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Thread: What are the chances??

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  1. #16
    us
    Ryan Quinlan

    Oct 2015
    Michigan
    Minelab X-Terra 30 Garrett Ace 400
    543
    564 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Quote Originally Posted by LooseChange View Post
    What is so unbelievable about it?

    Search ebay for "indian head penny roll" and 21 of the first 25 hits show an indian head ender in a machine roll.
    Change the search to "sold listings" and you see that over 50 have sold in the last 2 days. Apparently people are finding these enders every day and listing them on ebay.

    meh.
    Mhm...and if you want to get a glimpse of how often they ACTUALLY show up, go check out the end roll finds thread. The last Indian ender posted there was by tanz 82 on May 19, 2015.

  2. #17

    Sep 2012
    635
    440 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Quote Originally Posted by LooseChange View Post
    What is so unbelievable about it?

    Search ebay for "indian head penny roll" and 21 of the first 25 hits show an indian head ender in a machine roll.
    Change the search to "sold listings" and you see that over 50 have sold in the last 2 days. Apparently people are finding these enders every day and listing them on ebay.

    meh.
    Quote Originally Posted by Quin View Post
    Mhm...and if you want to get a glimpse of how often they ACTUALLY show up, go check out the end roll finds thread. The last Indian ender posted there was by tanz 82 on May 19, 2015.
    You convinced me, UNBELIEVABLE is accurate.
    enamel7 likes this.

  3. #18
    us
    Mar 2018
    Bryant, WI
    Tracker IV (hobby lobby 40% ;-) )
    318
    749 times
    CRH, hockey cards
    "Chances of finding an Indian Head Penny in a box: roughly 1 in 100
    Chances of finding it on the end of a roll in that box: 1 in 25
    Overall, the estimated likelihood of this happening is 1 in 2500, or 0.04%. This is no doubt a once in a lifetime find!"

    I think your numbers maybe off there.
    If you only have 1 IHP in every 100 boxes, that's 1/250,000 cents to begin with (0.0004%), of which 1/25 (0.04%) are "enders", right? That gives you 0.000016% of an IHP being an ender, if your initial ratio is correct. I'm at about %0.00067 IHP (6/893000), but search bags so don't have to worry about enders. Either way, great find, rather jealous.
    Quin likes this.

  4. #19
    us
    Ryan Quinlan

    Oct 2015
    Michigan
    Minelab X-Terra 30 Garrett Ace 400
    543
    564 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Quote Originally Posted by Rosco53 View Post
    "Chances of finding an Indian Head Penny in a box: roughly 1 in 100
    Chances of finding it on the end of a roll in that box: 1 in 25
    Overall, the estimated likelihood of this happening is 1 in 2500, or 0.04%. This is no doubt a once in a lifetime find!"

    I think your numbers maybe off there.
    If you only have 1 IHP in every 100 boxes, that's 1/250,000 cents to begin with (0.0004%), of which 1/25 (0.04%) are "enders", right? That gives you 0.000016% of an IHP being an ender, if your initial ratio is correct. I'm at about %0.00067 IHP (6/893000), but search bags so don't have to worry about enders. Either way, great find, rather jealous.
    I think you calculated something like “given any penny, what are the chances that it is an Indian head ender”

    I calculated “given any box, what are the chances that it has an Indian head ender in it.” But probability is hard and I may be wrong lol

  5. #20
    us
    Apr 2005
    North Carolina
    Garrett GTI 2500 Garrett AT Gold
    6,037
    2076 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Quote Originally Posted by Quin View Post
    Enamel...I know it’s a good looking coin, but that’s taking things a little too far...
    You took it the wrong way.
    Coincrazed and scottw like this.
    2018 COIN ROLL HUNTING TOTALS!

    Wheats..287
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    war nickels.0
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  6. #21
    us
    Feb 2008
    Great Lakes State
    dirtfishing
    10,506
    2258 times
    silver surfing
    Honorable Mentions (1)
    I’m fond of sending IH culls into the wild, and have spent dozens, mostly ones that I’ve metal detected.
    Coincrazed and Quin like this.
    When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors

  7. #22
    us
    Coincrazed

    Aug 2013
    126
    128 times
    Coin Roll Hunting and Numismatics
    Quote Originally Posted by fistfulladirt View Post
    I’m fond of sending IH culls into the wild, and have spent dozens, mostly ones that I’ve metal detected.
    OMG FFD! YOU SPEND ANCIENT INDIAN HEAD CENTS?? WHAT?? THAT'S CRAZY! NO WONDER PEOPLE ARE FINDING THESE ANCIENT COINS IN CIRCULATION!!!! WOW JULIUS CAESAR COULD'VE HELD THESE COINS! OMG WHAT ARE THE CHANCES?!?!?!?!!
    Last edited by Coincrazed; Jan 12, 2019 at 07:14 AM.
    Greastart likes this.
    "Here's the smell of the blood still: All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand." - William Shakespeare, 'Macbeth'

 

 
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