Local store report

[jim4silver]

Just wondering how your local stores are doing with respect to silver supply and premiums? I have several local stores (a few big, most smaller) and the big ones are mostly out of all generic, ASE's, Maples, etc, and are taking pre orders where the customer pays and waits (not me). The best (and biggest) store just sent me a notice saying they have 12+ week wait times for generic 1 oz bars/rounds and 10 oz bars. ASE's and Maples they don't know when, and 100 oz silver bars coming in 3 weeks (not for me thanks). They do have plenty of junk silver though at high prices.

Kind of weird that I was paying less at $16 per ounce than I would have to pay now (that is if they have any). The smaller stores have some, but want $2.50+ per ounce of generic. Junk silver is going for 13.7 to 14.5 x face ($19.00 to $19.50 per ounce) and that is available (I can see why).

I hope silver drops more and the wait times get to 6 months, etc., although that is wishful thinking on my part.


Jim

 

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[Nitric]

That's what doesn't make sense to me! The more I try? The more I don't understand. I've seen this type of thing before in 08 09. in there. It's almost like there are two markets. At times I couldn't sell enough, other times I couldn't buy enough. But it never matched spot or you couldn't move it, or lose. I only had a short experience in it. Some of it just never made sense. If spot changed premiums just went up and down. At first I thought it was because people were considering sales tax in their purchase. But after watching and also seeing the prices in areas that didn't have the sales tax, it was all the same and didn't seem to matter much to the average person. Unless, they were huge transactions.

To reflect actual market? there shouldn't be wait times! That shows a shortage! Right? From big suppliers. Not talking about the hole in the wall place.

If you have to wait for your actual silver? Then your just loaning money, or leveling it. Why would anyone wait on actual silver at today's price? I see why! But does not make sense! Almost like buying paper?

 

[jim4silver]

That's what doesn't make sense to me! The more I try? The more I don't understand. I've seen this type of thing before in 08 09. in there. It's almost like there are two markets. At times I couldn't sell enough, other times I couldn't buy enough. But it never matched spot or you couldn't move it, or lose. I only had a short experience in it. Some of it just never made sense. If spot changed premiums just went up and down. At first I thought it was because people were considering sales tax in their purchase. But after watching and also seeing the prices in areas that didn't have the sales tax, it was all the same and didn't seem to matter much to the average person. Unless, they were huge transactions.

To reflect actual market? there shouldn't be wait times! That shows a shortage! Right? From big suppliers. Not talking about the hole in the wall place.

If you have to wait for your actual silver? Then your just loaning money, or leveling it. Why would anyone wait on actual silver at today's price? I see why! But does not make sense! Almost like buying paper?

It will all depend on how long the price stays low. I guess if the price stayed at this level for a long time, in theory the supply would catch up as people got used to the lower prices. This is what happened when silver dropped from 26 to 22, etc a couple of years ago and the buyers went crazy cleaning out the local stores. But back then the price was still relatively "high" compared to now. So I don't know if as we drop lower it really will matter "this time" and we see a real break in the paper vs. physical market? I don't count on anything anymore in the PM markets.

When silver dropped in 2008 down to $9 the price shot back fairly quick so we didn't see anything like now with respect to delays, etc. I would like to buy now and have been picking up odds and ends here and there when I can get cool stuff cheap, like foreign silver, etc. I really have no desire for generics anymore and the ASEs are still too much for me premium-wise even at lower prices.

Jim

 

[Nitric]

If I was saving it. Scrap use to be the best deal for the money.If you took into account refining fees and purity. At one point I could have more actual gold and silver weight in scrap for a lot less. It's still gold and silver. The problem with that is knowing what to do with it if you have sell it which is getting harder and harder for the average person. And other issues not mentioning.

Just thinking too! For dealers to be selling their scrap for high prices? Would mean that they think it's going up, or they are just reaching for a high paying customer. Silver scrap usually or did have higher refining fees. We were always very happy to sell at spot for actual weight on content, or even below spot. We were still making more than sending to melt. Gold too. And we had people that did the math on actual content and bought it regularly. So, times change quick!

 

[jim4silver]

If I was saving it. Scrap use to be the best deal for the money.If you took into account refining fees and purity. At one point I could have more actual gold and silver weight in scrap for a lot less. It's still gold and silver. The problem with that is knowing what to do with it if you have sell it which is getting harder and harder for the average person. And other issues not mentioning.

Just thinking too! For dealers to be selling their scrap for high prices? Would mean that they think it's going up, or they are just reaching for a high paying customer. Silver scrap usually or did have higher refining fees. We were always very happy to sell at spot for actual weight on content, or even below spot. We were still making more than sending to melt. Gold too. And we had people that did the math on actual content and bought it regularly. So, times change quick!

I don't trust buying scrap and such because I would not know how to identify it. I do well finding great deals in "normal times" on silver coins locally. I recently considered checking the local dealers for sterling forks and spoons (or whatever items are all sterling and you don't have to break off handles, etc) if the price was cheap relative to spot just to stash and dump if/when prices go up, but even that I wouldn't know for sure if the item was really sterling or not just because it is stamped. I trust my coin knowledge more.


