Hurricane Patterns and Shipwrecks

[pepper]

Shipwrecks are usually caused or related directly to weather patterns
during a one year cycle. This cycle can be repeated throughout
history at any given interval in 1, 10 or 20 year paterns such as the
circumstances that causes them such as El Nino or La Nino.

When studying certain wreck events such as the 1715 or the 1733
fleet wrecks and noting the time period one may be able to recreate
the direction of the hurricane at that given time period such as the
month and be able to recreate what the possible weather pattern was
at that time of year for hurricanes and what direction the hurricane
came and where it was going.

Therefore, being able to determine the intended direction of the fleet,
where the weather or hurricane was coming from at that time of year,
the scatter pattern of the lead galleon, the ships in between and the
trailing galleon may be a good indication of where to look for the
rest of the fleet or a ship that went down and where the currents
and wind may have taken it based on hurricane wind direction.

I remember Cornelius in a previous thread was trying to express
where the location of ships in a storm that went down may be located
under these circumstances.

Here's a link to a site with an mpeg for the 27 tropical storms and
hurricanes during the year 2005 that can give you insite to this.

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003300/a003354/

All the best!

Pepper

 

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[rgecy]

Pepper,

I think that most information in regards to these storms has been obtained through archaival research and first hand accounts of fleet position, wind direction, etc. Take the 1715 fleet for example. They were able to determine the most likely track of the storm by the documented accounts from survivors.

I understand what you are expressing, but it seems to me that these storms have a mind of their own. So many factors go into predicting where a storm will go today, I can only imagine it must be 1000 times harder to predict what a storm did 300 years ago without know all the factors. Ie. High pressure systems, fronts, upper atmospheric wind speeds and direction, sea surface temps, etc.

Not to mention if a fleet was caught on the east side, the wreckage would be completely different than on the west side since the winds are moving in oposite directions. And the same for North or South. Basically, you would still have to have first hand accounts of position and wind directions.

Are you trying to determine how a ship wrecked based on the year and season? And from that give a general direction the storm would have come from to determine a scatter trail?

Robert

 

[pepper]

Robert,

I'm not trying to determine how a ship wrecked based on a year but
am stating that in the course of yearly cycles like that of the 27 storms
it represents a very good diagram of where storms develope during
the course of a year and where they will most likely develope at that
time of the year and where they are going.

This corresponds directly to the month of the birth of the storm which is
consistant with the conditions that created it and what the intensity
factor may be related directly to warm water (month) high pressure
(direction or and or wind shear) fronts (pressure systems " high or low") and upper atmospheric wind speeds controlling these pressure systems.

I am not trying to determine how a ship wrecked based on the year and
conditions but under what conditions it wrecked such as the time of year,
the direction it was going and from what direction it was intercepted by
the weather conditions most probable for that time of year based on
the location of the wreck and scatter pattern (anchor, etc).

Pepper

 

[rgecy]

I think I understand! Back to the assumptions, as was discussed about the Jupiter wreck, that because it sank in January, it was most likely a nor-easter that caused her demise. And the scatter pattern supports this.

A nor easter in the dead of winter is a no brainer. In July, Aug, Sept, most likely a hurricane. But with a hurricane, determining anything beyond that would be difficult without first hand accounts of position and wind directions. etc.

I guess another example relating back to the 1715 fleet is that the winds started out the north. The flotilla was on the north-west side of the storm and was driven backwards. As the hurricane started to overtake them it actually moved inland and the resulting scatter pattern is actually in a north-westerly direction, indicating the winds were out of the south-east when the ships sank. This could certainly be just the opposite if the ships had been on the east side of the storm and the hurricane had moved across Florida from the Gulf side.

I hope I am not complicating the subject, I am just trying to understand how this data can be used.

Robert

 

[Peg Leg]

Would it be possible to study the scatter patern of the ships from the 1715 fleet and arrive at some conclusion as to what direction the storm came from.
Since small objects are scattered all over the bottom why can you not do research on the cannons that have not been moved all over the bottom of the ocean and arrive at a conclusion that will provide an answer.
If you could develope a computer program you could then have all the information needed to located other ships of the 1715 fleet and figure out the best place to search.
Peg Leg

 

[mad4wrecks]

Robert already gave us a pretty good scenario as to from what direction the hurricane overtook the 715 fleet and how the shipwrecks were scattered.

Eyewitness accounts (survivors) of the hurricane, and accounts from citizens of St Augustine and the Ais indians about where wreckage was found on the beach also provide some pretty good clues about where the missing 1715 wrecks might be found.

I am fairly certain that confirmation will be made on one off north Vero Beach within a year or two. The Cape Canaveral, Sattelite Beach, north Melbourne area is another good place to look.

 

[Peg Leg]

I AGREE 100%
PEG

 

[Voldbjerg]

Heres another thought. Study logbooks from other ships in the area at the same time. Any captain would log weather observations if a hurricane was passing by. Maybe towns and settlement did write down observations too.

Maybe someone have all ready done this. Or it would be a great thesis if you want to combine a study of history with meteorology(a natural combination at all universities )

/V

 

[wreckdiver1715]

I am fairly certain that confirmation will be made on one off north Vero Beach within a year or two. The Cape Canaveral, Sattelite Beach, north Melbourne area is another good place to look.

Tom, there is no need for anyone to search that fare north, I would not waste my time searching north of the old Chucks Steak House location.


Tom

 

[Salvor6]

Divers already found scattered artifacts N. of Chucks Steakhouse. During one of my visits to Pat Clyne's office in Key West he showed me the scatter trail of the Atocha. It was going in an arc. From this they could determine the direction of the hurricane winds as they passed the wreck.