Is silver getting ready to break $20?

[jim4silver]

Although I am impressed a bit with silver's recent strength, until I see it close above $20 I will not be too impressed. We have seen this recent type of action quite a bit, only to see the price get smashed once a few of the old silver bugs start to wake up. If we break $20 we will see $26 at least I believe.


PS One interesting story going around the silver sites is that JP Morgan has recently accumulated (depending on what article you read) 350 million ounces or so of silver as reported by Ted Butler. He also says that JP Morgan has been buying large amounts of ASE's and maybe even silver Maples, so they can later melt them into bars? Just for the record, Mr. Butler has been saying JP Morgan has been buying silver since at least early 2014 when he said they had between 100-200 million ounces (see below article). Although I always like reading Mr. Butler's articles because he is an apparent silver guy like me, I consider his writings to contain info that I can never substantiate anywhere else (on the web). Why would JP Morgan buy ASE's and Maples and pay a nice premium, only to melt them down into bars? I guess the idea is that silver is so scarce they can't get 1000 ounce bars elsewhere? I don't get it.

I believe that IF JP Morgan is acquiring large amounts of physical silver (I hope they are) it would mean one of two things, either they think silver is going way up in the future and want to hold the asset for profit, or perhaps if they are one of the "big shorts", then they could use that silver to deliver on their short positions if necessary. But if that is true, it would also mean silver is going to be allowed to move up in price from here, because why would JP Morgan use their silver to short heavy now since they would be selling/delivering the silver for less than they paid? Instead, perhaps they let silver ride up to higher levels, then short the crap out of it at the right level and have the cheaper physical metals on hand to deliver if necessary. So maybe both scenarios are true in that they (and other big players) could use the paper markets/derivatives to ride the silver price up, then when it is time to cap it and short silver, have the metals on hand to deliver if necessary. Although I have read a buyer in the futures can be forced to settle in cash if no physical silver were available (force majeure), the fact that a failure to deliver happened would alone send shock waves in the market. So the physical stash would be necessary to make sure all buyers who seek delivery can get it so there are no failures to deliver. I am just speculating here and there is no way to know for sure if any of this is even reality or not.



Feb 2014 article
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44278.html



current story
Ted Butler: The Biggest Silver Haul In History | Gold Silver Worlds



All my opinion.


Jim

 

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[Goose-0]

I'm surprised that those that control haven't 'swatted' the rise in the silver price lately. Will the price continue to slowly rise or will the 'hammer' strike? My guess is that the price will stay around $17.50 to $17.80 for a month or so, with the price at $17.72 now at 11:55 am CDT.

 

[jim4silver]

I'm surprised that those that control haven't 'swatted' the rise in the silver price lately. Will the price continue to slowly rise or will the 'hammer' strike? My guess is that the price will stay around $17.50 to $17.80 for a month or so, with the price at $17.72 now at 11:55 am CDT.

Looks like the smackdown has begun. Silver held up OK today considering the massive move up in the dollar today. Tomorrow will be interesting for silver that's for sure. If silver is in the early stages of another nice up move, it should keep moving up and will not get back near the 15/16 range. If I had to bet I would say continued smackdown simply based on past actions, but my gut is telling me different as far as direction goes.

Jim

 

[billjustbill]

Although I am impressed a bit with silver's recent strength, until I see it close above $20 I will not be too impressed. We have seen this recent type of action quite a bit, only to see the price get smashed once a few of the old silver bugs start to wake up. If we break $20 we will see $26 at least I believe.


PS One interesting story going around the silver sites is that JP Morgan has recently accumulated (depending on what article you read) 350 million ounces or so of silver as reported by Ted Butler. He also says that JP Morgan has been buying large amounts of ASE's and maybe even silver Maples, so they can later melt them into bars? Just for the record, Mr. Butler has been saying JP Morgan has been buying silver since at least early 2014 when he said they had between 100-200 million ounces (see below article). Although I always like reading Mr. Butler's articles because he is an apparent silver guy like me, I consider his writings to contain info that I can never substantiate anywhere else (on the web). Why would JP Morgan buy ASE's and Maples and pay a nice premium, only to melt them down into bars? I guess the idea is that silver is so scarce they can't get 1000 ounce bars elsewhere? I don't get it.

