Dent's Run: The FBI Files

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Forgive me as I've been meaning to get those revelations uncovered in the Atlantic Article back up, but have been so busy and my posts were tediously long winded anyway, so i''ll try to condense them down a bit. (i'll fail at the condensing them part...lol)

For those who haven't read the Atlantic Article " Did the FBI Seal Nine Tons of Civil War Gold? by Chris Heath, I highly recommend it as the author unveiled a lot of previously unknown information. Unlike many other articles, the author also met with Petitioner and interviewed multiple witnesses and even viewed the site. Here's the publicly available link to the article where you get to access 5 free articles: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazin...ania-civil-war-treasure-gold-hunt-fbi/638445/

Revelation 1 in the article was that the dig site was discovered via a psychic, who, to paraphrase the article, was in a trance like state, speaking in several voices and while staring up at the ceiling, brought a pen down upon an atlas map laid out before him and it landed on "Dent's Run" and there he declared you will find the treasure.

This is significant in 2 ways:

1. It shows the site was found, not via historical research, not via old war records, nor via Mint or Bank way bills or theft reports, it was found completely randomly via a DeFacto "pin the tail on the donkey". Even if you believe in psychics, the story upon which he relied to do a psychic reading has been shown by both the FBI and the authors research to be a fictional treasure story first published in 1964.

2. Since it was not found through historical research, but rather completely randomly, if there was gold there, you can't attach it's source to the Civil War or KGC like so many publications have been doing. It'd have to be dug up first and forensically analyzed as there's no way to know where it came from and it could just as well be some mobster who buried it in the 1930's or some rich eccentric who buried it etc etc.
 
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traveller777

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Forgive me as I've been meaning to get those revelations uncovered in the Atlantic Article back up, but have been so busy and my posts were tediously long winded anyway, so i''ll try to condense them down a bit.

For those who haven't read the Atlantic Article " Did the FBI Seal Nine Tons of Civil War Gold? by Chris Heath, I highly recommend it as the author unveiled a lot of previously unknown information. Unlike many other articles, the author also met with Petitioner and interviewed multiple witnesses and even viewed the site. Here's the publicly available link to the article where you get to access 5 free articles: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazin...ania-civil-war-treasure-gold-hunt-fbi/638445/

One of the revelations in the article was that the dig site was discovered via a psychic, who, to paraphrase the article, was in a trance like state, speaking in several voices and while staring up at the ceiling, brought a pen down upon an atlas map laid out before him and it landed on "Dent's Run" and there he declared you will find the treasure.

This is significant in 2 ways:

1. It shows the site was found, not via historical research, not via old war records, nor via Mint or Bank way bills, it was found completely randomly, a random pen to a map. Even if you believe in psychics, the story upon which he did a psychic reading has been shown by both the FBI and the authors research to be a fictional treasure story first published in 1964.

2. Since it was not found through historical research, but rather completely randomly, if there was gold there, you can't attach it's source to the Civil War or KGC like so many publications have been doing. It'd have to be dug up first and forensically analyzed as there's no way to know where it came from and it could just as well be some mobster who buried it in the 1930's or some rich eccentric who buried it etc etc.

Sorry in advance for the simplicity, Godeep, but I like things simple.

So, here you go. Since a psychic revealed the location of the gold to start with, the answer to finding the location of the gold is easy. Ask a psychic where the gold is now. And if a psychic can not do that now, how could one do so to start with?

There, a clear plan of action. Everyone is welcome.
 
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Sorry in advance for the simplicity, Godeep, but I like things simple.

So, here you go. Since a psychic revealed the location of the gold to start with, the answer to finding the location of the gold is easy. Ask a psychic where the gold is now. And if a psychic can not do that now, how could one do so to start with?

There, a clear plan of action. Everyone is welcome.

That's next level deduction, You sir, are hired!

I pay in coffee, black, with your choice of Vanilla or Hazelnut creamer.
 
