rmptr
Silver Member
The Baltic Dry Index is an indication of global shipping forecasts just the same as the proliferation of pirates off the coast of africa. No shipping, no transfer of manufactured goods from factory to user.
This fellow, Ilargi has been my favorite go-to economist for some time now.
I can find no one with common sense that is able to dispute his observations.
He has gone out on a limb and claimed civil war for china and is moving up his possible date!
Basically, a LOT of hungry, disgruntled people who got a taste of a better life.
I don't quite understand the yen - carry trade, yet am able to clearly see it is a method to create possibly incredible wealth, for yourself, with no substance. These financiers are little more than leeches.
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The Japanese yen rises, and not just a little bit. The result: the Bank of Japan panics, with the government in tow. Ironically, a stronger currency is a death threat for the Japanese economy, and not only because it's built on exports. The demise of the carry trade will mean murder in the financial world around the globe -it has for 20 years just about single-handedly fueled international trade with free credit-, but Japan will of course be hit the hardest, followed closely by the US, which can look forward to fast plunging Japanese purchases of Treasuries and other US debt. Japan interest is at 0.3%, with no option of going lower. Well, yeah, you can try, as the US will, but that can only end in utter disaster. Keep watching.
On top of that, expect Japan to be forced to sell ever more of its huge pile of existing foreign reserves. You ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to credit contraction, we're only just beginning. And when credit contracts, so do exports. With that in mind, it's easy to tick off the victims: the countries that rely most on customers abroad. No. 1 on that list must be China, where 2009 will be a year of ugliness, in many shapes and forms.
My 4-year old prediction of civil war in China by 2015 may have to be moved up yet again. If China’s economic growth goes down to 5%, the economy and the political system are going going gone and out of here. These newly built export economies are just too vulnerable, no resilience.
Put Russia down as a close second, and reserve a space right behind for many developing countries.
Other, more established, export powers to meet the hammer are for instance Germany, Holland, Brazil, Austria, Belgium and Australia. Job losses will be staggering, and I don't see any of these places seriously preparing for it. It’s all blind growth religion.
They should all take a good look at the Baltic Dry Shipping Index, which is approaching 600, from 200.000+ a few months ago. That, my friends, spells bleak and empty shelves coming to a place near you. Around January 20.
<eof>
I hope this information to be of value to all of you, and would be very pleased to read ANY commentary that could refute this gloom & doom financial outlook.
Thank you
rmptr
This fellow, Ilargi has been my favorite go-to economist for some time now.
I can find no one with common sense that is able to dispute his observations.
He has gone out on a limb and claimed civil war for china and is moving up his possible date!
Basically, a LOT of hungry, disgruntled people who got a taste of a better life.
I don't quite understand the yen - carry trade, yet am able to clearly see it is a method to create possibly incredible wealth, for yourself, with no substance. These financiers are little more than leeches.
<clip>
The Japanese yen rises, and not just a little bit. The result: the Bank of Japan panics, with the government in tow. Ironically, a stronger currency is a death threat for the Japanese economy, and not only because it's built on exports. The demise of the carry trade will mean murder in the financial world around the globe -it has for 20 years just about single-handedly fueled international trade with free credit-, but Japan will of course be hit the hardest, followed closely by the US, which can look forward to fast plunging Japanese purchases of Treasuries and other US debt. Japan interest is at 0.3%, with no option of going lower. Well, yeah, you can try, as the US will, but that can only end in utter disaster. Keep watching.
On top of that, expect Japan to be forced to sell ever more of its huge pile of existing foreign reserves. You ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to credit contraction, we're only just beginning. And when credit contracts, so do exports. With that in mind, it's easy to tick off the victims: the countries that rely most on customers abroad. No. 1 on that list must be China, where 2009 will be a year of ugliness, in many shapes and forms.
My 4-year old prediction of civil war in China by 2015 may have to be moved up yet again. If China’s economic growth goes down to 5%, the economy and the political system are going going gone and out of here. These newly built export economies are just too vulnerable, no resilience.
Put Russia down as a close second, and reserve a space right behind for many developing countries.
Other, more established, export powers to meet the hammer are for instance Germany, Holland, Brazil, Austria, Belgium and Australia. Job losses will be staggering, and I don't see any of these places seriously preparing for it. It’s all blind growth religion.
They should all take a good look at the Baltic Dry Shipping Index, which is approaching 600, from 200.000+ a few months ago. That, my friends, spells bleak and empty shelves coming to a place near you. Around January 20.
<eof>
I hope this information to be of value to all of you, and would be very pleased to read ANY commentary that could refute this gloom & doom financial outlook.
Thank you
rmptr