I believe that IF JP Morgan is acquiring large amounts of physical silver (I hope they are) it would mean one of two things, either they think silver is going way up in the future and want to hold the asset for profit, or perhaps if they are one of the "big shorts", then they could use that silver to deliver on their short positions if necessary. But if that is true, it would also mean silver is going to be allowed to move up in price from here, because why would JP Morgan use their silver to short heavy now since they would be selling/delivering the silver for less than they paid? Instead, perhaps they let silver ride up to higher levels, then short the crap out of it at the right level and have the cheaper physical metals on hand to deliver if necessary. So maybe both scenarios are true in that they (and other big players) could use the paper markets/derivatives to ride the silver price up, then when it is time to cap it and short silver, have the metals on hand to deliver if necessary. Although I have read a buyer in the futures can be forced to settle in cash if no physical silver were available (force majeure), the fact that a failure to deliver happened would alone send shock waves in the market. So the physical stash would be necessary to make sure all buyers who seek delivery can get it so there are no failures to deliver. I am just speculating here and there is no way to know for sure if any of this is even reality or not.



Feb 2014 article
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44278.html



current story
Ted Butler: The Biggest Silver Haul In History | Gold Silver Worlds



All my opinion.


Jim

Jim,

What if....

What if all that acquired silver is for more than just offsetting market obligations...

What if silver, by the ounce or by the bar, is used/required for industry....

Remember when the "Manhattan Project" started DURING WWII? They couldn't get enough copper, so they project went to the Mint and got the Government to allot silver to make all the wiring....

What if all this silver is going to be used for both a monetary stabilization to keep J.P. Morgan afloat as collateral to secure loans on residential and commercial properties that are purchased at "Fire Sale" prices....

What if all this silver is to be used in the development of technology? Remember, Germany used it in making "Silver Batteries" that lasted and were the best. What if this type of technology and material is needed after the grid goes down or used when solar panel advancement enters a higher stage of efficiency....

Whereas Gold could do most all the same things if there was a depth to the rich ore mining and vast pure metal reserves, Silver has a "Front" and a "Back" door. Along with economic currency value, it also has the volume of production and the refined amounts of metal reserves to sustain the long term usage.... When America is pulling itself out of the coming mess, it's advanced technology and basic supply and demand of materials that will be required.

Of course, if the Government needs it, you'll face a repeat of both the wartime "Scrap Metal Drives" and "Confiscation Laws"(the law applied to both gold AND silver), and it will be at some price far below Silver's true Value..., too. But, I'll leave that up to you as to preemptive or post-passage of those laws and how to get around them... ;>)

What if,
Bill

 

[jim4silver]

Jim,

What if....

What if all that acquired silver is for more than just offsetting market obligations...

What if silver, by the ounce or by the bar, is used/required for industry....

Remember when the "Manhattan Project" started DURING WWII? They couldn't get enough copper, so they project went to the Mint and got the Government to allot silver to make all the wiring....

What if all this silver is going to be used for both a monetary stabilization to keep J.P. Morgan afloat as collateral to secure loans on residential and commercial properties that are purchased at "Fire Sale" prices....

What if all this silver is to be used in the development of technology? Remember, Germany used it in making "Silver Batteries" that lasted and were the best. What if this type of technology and material is needed after the grid goes down or used when solar panel advancement enters a higher stage of efficiency....

Whereas Gold could do most all the same things if there was a depth to the rich ore mining and vast pure metal reserves, Silver has a "Front" and a "Back" door. Along with economic currency value, it also has the volume of production and the refined amounts of metal reserves to sustain the long term usage.... When America is pulling itself out of the coming mess, it's advanced technology and basic supply and demand of materials that will be required.