Jim

 

[Nitric]

I don't trust buying scrap and such because I would not know how to identify it. I do well finding great deals in "normal times" on silver coins locally. I recently considered checking the local dealers for sterling forks and spoons (or whatever items are all sterling and you don't have to break off handles, etc) if the price was cheap relative to spot just to stash and dump if/when prices go up, but even that I wouldn't know for sure if the item was really sterling or not just because it is stamped. I trust my coin knowledge more.


Jim

I caught the tail end of the era where it was really kind of easy! Just when I started to understand, what was what ,it exploded, and everyone was looking and knew what to look for! Buy places popped up everywhere! People were more aware! Hope it kind drops out long enough for people to lose interest and then explode again! I know what to do next time! I'm not all that old, but man I wish we could turn back time! Gold below 400, silver coin at 4 and 5 times face. and even cheaper! Eagles 9 bucks from a dealer!

 

[Argentium]

It's tough to make money on this stuff now (unless you have a lot of money and can buy 100's or 1000's of ounces of gold or silver)
the margins are tight - between the dealers raising the premium percentages when the P.M.'s drop , and not paying close to spot
when we attempt to sell - combine this with now decades of shows like Antiques Roadshow , Pawn Stars , Pickers , etc. and you
have a lot more awareness of potential value among garage and estate sale shoppers/ sellers . This awareness extends now to
coin roll hunting as well . My dour remarks here are by no means an indication that I am "throwing in the towel" so to speak -
just a realization that a lot of the low hanging fruit is gone and it aint coming back . By continuing to educate ourselves we
can still thrive through a multifaceted approach to the aforementioned methods of treasure hunting ,and I will always have
a relationship with Silver in all formats because I love the beauty of it . I realize now that this rant may be more appropriately
placed over in general discussion .

 

[jim4silver]

It's tough to make money on this stuff now (unless you have a lot of money and can buy 100's or 1000's of ounces of gold or silver)
the margins are tight - between the dealers raising the premium percentages when the P.M.'s drop , and not paying close to spot
when we attempt to sell - combine this with now decades of shows like Antiques Roadshow , Pawn Stars , Pickers , etc. and you
have a lot more awareness of potential value among garage and estate sale shoppers/ sellers . This awareness extends now to
coin roll hunting as well . My dour remarks here are by no means an indication that I am "throwing in the towel" so to speak -
just a realization that a lot of the low hanging fruit is gone and it aint coming back . By continuing to educate ourselves we
can still thrive through a multifaceted approach to the aforementioned methods of treasure hunting ,and I will always have
a relationship with Silver in all formats because I love the beauty of it . I realize now that this rant may be more appropriately
placed over in general discussion .

Although I can't speak for your situation, I can say where I am, the dealers increase the premiums because the wholesalers increase their premiums. My dealers are paying over spot now even on generic because they have 12 week delays on new stuff they order. They are paying more than normal for ASEs, Maples, etc.

If you talk to brick and mortar coin dealers they will tell you it is very hard for them to make $$$ these days on selling bullion. The spreads are tight and the online stores are taking much of their business (in places where the local stores charge too much). My local stores (the bigger ones) are generally cheaper than online since there is much competition here, unlike some places with one or two local coin stores who can set their own prices.

As far as coin roll hunting, I am clean of that addiction. Nothing like endless skunks to cure that habit. Then getting shorted at the coin counting machine, so the experience actually results in a loss.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[Nitric]

It's tough to make money on this stuff now (unless you have a lot of money and can buy 100's or 1000's of ounces of gold or silver)
the margins are tight - between the dealers raising the premium percentages when the P.M.'s drop , and not paying close to spot
when we attempt to sell - combine this with now decades of shows like Antiques Roadshow , Pawn Stars , Pickers , etc. and you
have a lot more awareness of potential value among garage and estate sale shoppers/ sellers . This awareness extends now to
coin roll hunting as well . My dour remarks here are by no means an indication that I am "throwing in the towel" so to speak -
just a realization that a lot of the low hanging fruit is gone and it aint coming back . By continuing to educate ourselves we
can still thrive through a multifaceted approach to the aforementioned methods of treasure hunting ,and I will always have
a relationship with Silver in all formats because I love the beauty of it . I realize now that this rant may be more appropriately
placed over in general discussion .

You nailed it! If your only making a $1 or 2$ or less depending a dwt, what's the point! When you could make $4 or $5 in the past all day. Too much money put out for the profit. Unless like you said, you have millions to play with and are moving serious volume. Huge volume is the only way. So, if you can move 400 dwt a day at $2 a dwt? That's still not much after all your overhead and costs, refining fees, ohh Not to mention law changes, that cost money and way more work per transaction. It would still be ok money, but what did it cost to make it? or risk to make it? And it's not flowing like that now either! Because of what you mentioned above.

 

[basque-man]

We were in a "pawn shop" the other day down in the valley from us. Silver on hand was completely wiped out. What they did have was way over priced. Most regular coins, washington quarters, rosies and such were sky high. I asked the guy and he would not come down at all. Said people were still buying even at the marked up prices. WOW!!

