A Test for Sandsted

[Carl-NC]

Sandsted, on 12/12 you stated, "I've deliberately tested myself dating coins." Here is a test proposal:

I will mail you 10 coins, sealed in a way that they are tamper-proof, for you to dowse and identify the dates. You may dowse them at your leisure, completely free of the pressures and negativities that prevent you from dowsing in the presence of doubters.

When you are done, mail them back to me, UNOPENED, along with your results. I will then mail the coins back to you, UNOPENED, for you to unseal and verify the results for yourself.

Because this proposed test is not conducted in my presence, and there are potential security holes, I will not offer the $25,000 prize for this. However, if you are successful, I am reasonably confident that a very similar protocol could be used in an application to Randi's challenge.

To proceed, you need to tell me any and all things that would block your ability to dowse the dates. I.e., paper, ink, aluminum foil, plastics, duct tape, lead, etc. Also any concerns you have about the test proposal, suggested changes, whatever. Admittingly, I have not written a detailed protocol, because I did not want to spend the time doing so until you agreed to proceed.

I did an almost identical test with a fellow in Arizona about 7 years ago. He had some sort of powder (a grey mineral, have no idea what) that he said he was VERY sensitive to, and could easily dowse with 100% success. He mailed me a small bag of the powder, and I prepared 12 sealed & numbered packets that were randomly given either his powder, or baking flour. His results were slightly worse than guessing.

Because this test is not for the prize, I will let you decide whether to release the test results, as I have done with other informal testing. However, in light of all the forum discussions, I think that would disappoint some other people. If you prefer discretion, then we can proceed via email, otherwise we can do it here.

- Carl

 

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[ClonedSIM]

Great thinking on this one, Carl. Best of luck!

 

[Sandsted]

I have dated coins a couple of times...this is hard to do, but one time I sat down and dated three pennies in a row and was very excited to see that this really works (this is when I was very new to dowsing).

It is difficult to do and I think it would probably even be easier to dowse on boards in your presence...but sure if all you have to do is mail me some coins I don't see anything to loose and it sounds quite convenient.

Concerning discretion of the test I don't really care...but I don't think this kind of thing will really work, but there's nothing to loose so send a few pennies.

"However, in light of all the forum discussions, I think that would disappoint some other people. If you prefer discretion, then we can proceed via email, otherwise we can do it here."

I'd rather converse about the experiment outside of this forum.

You can just duct tape them, I've never tried this but I don't think it would have any effect. I just found some pennies lying face down and took them and dated them.

If the pennies were from 1960-2000 this would be easiest. The sensor board I have for dating specimens is activated (if my memory serves me correctly) for every year from 1960-2000. Other dates are on there and they do work but these dates are most accurate.

Also, I don't claim that dating coins is real accurate, many times I'd get a reaction around 1975-1978 and then choose 76 and it was actually 74, 78, 79...or something like this...but...you can decide what you consider to be a successful date.

Besides that I don't think it matters. I suppose one could untape the coins too easily if they were just in duct tape. You can wrape them in what ever you like. If anything were to disrupt the dowsing (if anything can...I'm not sure) I wouldn't have them locked in 1/4 inch lead boxes...but really I don't believe anything should disrupt it. I would refrain from enclosing them in any metal, but I have no reason to suspect this.

Anyway, send me an email and I'll send you my address.

 

[ClonedSIM]

Alright! Way to go Sandy!!

Will any of the results be shared here?

 

[xupz]

Carl don't forget you should control for weight if you even use pennies. The older copper pennies are approx 3.1g vs newer pennies at 2.5g. It doesn't give an advantage as far as picking the actual date, but should everything balance out with whatever you package them in, a scale will indicate the ~.6 gram difference and allow them to at least narrow down the date selections from 60->(82) and (82)->00 which will increase the probability from say 1/40 to 1/22 (82 being the mixed year) which would yield biased results. You could also break them down into smaller frequency categories if he thinks he has a better chance at approximating the dates better than random then pinpointing the dates exactly. Perhaps even decide on a interval size for ranging the dates. I wouldn't leave a single plausible excuse while designing around their input.

 

[Sandsted]

Wow xupz...you sure know your pennies. But I'm sure Carl will write up a very detailed and specific protocal so to eliminate the chance of me making an excuse...since dowsers are so obviously prone to this.

 

[Carl-NC]

I have dated coins a couple of times...this is hard to do, but one time I sat down and dated three pennies in a row and was very excited to see that this really works (this is when I was very new to dowsing).

My preference is to use nickels, which is the only American coin whose composition did not change during 1960-2000 (actually, since 1946). However, if you prefer pennies, I'll use pennies.

If nickels, I will obtain one of each date from 1960-1999, for a total of 40 different dates (makes the statistics slightly easier). I will then randomly draw 10 coins, and seal them. If pennies, I will use 1960-1982.

If the pennies were from 1960-2000 this would be easiest. The sensor board I have for dating specimens is activated (if my memory serves me correctly) for every year from 1960-2000. Other dates are on there and they do work but these dates are most accurate.

Just curious... what's a sensor board?

Also, I don't claim that dating coins is real accurate, many times I'd get a reaction around 1975-1978 and then choose 76 and it was actually 74, 78, 79...or something like this...but...you can decide what you consider to be a successful date.

It is not up to me to define your standard of success. You should define the expected accuracy of your dowsing. If you say you can dowse the exact date, then that's what the results will be judged against. If you say you can dowse the date +/- 2 yrs, then that's what the results will be judged against.

Your expected accuracy should be defined before the test, so I urge you to do whatever self-tests you need in order to establish this. Redefining the accuracy after the results are known amounts to working the data, and is not allowed.

