Precious metal pundits

[jim4silver]

Although I don't believe much in them, I do find myself reading from the various "pundits" on some of the popular pro PM websites from time to time. While I can't think of one who has been correct very much, I have noticed that some serve as "inverse indicators". If that is true, then PMs should rise faster than what you might think.

I've noticed on some pro pm sites the pundits are now calling for silver (and gold) to go LOWER from here. Maybe the metals will do that? Or maybe the pundits have been wrong for so long they decided to not fight the trend?

They say a bear market ends when there is capitulation and blood in the streets. For silver we could add also: when permabull PM pundits start writing bearish articles about PMs?

There are even some pundits who claim that it is not possible to stand for delivery for silver/gold with Comex contracts, and hasn't been for a couple of years. You won't see mention of this in an official or mainstream news articles, only from these pundits. I can tell you if there was a "default" on a Comex contract, it would be BIG news. Yes defaults can happen legally speaking, but are very rare and very publicly known when they happen.

Some of these pundits have even said the Long side was given an extra money settlement to accept cash instead of their gold/silver delivery on their contract (maybe a kind of "go away quietly" money?). If this were true, you'd see hedge funds loading up long to get that extra "payment" and would do so over and over. This particular story doesn't say where that extra money payment comes from?

My thinking now is that since many permabear pundits are saying lower gold/silver for at least short to mid term due to strong dollar, maybe they will be wrong and PMs will do just the opposite? Or maybe the pundits will be correct for a change?

Will be interesting to see where we are come September-ish time period.


Jim

 

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[Johnnybravo300]

Yep the manipulation is so thick you could cut it with a knife.

 

[diggummup]

I think the entire Monetary system from A-Z is rigged and run by the elite class. They in turn also control the world to a certain effect.

 

[Johnnybravo300]

It is rigged by our fiat system alone but the eventual crash of the dollar will end that until a new one is invented haha. Its happened every time in the past and no reason to think this will be different except maybe more ugly. Maybe we will go digital this time. That would be a lot easier to control than our physical dollars.

 

[Mackaydon]

As for silver, I'll stay in equities (stocks) and wait silver to break out of its five years (and counting) rut.
Don....

 

[jim4silver]

Probably every market is manipulated to some extent, but silver did go from about $5 to $50 from early 2000's to 2011. So then it must be possible that those rigging the market like it to go up at some point?

What's interesting about the run up in silver in 2011, the average joe was not stacking. There were plenty of stackers stacking, but not people who otherwise had no interest in PMs. I believe that the next time we have a bull market in effect, you will see more participation by average folks. That would require lots of social media hype about silver and gold for that to happen and to get the non silver bugs to believe that silver was the thing to buy. If we ever got that type of buying the retail supply would dry up real fast.

I saw back a few years ago when silver dropped to the low $20s (as if fell from $50) that the large stores I deal with were deluged with frenzied silver buying and people were paying and waiting up to 3 weeks for their generic silver to come in for pickup. I had never seen that type of buying even during the run up to $50 in 2011.

It will be a while till that type of frenzied buying happens again probably, and it won't take place until silver is much higher in price than where we are now. Most people won't buy something when it's cheap (unpopular) but wait until it gets pricier (more popular).

Jim

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Yep there's so much different info out there and they mostly disagree with each other hehe. Just hafta do what feels right to you I guess because we will eventually see what happens but more often than not history repeats itself. We will either be crying or high fiving!

 

[TheCoinKid]

Most people won't buy something when it's cheap (unpopular) but wait until it gets pricier (more popular).
Jim

Spot on. In the same vein, when you see unusually high retail investor demand, a top is usually near. The fortunes are made by those who buy at the bottom (or, as you say, when it's unpopular).

It has been said that in a perfectly rationale market, the price of PMs move in tandem with other economic indicators (the stock market, for one), i.e., higher PM prices should occur during better economic times. It's the irrational buying in bad economic times (flight to safety), and the inevitable unwinding of those irrational purchases during good times, that causes those relationships to most often vary. To put it more simply, the PM market usually performs in an irrational manner.

I think there's a thread of truth that.

TCK