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I was messaging with BennyV a day or two ago and had epiphany: the revelation that the site was found randomly by putting pen to map, means we can now mathematically figure the odds of finding a buried treasure at Dent's Run in the first place.

SPOILER: With a search area limited to only Pennsylvania, the probability for gold to ever have been buried, let alone randomly located at Dents Run would, at a minimum, be 1 in 1,506,966,612 billion! For reference, you'd be struck by lightning 1,233 times before you'd hit the 1 in 1,506,966,612 billion prize!


Read on:

So two factors we need to determine to calculate the odds of finding a treasure by randomly putting pen to map:

Factor 1: someone having several tons of gold to bury, the will and motive to do so, the actuality of doing so and the end result that they, nor any one else, ever recovered it. This would be incredibly hard to calculate, but some stats geek could do it, by taking the number of people, over a given number of years, with sufficient wealth (acquired either illegally or legally), with the motive and will to bury it, with various confounding variables factored in. Now, i don't have the access, ability or time to figure it, but we know it would be an astronomically low probability for these factors to all come together.

Factor 2. The search area upon which the treasure was buried. For simplicity, i'm even going to narrow the search area to just Pennsylvania, but if a person described above did exist, he actually could have buried it in any a number of bordering states, but lets just limit it to the state of PA to narrow the search area.


Scenario 1: i'm going to assume Factor one was true: Somone did bury gold and they buried it somewhere within the borders of Pennsylvania:

So, PA is 46,055 square miles or 1,506,966,912,000 Trillion Square feet. If we assume a treasure was buried at Dent's run, the location of the treasure lied under a road way section approximately 1000 square feet.

Therefore, with a potential search area of 1,506,966,912,000 Trillion Square feet, divided by a Target area of 1,000 square feet, to randomly bring a pen down on the area your odds of hitting the buried treasure would be 1 in 1,506,966,912 billion!

Scenario 2: With this, we are going to state that factor one wasn't a given and calculate the odds the person even existed to begin with who buried that amount of gold and guess what, i don't have the skill or resources to figure that one. The odds of that would be astronomically high too, and then it has to be applied to Factor two, meaning the odds exponentially multiply above the 1 in 1.5 billion where we assumed gold was buried.

The takeaway: From the get-go, the probability for gold to ever have been buried, let alone randomly located at Dent's run, nears mathematically impossible.
 
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traveller777

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But wait, there's more, I was talking with BennyV a day or two ago and had epiphany: the revelation that the site was found randomly by putting pen to map, means we can now mathematically figure the odds of finding a buried treasure at Dent's Run.

SPOILER: Assuming someone did bury gold at Dent's Run, with a search area limited to Pennsylvania, the odds of randomly bringing a pen down on it would be 1 in 1,506,966,612 billion! For reference, you'd be struck by lightning 1,233 times before you'd hit the 1 in 1,506,966,612 billion prize!


Read on:

So two factors we need to determine to calculate the odds of finding a treasure by randomly putting pen to map:

Factor 1: someone having 9 tons of gold to bury, the will and motive to do so, the actuality of doing so and the end result that they, nor any one else, ever recovered it. This would be incredibly hard to calculate, but some stats geek could do it, by taking the number of people, over a given number of years, with sufficient wealth (acquired either illegally or legally), with the motive and will to bury it, with various confounding variables factored in. Now, i don't have the access, ability or time to figure it, but we know it would be an astronomically low probability for these factors to all come together.

Factor 2. The search area upon which the treasure was buried. For simplicity, i'm even going to narrow the search area to just Pennsylvania, but if a person described above did exist, he actually could have buried it in any a number of bordering states, but lets just limit it to the state of PA to narrow the search area.


Scenario 1: i'm going to assume Factor one was true: Somone did bury gold and the buried it somewhere within the borders of Pennsylvania:

So, PA is 46,055 square miles or 1,506,966,912,000 Quadrillion Square feet. If we assume a treasure was buried at Dent's run, the location of the treasure lied under a road way section approximately 1000 square feet.

