How low will silver go?

[fistfulladirt]

Personally, I don't buy into the notion that gold and silver are being manipulated by any group to the extent of controlling the price.

Major banks such as Deutsche and Barclays have recently been fined millions of dollars for price smashing precious metals. I’m not sure if their actions have any effect on price control.

 

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[jim4silver]

Major banks such as Deutsche and Barclays have recently been fined millions of dollars for price smashing precious metals. I’m not sure if their actions have any effect on price control.

I believe there definitely is manipulation, but probably in all other markets too. Just like in oil when OPEC decides to intentionally cut production to try and raise price, etc.

The manipulation where they get fined is because it is illegal. In my opinion most of the "manipulation" so to speak in metals is legal per se. I view the Comex type of futures markets as allowing manipulation in a sense because it allows the equivalent of naked short selling. For example, if a person wants to sell "short" silver in the Comex, they put up a "margin" amount of $$$ and can control 5000 ounces of metal per contract. The current margin is $3960 if memory serves per contract. That means with that sum a person can "sell" or go long (buy) 5000 ounces of silver. They have to maintain that margin amount in their account if the price of silver moves against their position on any given day of course.

If a person bought 5000 ounces of physical silver at melt, it would cost $70,000. But for $4000 you can trade that same amount of silver with the futures. You don't even need to own or have access to 5000 ounces of real silver to go short, just $4000 and a futures trading account.

If large institutions want to move the price in silver, it wouldn't take much to load up on contracts and control millions of ounces of silver without needing the actual silver in hand nor the full value of that silver (what you would need to purchase the physical).

To me this whole system seems fraudulent and easily manipulated by deep pockets because all of the buying and selling of millions of "ounces" of silver without any need for the real metal (unless the long decides to stand for delivery, which is rare). Just paper contracts being bought and sold. And this is the system that sets the silver price you pay for real physical silver at the coin store. The changing premiums you pay are what show the real supply and demand of the physical metal, not the "spot" price itself.

The futures markets were supposedly designed to help producers (farmers, miners, drillers, etc.) hedge their output so they can try to reduce risk. But in reality it allows deep pockets to affect price too easily irrespective of the actual supply and demand of the underlying commodity in my opinion. However, there is probably no way to make such a market 100% fair.

Even though, if demand in silver and gold ever picks up again, the price will move up despite any "manipulation". Just like it did from 2001-2011.

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Deleted for no point and rambling. Just have to say I agree haha.

 

[Johnnybravo300]

I'm definitely the stacker type and have never sold any yet. It's in cold storage until I'm at retirement age and not to be taken from, only added to. I've accepted the fact that I may have to work until I die but I just hope to lessen the load.
At 47 I cant afford to take risks with my savings and I dont know where else to put it. Metals are the only place I know that I can be sure it will still be there someday.

 

[fistfulladirt]

I'm definitely the stacker type and have never sold any yet. It's in cold storage until I'm at retirement age and not to be taken from, only added to. I've accepted the fact that I may have to work until I die but I just hope to lessen the load.
At 47 I cant afford to take risks with my savings and I dont know where else to put it. Metals are the only place I know that I can be sure it will still be there someday.

Same here, although I’ve had a love for old coins since before I was a teen. I’m 56 now. Not sure if my job will carry me to retirement, will there be such a thing? Nothing in life is guaranteed...I do have a 401k and vested pension, pensions being rare nowadays but I’m thankful. Family of four and two teens quickly approaching college age, uncertain about the future...having a small stack just makes me feel better, and if metal detecting can’t always bring me the old coins I desire, I get the bug and have to buy one...or two, or thirty...

 

[FreedomUIC]

Jim brings up a good point about retirement. We are lucky, by we I mean my wife and myself. We both will have a pension from the state as we are school district employees and SS. Those checks will be almost what we make know when we retire. We just sold the family farm my wife and her sister inherited from their father. That will give us a nice nest egg at the end of 10 years. We receive XXX per month, every month, for the next 10 years. I retire in Five, give or take. This sale allows both families to start withdrawing money from the two rental homes which in the past went to pay the property taxes on the farm. We just purchased 18 acres in the Blue Ridge mountains, old unharvested timberland at a phenomenal price per acre, that will be our retirement home and we will sell what we have in Florida when we make the move. The two rental homes will also be sold within the next five years as well.

