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Thread: US Dollar vs. gold and silver

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  1. #16
    us
    Mar 2009
    A Place In Heaven
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    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Hi! Ya! Jim. Happy New Year, as for the PM's I just don't see anything happening price wise, just up and down.
    jim4silver likes this.

  2. #17
    us
    Jan 2016
    South of Gunnison, Gold Basin
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    Weird how everything has been rising at the same time. Usually its opposite.

  3. #18

    Apr 2008
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    Looking at the silver chart today Feb 7 it looks like a head and shoulders might be in the making. Technically silver is still riding the upward trend line so all is well. But if tomorrow or later in the week it drops convincingly below say 15.50 to 15.40 or so it will have broken the line in the making since the end of November.

    http://schrts.co/FGjJvPtF



    Looking at the dollar, it appears it might be forming an ascending triangle pattern since mid December. If that turns out to be the case, that is a bullish pattern generally. Since the dollar and gold/silver move inversely generally, it would make sense if silver is forming a head and shoulders (bearish), that the dollar would be forming bullish pattern. But it's still too early to tell either way. But we should know in a few days time I would guess.

    https://stockcharts.com/school/doku....e_continuation

    dollar chart

    http://schrts.co/DJxgHqRT

    If silver is forming a real head and shoulders eventually (we still need the right side of the head to further develop then the right shoulder), then expect the price to go to low $14s if not lower.
    Last edited by jim4silver; Feb 07, 2019 at 09:41 PM.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  4. #19

    Apr 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by jim4silver View Post
    Looking at the silver chart today Feb 7 it looks like a head and shoulders might be in the making. Technically silver is still riding the upward trend line so all is well. But if tomorrow or later in the week it drops convincingly below say 15.50 to 15.40 or so it will have broken the line in the making since the end of November.

    http://schrts.co/FGjJvPtF



    Looking at the dollar, it appears it might be forming an ascending triangle pattern since mid December. If that turns out to be the case, that is a bullish pattern generally. Since the dollar and gold/silver move inversely generally, it would make sense if silver is forming a head and shoulders (bearish), that the dollar would be forming bullish pattern. But it's still too early to tell either way. But we should know in a few days time I would guess.

    https://stockcharts.com/school/doku....e_continuation

    dollar chart

    http://schrts.co/DJxgHqRT

    If silver is forming a real head and shoulders eventually (we still need the right side of the head to further develop then the right shoulder), then expect the price to go to low $14s if not lower.

    Based on the chart action since this last post above, I believe silver is going to drop again, for short the term. I hope I am wrong. If it does drop I think we will be back in the 14's, maybe high 13's for a short time?
    Johnnybravo300 likes this.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  5. #20
    us
    Jan 2016
    South of Gunnison, Gold Basin
    F2
    1,753
    1955 times
    Prospecting
    The market is getting pumped hard by stock buybacks so should keep PM's down for awhile I'd think.
    Strongest and longest recovery ever and everything is just dandy as long as you dont pay attention to leading indicators hehe.
    jim4silver and MotherOfGeeks like this.

  6. #21

    Apr 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by jim4silver View Post
    Based on the chart action since this last post above, I believe silver is going to drop again, for short the term. I hope I am wrong. If it does drop I think we will be back in the 14's, maybe high 13's for a short time?
    Looking at the silver chart it appears that lower is more likely than higher at least in short term. Here is a broken uptrend for silver.

    http://schrts.co/mPSBxqsz
    A2coins likes this.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  7. #22
    us
    Jan 2016
    South of Gunnison, Gold Basin
    F2
    1,753
    1955 times
    Prospecting
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/05/the-...t-stories.html

    Weird to see an article like this from one of the cheerleaders.
    MotherOfGeeks and A2coins like this.

  8. #23

    Apr 2008
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    The silver chart looks pretty bad. I believe there is a good chance we will break below $15 this week. Probably be a big drop/slam when it happens. I hope I am wrong.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  9. #24

    Apr 2008
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    Silver chart and COT are still looking bearish. I believe in the coming week(s) we will get to low 14 maybe fall into 13s. Usually on drops the local coin stores get buyers. The local stores are seeing far more sellers than buyers from what I've been told. I saw it myself the other day at one store. I was the only one buying and had 5 or so other parties there selling silver and gold.

    Buy high, sell low....
    Davers likes this.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  10. #25
    us
    Jan 2016
    South of Gunnison, Gold Basin
    F2
    1,753
    1955 times
    Prospecting
    Youd have to be pretty hard up to sell right now. Either that or they bought at $4.

