record that you have. So take what I say with a grain of salt.

That actually really helps and I will take that unto consideration when the time comes to sell the bar. I promise I will take this this thread back up if I
1. Sell the bar
2. Debate about selling the bar or
3. Want to stack more silver
Jolteon

 

[bradley1719]

That actually really helps and I will take that unto consideration when the time comes to sell the bar. I promise I will take this this thread back up if I
1. Sell the bar
2. Debate about selling the bar or
3. Want to stack more silver
Jolteon

Sounds good. Good luck and enjoy that beautiful bar!

 

[billjustbill]

Toilet paper will trump all those.

Don't know if you are old enough to remember those "Diaper Pails" when cloth baby diapers were the norm. I remember the strong/rank ammonia smell when the lid was opened.....

If TP becomes hard to find, squares of absorbent cloth may have to be "used" and then washed & dried for reuse....A new form of diaper pail comes in vogue once more....but for everybody at some point.

 

[FreedomUIC]

Don't know if you are old enough to remember those "Diaper Pails" when cloth baby diapers were the norm. I remember the strong/rank ammonia smell when the lid was opened.....

If TP becomes hard to find, squares of absorbent cloth may have to be "used" and then washed & dried for reuse....A new form of diaper pail comes in vogue once more....but for everybody at some point.

Corn Cobs or the JC Penney catalog. Will never wash squares of cloth..........

 

[Keppy]

Yes the last Silver i sold a few years back i got $32 a oz .. I have more now and am just waiting for Silver to go over $30 again..

 

[el padron]

In a world without "fear", silver has no business being in the $25-$30 range right now, or in the short term future. If it gets to that point then it will be only because of fear. It was fear that took us up to almost $50 and it was a lack of fear that has dropped us down to below $16. So if you want to try and gauge where silver will be in the next few years, think only about fear, not about some of the ridiculous assertions made by silver and gold bugs or the people who misunderstand fiat currencies and quantitative easing.

The ECB quantitative easing will do in Europe exactly what it did in the US: it will stave off the deflationary spiral that we were facing. Although it will take some time, it will eventually help with the problem and reduce fear over the long term. And without fear, silver should be sitting somewhere under $16. Long term, it will be worth more than that. But in the short term it just isn't worth $25-$30 without the fear aspect.

There are a lot of people who really don't understand fiat currencies at all and why they are needed. Suffice it to say that there is not a single country left in the world using a gold or silver standard. And that is because they ALWAYS fail for the same basic reasons. I won't go into those reasons here because I don't want to hijack this thread. Fiat currencies are a necessity and anyone who thinks otherwise really doesn't understand them. I do not proclaim to be an expert either. But I can understand basic logic.

Isn't it amazing that on the internet all posted content is treated equally?
Your contribution should be pinned somewhere near the top of the web sites cover page, but alas it will soon be lost amongst everything else.

You are correct.

The only true currency is the energy expelled by each countries (Tribes) citizens. Paper currency is the token used by the "management" to pay the line duty "employees".
The representative product of that expelled energy is the only true measure of the quality of "civilization" that its subjects reside in...........

 

[jeff of pa]

reminder if you plan to offer to sell to our members you need to be a charter Member

 

[jolteon]

reminder if you plan to offer to sell to our members you need to be a charter Member

Ok did not know I'll edit it immediately sorry

 

[SilverForBeginners]

Wow. Well done!

I don't think you should sell for such low prices given the small size of the Silver market and the mass exodus from paper money into hard assets like Silver, that will occur in the next few years. The pressure on the Silver market will be enormous and you should see much higher prices. Imagine for a moment in a few years if Silver was almost worth what Gold is today. You would be sitting on a massive investment and you would be very glad you didn't sell too early. There are so many fundamentals that point toward Silver going much much higher, like weakening supply, exploding demand, insane currency creation by governments, bubbles in the equity markets and many more.

I would hold on to it and keep adding more. Maybe buy some coins so you have smaller denominations too.

I bought my first 1 kilo bar a few years ago and now have over 50 kilos. You will find that it is sometimes very hard to motivate yourself when the rest of the world is maxing out credit cards and going on expensive holidays but it will all be worth it in the end. When I started out, I made some beginner mistakes that I regret and I know many new Silver investors are facing the same pitfalls.
I really wish you the very best and well done again for making such an awesome commitment.

Keep stacking buddy.

Shawn Verne

 

[Treasure_Hunter]

If you have the right guns and ammo everything else is obtainable.

"Trade you 2 roles of Charmin toilet paper for 10 lbs of meat"

 

[DizzyRose]

Toilet paper will trump all those.

Hahahahahahaha!!



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[DizzyRose]

jim4silver:
I've never heard the term, "sheeple" before, but what a wonderfully great description! I am definitely going to pinch it. Great word! xx


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