I'd rather converse about the experiment outside of this forum.

OK. But I'd at least like to present the protocol on the forum, so folks can see what sort of thinking goes into defining such a test.

Anyway, send me an email and I'll send you my address.

Done.

- Carl

 

[Sandsted]

Well, pennies or nickels would work...I've never done anything with nickels this is just why I said pennies. I don't think it would matter. I'd say for accuracy plus or minus 5 or 4 years actually. But if you'd like to bring the standard up to + or - 2 yrs I don't really care...I'll do whatever you want.

Believe when I tell you I'm not going to weigh the coins to narrow down the years of choice, prior to this I didn't even know that the sizes have ever really changed.

 

[Carl-NC]

Well, pennies or nickels would work...I've never done anything with nickels this is just why I said pennies. I don't think it would matter. I'd say for accuracy plus or minus 5 or 4 years actually. But if you'd like to bring the standard up to + or - 2 yrs I don't really care...I'll do whatever you want.

This is the point that has been stated over and over and over in the Randi thread... it's not what I want, it's what you want. You need to define the parameters of the test, not me.

Pennies it be.

- Carl

 

[Sandsted]

Well, what do you consider a success? Let's go + or - 2 yrs then. You can use nickels if you really want...I don't really care.

The picture below is a few sensor boards. They're just a tool for identifying things.

 

[Carl-NC]

Statistics challenge

OK, here's the statistics challenge...

There are 10 coins, randomly drawn from a batch of 40 coins, each with a different date from 1960 to 1999. The date on each coin is randomly guessed, knowing that it can be in the given date range and there are no duplicate dates.

What are the odds that 6 (or more) guesses will fall within +/- 3 years (or less) of the actual dates?

Warning: this is a very difficult problem, so here are a couple of simpler problems...

What are the odds that 6 (or more) guesses will be EXACT?

What are the odds that 1 guess will be within +/- 3 years?

- Carl

(C'mon Art, you can do these last two.)

 

[Real de Tayopa Tropical Tramp]

HI Sandsted,. If you failed to get a single one correct that would be a negative way of provng that you are 100%
correct in your ablity.

Carl about my post #88

Tropical Tramp

 

[Jean310]

Been reading about this challenge for a while. The math involved is interesting. Can anyone join in with an answer?

 

[Jean310]

Re: Statistics challenge

OK, here's the statistics challenge...

There are 10 coins, randomly drawn from a batch of 40 coins, each with a different date from 1960 to 1999. The date on each coin is randomly guessed, knowing that it can be in the given date range and there are no duplicate dates.

What are the odds that 6 (or more) guesses will fall within +/- 3 years (or less) of the actual dates?

Warning: this is a very difficult problem, so here are a couple of simpler problems...

What are the odds that 6 (or more) guesses will be EXACT?

What are the odds that 1 guess will be within +/- 3 years?

- Carl

(C'mon Art, you can do these last two.)

Seems like this would be a problem involving 10 trials, and each trial could have 40 possible outcomes, IF the subject were not told if they were correct or wrong after each guess (trial).

If the subject doing the guessing were told if they were correct or wrong after each trial, then the problem would be a little different. For instance, say the subject guessed (dowsed) the first coin correctly. Then, the second trial would only involve 39 possible outcomes.

Which way would the trials be conducted? With or without feedback after each trial?

Jean

 

[ClonedSIM]

HI Sandsted,. If you failed to get a single one correct that would be a negative way of provng that you are 100%
correct in your ablity.

Carl about my post #88

Tropical Tramp

Ummmm, so you're saying that Sandy would prove he has no ability to date coins?

 

[aarthrj3811]

Hey Jean 310...Every one of these guys are just giving us random guesses as to what Randi's odds are. Here they are from Randi himself
http://www.skepticalinvestigations.org/exam/Dace_amazing3.htm

Randi stated to me that a preliminary test would have to yield a probability of one in a thousand that the results were due to chance. After passing the preliminary, the investigator could commence with the formal test, which would have to yield a probability against chance of one in a million.

Why do the odds chance of someone pass the pre-test...Art

 

[ClonedSIM]

Hey Jean 310...Every one of these guys are just giving us random guesses as to what Randi's odds are. Here they are from Randi himself
http://www.skepticalinvestigations.org/exam/Dace_amazing3.htm

Randi stated to me that a preliminary test would have to yield a probability of one in a thousand that the results were due to chance. After passing the preliminary, the investigator could commence with the formal test, which would have to yield a probability against chance of one in a million.

Why do the odds chance of someone pass the pre-test...Art

Hey Art. Nothing in your response has anythng to do with Jean's question. Still not bothering to read the posts?

 

[Sandsted]

I will not know the correct date after each trial. I will attempt to date each coin, right down my findings and send them back to Carl.

He'll tell me the dates.

 

[ClonedSIM]

I will not know the correct date after each trial. I will attempt to date each coin, right down my findings and send them back to Carl.

He'll tell me the dates.

Take a lesson, Art. Here's the proper response to Jean's question. Thanks, Sandy!

 

[Jean310]

Why do the odds chance of someone pass the pre-test...Art

I guess that was a question, although it didn't have a (?), and I'm not sure I understand exactly what you are asking.

If you're asking; Why have a Pre-test with Odds of 1:1000? I expect it is to weed out those who can actually demonstrate what it is they claim to be able to do, from those who merely submit a claim but can't come close to performing at the level of their claim. Thus, a lot of time and effort is saved, if there is no real reason to go through with the $1M challenge, and the tougher odds associated with it.

Jean