Therefore, with a potential search area of 1,506,966,912,000 Quadrillion Square feet, divided by a Target area of 1,000 square feet, to randomly bring a pen down on the area your odds of finding the buried treasure would be 1 in 1,506,966,912 billion!

So, with scenario one assuming someone did bury a treasure, you'd have a 1 in 1,506,966,612 billion chance of randomly bringing your pen down on it.

Scenario 2:
With this, we going to state that factor one wasn't a given and calculate the odds the person even existed to begin with who buried that amount of gold and guess what, i don't have the skill or resources to figure that one. The odds of that would be astronomically hight too, and then it has to be applied to Factor two, meaning the odds exponentially multiply above the 1 in 1.5 billion where we assumed gold was buried.

The takeaway: From the get-go, the probability for gold to ever have been buried, let alone randomly located at Dent's run, was near 0.

Now that is some serious math, or as Jethro said, ciphering. Good job.
 
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Now that is some serious math, or as Jethro said, ciphering. Good job.
As Matt Damon said in The Martain: "We're going to science the ____ out of this!"

The revelation of how the site was found cannot be understated in its significance to the odds any gold was ever at the site to begin with.
 
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Tesorodeoro

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As Matt Damon said in The Martain: "We're going to science the ____ out of this!"

The revelation of how the site was found cannot be understated in its significance to the odds any gold was ever at the site to begin with.
If your going down that road, you need to be more thoughtful about it. 9 tons of gold would reasonably only be buried within some small distance along a road or trail in existence at the time of burial. Mileage of trails at the time x the width to establish search area…also depending on the scale of the map..a pen tip could represent a MUCH larger area than 1 SF.
 
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If your going down that road, you need to be more thoughtful about it. 9 tons of gold would reasonably only be buried within some small distance along a road or trail in existence at the time of burial. Mileage of trails at the time x the width to establish search area…also depending on the scale of the map..a pen tip could represent a MUCH larger area than 1 SF.
True, there's room to debate the exact odds, but we'd only be debating the degree of how astronomically unlikely it would be. The point to be made shouldn't be lost, a pen was just randomly placed on a map and the odds that tons of gold would be buried under where that pen randomly hit, is statistically near 0, if not O if no gold was ever buried there.

I Disagree on the size of the search area, as the method used, a random pen put to a map, means if i give you a pen and tell you to close your eyes and put it on the map, your pen could strike anywhere on the map, irregardless of where the gold may be buried. Your strike area wouldn't be limited to just trails or other areas suitable for gold burial, the whole map would be in play.

Your point on the pen size is accurate however, in so far as depending on the size of the map, a pen head may only be able to make, say 1 million or 100,000 distinct points on the map.

However, that's just the random pen to map part of the odds, we still have to figure the odds that someone of significant wealth, had the means, will and follow through to bury it and said treasure was never recovered, which is no doubt astronomically unlikely too. Both need to be factored: odds of someone burying it + Odds of your pen randomly hitting it = statistically nearing impossible.
 
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True, there's room to debate the exact odds, but we'd only be debating the degree of how astronomically unlikely it would be. The point to be made shouldn't be lost, a pen was just randomly placed on a map and the odds that tons of gold would be buried under where that pen randomly hit, is statistically near 0, if not O if no gold was ever buried there.

I Disagree on the size of the search area, as the method used, a random pen put to a map, means if i give you a pen and tell you to close your eyes and put it on the map, your pen could strike anywhere on the map, irregardless of where the gold may be buried. Your strike area wouldn't be limited to just trails or other areas suitable for gold burial, the whole map would be in play.

Your point on the pen size is accurate however, in so far as depending on the size of the map, a pen head may only be able to make, say 1 million or 100,000 distinct points on the map.