 

[bradley1719]

There are different silver markets. What you are seeing is just shortages in one specific market (consumer investment grade coinage). This doesn't mean that silver is scarce overall. There is plenty of silver in the world. Each time the price takes a significant drop, those that want to try and catch the falling knife rush in and put pressure on this one, specific market. That's all it is. When the price levels out the LCS stocks level out again.

As far as the premiums are concerned, this is just the natural effect of the price consistently falling. When the price is consistently going up, anyone can make money buying/selling silver (or buying/selling stocks). It becomes much harder when the price is consistently going down. The premiums are there for two reasons: 1) people who are trying to catch the falling knife are willing to pay them, and 2) your LCS/dealer cannot constantly sell silver for less than they just bought it for or they will go out of business.

I think it is a little similar to what has been going on in the .22LR ammo market over the past few years. Yes, .22LR ammo is hard to buy locally and there is a large premium because of it. But anyone who thinks there is a true shortage of .22LR ammo in the world is kidding themselves. And some day, the price of that .22LR ammo is going to crash as a result of all of those people constantly running out to buy more ammo out of fear or as an investment.

When the day comes where the average investor stops trying to catch the falling knife and instead just gets completely fed up with the price of silver constantly falling, then the price of silver will crash even more. Just like with .22LR ammo, all those people who have been buying and hoarding will be left holding the bag until the market eventually comes back around again. And this could take years or decades to happen. By then, most of those people will have become disillusioned and sold off at a serious loss. Luckily, those buying now are buying near the bottom so they won't be too bad off. But those who have been playing this game for four years have already lost a LOT of money.

This is just my opinion.... I could be very wrong.

 

[fistfulladirt]

As far as coin roll hunting, I am clean of that addiction. Nothing like endless skunks to cure that habit. Then getting shorted at the coin counting machine, so the experience actually results in a loss.

Just my opinion.

Jim

I also got that monkey off my back Jim, over a year ago. Although it was more for the love of the hunt for me, I had to face facts and realize that the cost did not justify the means, even though I steadily found silver.

 

[Red James Cash]

. Said people were still buying even at the marked up prices. WOW!!

Because the economy is on its way out.

 

[Goose-0]

R J C, I believe you're right. The equivocations spewed by the government, the no actions whatsoever by congress, the overbearing taxation by government entities.......it's all coming to a head. When? I don't know, but it's on its way.

 

[Red James Cash]

R J C, I believe you're right. The equivocations spewed by the government, the no actions whatsoever by congress, the overbearing taxation by government entities.......it's all coming to a head. When? I don't know, but it's on its way.

Yup,but the dollar is stronger than everMy guess within 6 months,if we're not lucky 1.

 

[jim4silver]

Why do stock holders think the market only goes up? I had to listen this morning at the gym to some old retired buys b!tching that their mutual funds, etc where going to lose value, and they seemed surprised? I guess when the Fed has kept rates at ZERO for so many YEARS it seems like a tough thing to accept when stocks DO fall.

In any event, my local stores had a little new foreign stuff so I got it today. They had some generic that is similar to the chinese stuff so I said NO to that.

Jim

 

[lastleg]

Maybe the retired guys should have diversified. Putting all your assets into one financial
product or a stack of silver is a recipe for disaster. The bull will return after the shakeout.
It always has.

 

[jim4silver]

Maybe the retired guys should have diversified. Putting all your assets into one financial
product or a stack of silver is a recipe for disaster. The bull will return after the shakeout.
It always has.

"It always has"...... You sound like the old guys at the gym now. LOL! You might want to look at some time periods in the past where stocks where flat or down for a bit. Over time everything goes up so to speak- the price of homes, cars, stock indexes, incomes. But this is perhaps partially in NOMINAL terms only- think buying power (that is an issue for another day).

I opine that someday we will see a DOW at 20,000 or 30,000, etc. I have ZERO doubt of that. But I don't think that will be soon. I think we will see a much needed correction first, that though has not happened in several years. Going this many years without a meaningful correction is unheard of in a "normal" bull stock market- at least according to history.

If anyone thinks the most recent run up has anything to do with the "economy" improving, I would say they are wrong. When you have a Fed making interest rates ZERO, what do you think that will cause people with money to invest in? Get less than 1% on a bank CD, or roll that cash into the stock market which is about the only thing for average folks to do other than bank the cash? So, one has to give credit to the Fed, at least in part, for this bull run up since the QEs began I believe.

The next big stock run up will occur after some future event causes inflationary forces to come back. I don't know what that is yet, perhaps a QE 5 or 6, etc.

Everything moves in cycles. Someday gold and silver will go up too. "They always do"... It just might take 10 years or 50 years (or less I hope).


Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[lastleg]

And how will you know when to sell to recoup your losses? And will that put you back to where
you were back then? Or is it really a buy and hold strategy that depends on hope?

 

[jim4silver]

And how will you know when to sell to recoup your losses? And will that put you back to where
you were back then? Or is it really a buy and hold strategy that depends on hope?

What losses do you mean?