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Thread: US Dollar vs. gold and silver

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  1. #1

    Apr 2008
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    US Dollar vs. gold and silver

    Since gold and the dollar tend to trade inversely (and silver mostly follows golds direction), I thought a look at the recent dollar action would shed some light on gold/silver's possible future?

    Here is the US dollar daily chart in the link below. It updates constantly, but at this moment looks to me like the August high was the top of the head in a head and shoulders pattern (which is normally bearish), and now the price looks to drop, how much I don't know?

    PS There is a recent gap that will need to fill first.

    http://schrts.co/8crKwr
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    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  2. #2

    Apr 2008
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    Gap is now filled. Where will it go from here?
    A2coins likes this.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  3. #3
    us
    Jan 2016
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    Hopefully it stays where it's at for a few more years! I gotta fill my safe!
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  4. #4
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    The price of precious metals always remains the same,it's the toilet paper Fiat garbage currency that goes up and down.

  5. #5
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  6. #6

    Apr 2008
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    It looks like the silver price closed right at one of the trendlines (upward) that has been in the making since late November. If we drop through that line (probably would be Monday or Tuesday if we do), my head and shoulders guess will be right and silver could fall into the low $14s or maybe lower?

    http://schrts.co/UdWtuNXH
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  7. #7
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    Have you found a correlation between PM prices and some index of the market? (S&P or Dow or Nasdaq or?) And if so, has that correlation produced a higher or lower correlation coefficient than that between the dollar and PM? If buying PM is a hedge against market declines, I'd want to know how well it actually performs as a hedge.


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  8. #8
    us
    Jan 2016
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    Prospecting
    Those low $14 days can come back any day. I'd take some more of that before its done.
    I heard there could be a bullion shortage with Elemetal and Republic Metals closing down. The other private mints aren't keeping up with demand and could result in premiums on generics haha. There doesn't seem to be any other mints popping up anytime soon.
    That's just funny to think about in itself about and another reason to stack more junk silver. Woop woop!

  9. #9

    Apr 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnnybravo300 View Post
    Those low $14 days can come back any day. I'd take some more of that before its done.
    I heard there could be a bullion shortage with Elemetal and Republic Metals closing down. The other private mints aren't keeping up with demand and could result in premiums on generics haha. There doesn't seem to be any other mints popping up anytime soon.
    That's just funny to think about in itself about and another reason to stack more junk silver. Woop woop!

    I don't believe there is any generic silver shortage that will take place. Perhaps for a short time some specific items might not be available. All the big online sites have generic for sale, some actually on sale right now. I saw one with less than a buck premium per ounce for sale. That is cheap. Locally the really nice new generic is just over a buck retail.

    Demand is too low in general to be causing any supply issues, even with those two private mints shutting down. Sunshine Mint, Silvertowne, Apmex, etc, are still cranking the stuff out. If one of them shuts down and demand goes way up maybe then a shortage. If there is any real shortage, it would just be temporary and the slack will be picked up by other mints in time.

    Just to get an idea on wholesale pricing, check out this site. I am using them just as an example of pricing, I've never done business with them. One of my smaller local dealers used to sell them stuff in the past that's how I heard of them. The prices listed are for dealers only buying and selling to them. Their dealer sheet does show they are out of some generic silver items btw.

    Dealer Information
    Last edited by jim4silver; Jan 22, 2019 at 04:33 PM.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  10. #10
    us
    Jan 2016
    South of Gunnison, Gold Basin
    F2
    1,753
    1956 times
    Prospecting
    Yeah higher premiums on generics kind of made me chuckle. I cant really see that flying very far.

    I'm hoping they can find a way to keep the bubbles inflated for 8 or 10 years more and maybe we can skip this next downturn, and wind the spring tighter!
    Last edited by Johnnybravo300; Jan 24, 2019 at 01:17 PM.

  11. #11
    Charter Member
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    Mar 2015
    New Bedford, MA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnnybravo300 View Post
    Those low $14 days can come back any day. I'd take some more of that before its done.
    I heard there could be a bullion shortage with Elemetal and Republic Metals closing down. The other private mints aren't keeping up with demand and could result in premiums on generics haha. There doesn't seem to be any other mints popping up anytime soon.
    That's just funny to think about in itself about and another reason to stack more junk silver. Woop woop!
    This annoys me solely for the reason that all my kilo bars of silver are from Republic and the uniformity was eye pleasing. This is going to disrupt my stacker OCD.

  12. #12

    Apr 2008
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    444 times
    The chart for silver is still looking good thanks to today's close. Who knows what next week holds?

    http://schrts.co/HbwpcmIw
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

  13. #13
    us
    Jan 2016
    South of Gunnison, Gold Basin
    F2
    1,753
    1956 times
    Prospecting
    Gold over $1300 what the heck? I turn my head for one day and this happens.
    And I also learned the shutdown is over, that didnt turn out to be much in the end haha. Turned out uneventful and all that drama for nothing. At least I wont have to hear about it 24/7 on the radio anymore!

  14. #14
    us
    Jan 2016
    South of Gunnison, Gold Basin
    F2
    1,753
    1956 times
    Prospecting
    When the numbers come out from those closed govt agencies, I wonder if it will change anything?

  15. #15

    Apr 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnnybravo300 View Post
    When the numbers come out from those closed govt agencies, I wonder if it will change anything?
    I don't think the COT numbers really seem to matter. I have followed them for a few years and the pundits calls based upon them. They seem to say that whatever the Commercials are doing is the right choice, that they are the "smart money" and will be correct. However, from what I've seen in the silver market at least, the Large Specs seem to be more correct than the Commercials but I could be wrong.
    R.I.P. Rich Hartford

 

 
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