However, that's just the random pen to map part of the odds, we still have to figure the odds that someone of significant wealth, had the means, will and follow through to bury it and said treasure was never recovered, which is no doubt astronomically unlikely too. Both need to be factored: odds of someone burying it + Odds of your pen randomly hitting it = statistically nearing impossible.
I’m wondering why this story about the initial location method wasn’t mentioned in the FBI warrant? Seems to be an important aspect to the whole theory. I wonder if it was left out of the evidence initially provided to the FBI?
 
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I’m wondering why this story about the initial location method wasn’t mentioned in the FBI warrant? Seems to be an important aspect to the whole theory. I wonder if it was left out of the evidence initially provided to the FBI?
Great point. It raises the question, either the FBI was told about the psychic and omitted it from their warrant application or they were never told about the psychic.
 
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Revelation 2 in the article was that Petitioner was on site observing the dig until approximately 400pm. This ups the time on site observing the dig from the previously estimated 1.5 hours to 2.5 hours.

This is significant as some are under the impression, they weren't allowed to observe the dig at all, that they were confined to their car the entire dig and not allowed to observe any of it.
 
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Revelation 3 was that the psychic's son was interviewed by the author and described his psychic father as a charlatan, a fraud, a pathological liar and a narcissist.
 
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Revelation 4 was that on the start of day 2 of the dig, the FBI reportedly told Petitioner to stay in the car as there was water in the hole, something he found suspicious.

A photo of the hole does confirm that was a true statement by the FBI, there was water in the hole.

Tesorodeoro and I did have a discussion about the water in the hole and thought it could probably have been emptied rather quickly by the excavator bucket. Though with the snow starting to melt, maybe their concern wasn't just a water in the hole, but with an overall muddy, wet site, but now i'm speculating about the FBI's intent.

Bottom line, we at least know the FBI wasn't lying about water in the hole as this photo shows (note, i can't absolutely verify this was taken the morning of day 2, it could be from the evening of day 2 when they shut down as the excavator did not move from the late afternoon of day 1 to the morning of day 2 and they erected a safety fence during that time, so if it was from the late afternoon of day 1, the water may have been even deeper by morning):

dentswater3.jpg
 
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Revelation 5 was that the cave was even originally smaller than what the pictures indicate as it was reported that they had removed rocks from the cave by pulling them out in a pan attached to rope to enlarge the passage.

I'll try to bring over the cave evidence i posted in the other thread as i've been meaning to do that. I think this further supports that the cave was just a eroded void under the large boulder that straddled a gulley and in fact, was enlarged even bigger then it naturally was. I don't believe the evidence supports a developed cave system, nor a cave large enough to have ever hosted inhabitants, also there is no evidence of any cave collapse as the boulders roof looks intact in the photos we do have. Dig picture evidence further supports that if gold was under the road, it was buried there, not brought in through any cave network.
 
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Revelation 6 from the article was that the author of the article, researched the Civil war gold stories, and could find no confirmation of them existing before 1965 which corroborates what the FBI's research, that the mint, bank, military, Pinkerton etc could not corroborate the story.

Revelation 7 was the FBI did issue a statement to the author of the article, in brief;

1. Evidence did not support it being a cultural heritage site
2. No gold or treasure was found or removed from the site
3. No nighttime dig took place
4. FBI police patrolled the site all night
 

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Revelation 6 from the article was that the author of the article, researched the Civil war gold stories, and could find no confirmation of them existing before 1965 which corroborates what the FBI's research, that the mint, bank, military, Pinkerton etc could not corroborate the story.

Revelation 7 was the FBI did issue a statement to the author of the article, in brief;

1. Evidence did not support it being a cultural heritage site
2. No gold or treasure was found or removed from the site
3. No nighttime dig took place
4. FBI police patrolled the site all night
Thank you. LOTS of info not previously provided here over the last several years as far as I remember.
 

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