We are sitting pretty for the first time in over 30 years, no debt (Except House) and outside income to stash in a bank in another state. I will start adding silver and gold when I think the premium's justify the purchase, so far they have not met my criteria.

 

[fistfulladirt]

Jim brings up a good point about retirement. We are lucky, by we I mean my wife and myself. We both will have a pension from the state as we are school district employees and SS. Those checks will be almost what we make know when we retire. We just sold the family farm my wife and her sister inherited from their father. That will give us a nice nest egg at the end of 10 years. We receive XXX per month, every month, for the next 10 years. I retire in Five, give or take. This sale allows both families to start withdrawing money from the two rental homes which in the past went to pay the property taxes on the farm. We just purchased 18 acres in the Blue Ridge mountains, old unharvested timberland at a phenomenal price per acre, that will be our retirement home and we will sell what we have in Florida when we make the move. The two rental homes will also be sold within the next five years as well.

We are sitting pretty for the first time in over 30 years, no debt (Except House) and outside income to stash in a bank in another state. I will start adding silver and gold when I think the premium's justify the purchase, so far they have not met my criteria.

Social Security, I’m not too sure about. Government pensions? In deep doo-doo, yet pretty much guaranteed by taxpayers.

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Greenspan said they can guarantee any payments and for as long as they want, just can't guarantee the purchasing power. With every trillion printed from thin air my stack becomes much more valuable. Keep printing! You're doing a great job!

 

[jim4silver]

Whenever people say there is no manipulation in PM's (or other markets) I wonder where they get their info. Having said that, I wonder if the impact of said manipulation really matters much? In other words, if world wide demand ever spiked for PM's, I don't think this type of manipulation would matter so much.

PS Like everything, the little fish are the ones they catch and punish. But is interesting that the manipulation came from a "bank" and was not some lone wolf investors.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/b...th-spoofing-in-gold-silver-futures-2018-10-01

 

[Johnnybravo300]

You can see the true value of PM's and what it will buy in a failing currency. 6 million Bolivars for a chicken to feed your family, or a 1/4 oz of silver. That's why I stack.
Most are suffering while others pay off their mortgages with an oz of gold. Most aren't on the right side when things go bad, and things always eventually go bad.

 

[A2coins]

glad its 2018

 

[jim4silver]

Bloodletting in the stock market makes my silver coins not seem so bad today. I'm guessing most stock holders buy and hold, instead of trade, so many probably didn't cash out any profit at the top earlier in the year? Maybe it will turn around?

 

[Davers]

The PM 'Game' "BangHead "

Thanks for the words of wisdom & your updated opinion.
Davey

 

[Johnnybravo300]

It's more noticeable than hemorrhoids but less comfortable to deal with. And the more they push, the more its bulging. You wont read about this comparison on fox news.

 

[fistfulladirt]

Wow is it boring.

 

[A2coins]

Its going to go up I really hope

 

[Mackaydon]

As I write this, silver is down 2% for the day; at $14.13; only ten cents short of its one-year low and only 48 cents short of its five-year low.
Probably the Fed not raising rates has something to do with this. I am stubborn and perhaps foolish to believe it will drop to my BUY figure of below $13.00. Meanwhile, holding equities today continues not to be a bad investment.
Don......

 

[A2coins]

Thanks for the input!!!!!

 

[Marchas45]

Hi! Don you should be happy, you called this drop to $14 a few years ago, I hope you stacked up my friend. Keep Stacking

 

[jim4silver]

We need to breach $20 for me to feel like we are "out of the woods" with respect to going below $15 again anytime soon.

Look at this nice weekly chart. If we close this week at or above $18.30 or so, it will be breaking out of resistance that has held since the high from last August. If that happens, $20 should be just around the corner.

http://schrts.co/NgdfqBbE


What is interesting is that the dollar is up too. The weekly chart for the dollar shows it is going to pop up through resistance or drop big. Hard to tell which way?

http://schrts.co/dGktWAyn