US Dollar vs. gold and silver

[jim4silver]

Since gold and the dollar tend to trade inversely (and silver mostly follows golds direction), I thought a look at the recent dollar action would shed some light on gold/silver's possible future?

Here is the US dollar daily chart in the link below. It updates constantly, but at this moment looks to me like the August high was the top of the head in a head and shoulders pattern (which is normally bearish), and now the price looks to drop, how much I don't know?

PS There is a recent gap that will need to fill first.

http://schrts.co/8crKwr

 

Amazon Forum Fav 👍

Diving for Pleasure and Treasure - Grab it through Amazon!

[jim4silver]

Gap is now filled. Where will it go from here?

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Hopefully it stays where it's at for a few more years! I gotta fill my safe!

 

[Red James Cash]

The price of precious metals always remains the same,it's the toilet paper Fiat garbage currency that goes up and down.

 

[A2coins]

Aint that the truth

 

[jim4silver]

It looks like the silver price closed right at one of the trendlines (upward) that has been in the making since late November. If we drop through that line (probably would be Monday or Tuesday if we do), my head and shoulders guess will be right and silver could fall into the low $14s or maybe lower?

http://schrts.co/UdWtuNXH

 

[Megalodon]

Have you found a correlation between PM prices and some index of the market? (S&P or Dow or Nasdaq or?) And if so, has that correlation produced a higher or lower correlation coefficient than that between the dollar and PM? If buying PM is a hedge against market declines, I'd want to know how well it actually performs as a hedge.

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Those low $14 days can come back any day. I'd take some more of that before its done.
I heard there could be a bullion shortage with Elemetal and Republic Metals closing down. The other private mints aren't keeping up with demand and could result in premiums on generics haha. There doesn't seem to be any other mints popping up anytime soon.
That's just funny to think about in itself about and another reason to stack more junk silver. Woop woop!

 

[jim4silver]

Those low $14 days can come back any day. I'd take some more of that before its done.
I heard there could be a bullion shortage with Elemetal and Republic Metals closing down. The other private mints aren't keeping up with demand and could result in premiums on generics haha. There doesn't seem to be any other mints popping up anytime soon.
That's just funny to think about in itself about and another reason to stack more junk silver. Woop woop!

I don't believe there is any generic silver shortage that will take place. Perhaps for a short time some specific items might not be available. All the big online sites have generic for sale, some actually on sale right now. I saw one with less than a buck premium per ounce for sale. That is cheap. Locally the really nice new generic is just over a buck retail.

Demand is too low in general to be causing any supply issues, even with those two private mints shutting down. Sunshine Mint, Silvertowne, Apmex, etc, are still cranking the stuff out. If one of them shuts down and demand goes way up maybe then a shortage. If there is any real shortage, it would just be temporary and the slack will be picked up by other mints in time.

Just to get an idea on wholesale pricing, check out this site. I am using them just as an example of pricing, I've never done business with them. One of my smaller local dealers used to sell them stuff in the past that's how I heard of them. The prices listed are for dealers only buying and selling to them. Their dealer sheet does show they are out of some generic silver items btw.

Dealer Information

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Yeah higher premiums on generics kind of made me chuckle. I cant really see that flying very far.

I'm hoping they can find a way to keep the bubbles inflated for 8 or 10 years more and maybe we can skip this next downturn, and wind the spring tighter!

 

[The Aluminum Monster]

Those low $14 days can come back any day. I'd take some more of that before its done.
I heard there could be a bullion shortage with Elemetal and Republic Metals closing down. The other private mints aren't keeping up with demand and could result in premiums on generics haha. There doesn't seem to be any other mints popping up anytime soon.
That's just funny to think about in itself about and another reason to stack more junk silver. Woop woop!

This annoys me solely for the reason that all my kilo bars of silver are from Republic and the uniformity was eye pleasing. This is going to disrupt my stacker OCD.

 

[jim4silver]

The chart for silver is still looking good thanks to today's close. Who knows what next week holds?

http://schrts.co/HbwpcmIw

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Gold over $1300 what the heck? I turn my head for one day and this happens.
And I also learned the shutdown is over, that didnt turn out to be much in the end haha. Turned out uneventful and all that drama for nothing. At least I wont have to hear about it 24/7 on the radio anymore!

 

[Johnnybravo300]

When the numbers come out from those closed govt agencies, I wonder if it will change anything?

 

[jim4silver]

When the numbers come out from those closed govt agencies, I wonder if it will change anything?

I don't think the COT numbers really seem to matter. I have followed them for a few years and the pundits calls based upon them. They seem to say that whatever the Commercials are doing is the right choice, that they are the "smart money" and will be correct. However, from what I've seen in the silver market at least, the Large Specs seem to be more correct than the Commercials but I could be wrong.

 

[Marchas45]

Hi! Ya! Jim. Happy New Year, as for the PM's I just don't see anything happening price wise, just up and down.

 

[Johnnybravo300]

Weird how everything has been rising at the same time. Usually its opposite.

 

[jim4silver]

Looking at the silver chart today Feb 7 it looks like a head and shoulders might be in the making. Technically silver is still riding the upward trend line so all is well. But if tomorrow or later in the week it drops convincingly below say 15.50 to 15.40 or so it will have broken the line in the making since the end of November.

http://schrts.co/FGjJvPtF


Looking at the dollar, it appears it might be forming an ascending triangle pattern since mid December. If that turns out to be the case, that is a bullish pattern generally. Since the dollar and gold/silver move inversely generally, it would make sense if silver is forming a head and shoulders (bearish), that the dollar would be forming bullish pattern. But it's still too early to tell either way. But we should know in a few days time I would guess.

https://stockcharts.com/school/doku...hart_patterns:ascending_triangle_continuation

dollar chart

http://schrts.co/DJxgHqRT

If silver is forming a real head and shoulders eventually (we still need the right side of the head to further develop then the right shoulder), then expect the price to go to low $14s if not lower.

 

[jim4silver]

Looking at the silver chart today Feb 7 it looks like a head and shoulders might be in the making. Technically silver is still riding the upward trend line so all is well. But if tomorrow or later in the week it drops convincingly below say 15.50 to 15.40 or so it will have broken the line in the making since the end of November.

http://schrts.co/FGjJvPtF


Looking at the dollar, it appears it might be forming an ascending triangle pattern since mid December. If that turns out to be the case, that is a bullish pattern generally. Since the dollar and gold/silver move inversely generally, it would make sense if silver is forming a head and shoulders (bearish), that the dollar would be forming bullish pattern. But it's still too early to tell either way. But we should know in a few days time I would guess.

https://stockcharts.com/school/doku...hart_patterns:ascending_triangle_continuation

dollar chart

http://schrts.co/DJxgHqRT

If silver is forming a real head and shoulders eventually (we still need the right side of the head to further develop then the right shoulder), then expect the price to go to low $14s if not lower.

Based on the chart action since this last post above, I believe silver is going to drop again, for short the term. I hope I am wrong. If it does drop I think we will be back in the 14's, maybe high 13's for a short time?

 

[Johnnybravo300]

The market is getting pumped hard by stock buybacks so should keep PM's down for awhile I'd think.
Strongest and longest recovery ever and everything is just dandy as long as you dont pay attention to leading indicators hehe.