  11. #26

    Apr 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnnybravo300 View Post
    Youd have to be pretty hard up to sell right now. Either that or they bought at $4.
    Human psychology can be a funny thing. Some of these sellers bought for the wrong reasons (they thought silver was going to $100 really fast, etc) and now might believe silver is going to $5 and they just want to get some of their money back. Some probably need the cash too of course.

    Some investors get bored and want action, so seeing silver stagnate for a few years and then drop, rinse and repeat, they want the cash to do something else, maybe buy bitcoin or penny stocks, etc.?

    I have been buying cool stuff cheap when it is available. Lately I've picked up some nice foreign bullion for $18-$20 per oz (fancy coins in boxes with COA, etc). Many of these coins retail $40+, some higher, some only a few bucks more than what I pay.

    I know my dealers pay these folks melt or less (if sterling coins) so they are happy to flip the coins to me for a few bucks over (but I usually am expected to buy the entire lot- I can't just cherry pick the best stuff). None of the dealers I buy from sell on ebay, which is great for me.

    I am surprised to see the level of cool stuff being dumped at these low prices. That tells me we might be getting closer to a bottom if collectors are selling their stashes even when prices are down. I don't think all of these sellers are desperate for cash.

    I think a lot of folks are so used to low silver prices these days, that they don't care to wait any longer hoping for the big price gains.
    Last edited by jim4silver; May 07, 2019 at 03:14 PM.
    Davers likes this.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  12. #27

    Apr 2008
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    We are at an important juncture in silver price short term right now. If you look at the chart in the link, you can trace a downtrend line of high points that starts in late February 2019, and cascades downward till today. That line will be clearly broken in an upward direction if silver closes at $14.80ish tomorrow or Tuesday (markets closed Monday). If it does that, I believe silver will go to $15.30ish (which is the approx. 50% retracement point since Feb downturn), and from there who knows?

    If we keep dropping and don't break that downtrend line any time soon, I would say low $14s maybe $13s is in the cards in before July. Seasonally, June and most of July are weak for gold and silver. That combined with the recent strength in the downward momentum in silver, I think we will see lower prices assuming no WW3, etc breaking out.


    http://schrts.co/sGFYrfez
    Last edited by jim4silver; May 23, 2019 at 04:36 PM.
    Davers likes this.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  13. #28

    Apr 2008
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    It looks like silver is either right at, or has barely broken the trend line (the line that connects the high points from Feb 2019 to now). And we have had four trading days of rising prices and corresponding rising volume.

    Those two things are bullish for sure. But I can't help but still feel this is a "head fake" of some kind. The COT numbers are great in silver but in gold the commercials are still adding tons of short positions.

    This will be fun to watch in the coming weeks. Either my stack gets more valuable or I buy more at the lowest prices I've seen in a bit.

    http://schrts.co/ZHWCeStg
    Davers likes this.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  14. #29
    us
    Old Tom Cat.

    Jan 2013
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    Great info as usual Jim4silver.

    I may grab an ounce or 2 this week but knowing myself ill probably get 'Common' 90% Merc's or Quarters.

    Tho I do need to pay off my Slabbed XF Seated Liberty Half. Decisions X 1,000.
    Gd Jim
    jim4silver likes this.
    As I am finding , In life we begin having the Blissful happiness & the Wonder & innocence of a Child, then fall Quickly, then spend the rest of our lives trying to reach that point where we began ,through Pleasure , Fame, & Materials but Only 'Through true faith in Jesus , can we find Prefect Happiness or true Meaning in our Short lives on this Beautiful Earth filled with both the Light of Pure goodness & The Darkness of Pure Evil. D.

    That Said, I judge No Man.
    Davers

  15. #30

    Apr 2008
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    Even though silver dropped big today, today's low is still above the downtrend line formed by the recent high points from approx. late Feb to last week. And today's close is right at the 50% retracement point from the most recent high/low points. So really silver could just as easily go up tomorrow as drop.

    Commercials went back very short last week in silver and continued increasing shorts in gold. So I am guessing lower short term.

    PS I don't really mess with stocks but using my beginner level charting I kind of think stocks might be heading higher. Check out this weekly chart. You can see the resistance and three attempts to breach that failed. It looks somewhat like an ascending triangle which is normally bullish (but this one here is definitely not perfect in shape- if we could delete the December action it would be closer to ascending triangle).

    Unless WW3 or a large bank fails, etc, I'm betting the price goes up this summer.

    http://schrts.co/MWyawhAE
    Last edited by jim4silver; Jun 10, 2019 at 05:41 PM.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

 

 
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