Of course, if the Government needs it, you'll face a repeat of both the wartime "Scrap Metal Drives" and "Confiscation Laws"(the law applied to both gold AND silver), and it will be at some price far below Silver's true Value..., too. But, I'll leave that up to you as to preemptive or post-passage of those laws and how to get around them... ;>)

What if,
Bill

Bill,

I don't know how to respond to the many "what if's?", but I do believe truth is often stranger than fiction. Gold and silver will have their "day" sometime in the next 1 to 5 years. I am 100% confident we will see a day when many "paper" investments crash or lose a large percentage of value. This might be due to defaults, world disasters, war, etc, etc. I don't know when or how it will happen, just that it will happen. Everything moves in cycles, and there are cycles within cycles. What we are witnessing via massive increased debt and "money creation" is what has happened in civilizations for eons, albeit in manners that were/are common according to the times. In ancient Rome, over time they lowered the percentage of silver in the denarius from 99+% down to less than 1%. This reduced silver content correlated with the end of Rome. This is fact not a conspiracy theory. To keep the masses happy, politicians figure out ways to enrich themselves and give the sheep more stuff to keep them happy, but nobody can really pay for all the crap so debt gets created and currencies get diluted. The same thing happened in other places and is happening in many countries today. There will be only one way out of this "mess": the systems(s) crash and then rebuild. It's not the end of the world, but could be the end of many folks' wealth and the beginning of other folks' wealth who are positioned correctly.

It doesn't take a genius to see what is taking place right here right now. It seems clear our gov is preparing for massive social unrest right here. There is no reason for a "Jade Helm" exercise, other than to prep for controlling the masses here for "some reason". Our military has had years of practice going door to door and practicing "urban warfare" in Iraq, etc. No reason to move massive military equipment around here in the states to prepare for war someplace else. So if they are preparing for something here, what could it be? I think I know: You see how folks react on Black Friday to get a pair of sneakers or new toy for their kid, what do you think would happen if some big crash or something like that happened here and banks closed, or ebt cards were shut off. It would not be pretty at all. I am not criticizing our gov for doing these Jade Helm things because I believe at the upper levels they are fairly sure what is coming, and maybe even when it is coming. The disinfo blogs will make it seem like the gov is going to round up people and such, but this is a BS smokescreen to cover the real reason such as economic collapse, etc. Thus anyone who follows the disinfo guys looks like a conspiracy kook and the sheep believe everything is OK and nothing to worry about.

But just because there might be something big and bad coming doesn't mean those who preach about/against it are correct in what they say. That is where the linked Ted Butler article comes into play. My view is these online pundits have run out of things positive about PM's so they make stuff up (try to extrapolate some proven facts to fit their "stories") to keep their readers interested. If they simply said "buy silver and gold, someday you'll need it", nobody would be interested because we have been in a downtrend for too long. So let's instead tell neat stories that NEVER seem to come true, then when our latest story falls flat, let's make up a new one. There are some pundits on sites like Silverdoctors, etc, that seem to change their calls from week to week, ie "silver is going to crash soon!" then next week, "silver is going to go parabolic". So these pundits have their bases covered so whatever happens, they can trot out one of their many commentaries and find the one that happened to be right and say "see I told you so".

I don't believe we will ever see a gold or silver confiscation because not enough people have the metals and more importantly, because those at the higher end of the wealth spectrum will want to be able to keep their gold (and silver). And back in 33 they needed the gold before they could devalue the dollar which is what happened. Gold/silver bugs called it a gold confiscation but that was just the means of accomplishing a dollar devaluation. From what I read nobody went to jail for not turning in their gold back then, not one. I think we will see 401Ks and IRAs being forced into Treasuries, etc, before any gold and silver "confiscation".

PS I have mentioned this before, but the 2002 Bernanke speech gave a road map to what the fed could do to stop deflation. Of the methods he mentioned back then, only one has not been used yet since 2008, and that is a dollar devaluation. That is the only "tool" the Fed has left in its arsenal. You will see that here someday, when I can't say. Here is an article that discusses the highlights of that Bernanke speech and mentions the dollar "devaluation".

http://www.internationalman.com/articles/ben-bernanke-revisiting-the-helicopter-speech

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[surijohn92]

Last time when I checked, it was trading around $15.

 

[surijohn92]

Recently I have been across this forecast which suggests that the prices are definitely gonna surge up in the future and the reason is not only the tight supply but also, rising demand all around the world. Silver is widely used for making jewelry as well as many of the fabrication and industrial applications. Also, use solar energy and it's popularity is also a fundamental for it's rising demand. A source says that in 2000, 1 million ounces of silver was used for the manufacturing of photo-voltaic cells.

 

[surijohn92]

Recently I have been across this forecast which suggests that the prices are definitely gonna surge up in the future and the reason is not only the tight supply but also, rising demand all around the world. Silver is widely used for making jewelry as well as many of the fabrication and industrial applications. Also, use solar energy and it's popularity is also a fundamental for it's rising demand. A source says that in 2000, 1 million ounces of silver was used for the manufacturing of photo-voltaic cells.

 

[Mackaydon]

Jim,
Silver may break $20, but before then, I hope it breaks into the 12s.
Don...........

 

[worldtalker]

Jim,
Silver may break $20, but before then, I hope it breaks into the 12s.
Don...........

BUY...BUY...BUY.

 

[Mackaydon]

"Patience, grasshopper."
Don.....

 

[worldtalker]

"Patience, grasshopper."
Don.....

I have a wait and see attitude.

 

[bradley1719]

Recently I have been across this forecast which suggests that the prices are definitely gonna surge up in the future and the reason is not only the tight supply but also, rising demand all around the world. Silver is widely used for making jewelry as well as many of the fabrication and industrial applications. Also, use solar energy and it's popularity is also a fundamental for it's rising demand. A source says that in 2000, 1 million ounces of silver was used for the manufacturing of photo-voltaic cells.

I would not put much faith into such "forecasts". There are countless individuals out there who have a vested interest in making you believe that silver is about to skyrocket. Some of these individuals profit monetarily while others simply profit from maintaining their egos. Either way, I'd take such forecasts with a grain of salt.

The reality is that the industrial uses of silver today absolutely pale in comparison to silver usage back in the '60s when it was used for photography, silver coinage, jewelry, and silverware. I believe the silver market has never really recovered from the loss of those uses. So when someone tells you that silver use is "rising", you need to know "in relation to what?". Just because silver usage goes up over a couple of years does not mean that the increase will have a drastic effect on prices.

Also, keep in mind that (like gold) silver usage in industrial applications is self limiting. As the price goes up, manufacturers find cheaper alternatives that serve the same purpose. In solar panels, there are several companies that are looking at combinations of nickel, tin, and copper to replace silver. Although it is not currently cost effective to use such substitutes, a fairly large rise in silver prices would certainly change this line of thinking. This limits the effect that industrial uses can have on silver pricing.

But this is all just my opinion. You are certainly free to believe otherwise.

 

[Marchas45]

I'm still around and still buying. LMAO

 

[fistfulladirt]

So what's the point in waiting for ten dollar silver, if the premium spread makes it more expensive than $15?

 

[Mackaydon]

If continually 'stacking' in a downward silver market is an investor's strategy of 'averaging down' ones losses while waiting a turnaround, thenso be it. I, too, will do it with silver, but not from a startingprice of 30 or 25 or 20 or even 15. My jump off point is 12 and I'll stack and 'average down' from there—if it ever gets there. Meanwhile, a cash dividend of over 5% per year from A T &T common stock is still an acceptable'holding pattern' for me. Just saying.....to each his own.
Don.....

 

[bradley1719]

So what's the point in waiting for ten dollar silver, if the premium spread makes it more expensive than $15?

My prediction is that about two years from now when the price of silver hits bottom, the way we'll know it is that premiums will be near zero. I don't know how low it will go. But I think we will have plenty of time to buy at those prices.

 

[Marchas45]

O! O! Bradley is making predictions now. Don't fall into being a Guru Trap. LMAO Keep Stacking

 

[Goose-0]

I am. Right on MarchasVL.

 

[Gold IRA]

Check out this forecast: Forget about whether $100 silver is possible — how about $1,000?