Do enders predict more silver success? - Page 2
Welcome guest, is this your first visit?
Member
Discoveries
 
Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 16 to 27 of 27
Like Tree28Likes

Thread: Do enders predict more silver success?

« Prev Thread | Next Thread »
  1. #16
    us
    Dec 2009
    AR
    Minelab E-Trac
    2,528
    1050 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    I quit looking for enders as it can only lead to disappointment.

  2. #17
    us
    Jun 2014
    The 2nd State
    750
    931 times
    Coin Roll Hunting
    Quote Originally Posted by Megalodon View Post
    Great point! So if a 10% sample of a box of 1000 produces 3 silver enders, then the remaining 900 coins should produce, on average, 27 silvers for a box total of 30 silver coins. So in this case, the enders overestimated the observed total. I haven't always recorded my enders, so I don't have enough data to look at enders as predictors of total silver/box. You are right that results from many boxes would be necessary. For example, two weeks ago, I got 30 silvers in a box that showed only 1 ender; that would have predicted only 10 silvers - in that case, much less than what was observed. It does seem that seeing enders suggests that the box might be more likely to have additional silver than a box with no enders.
    Out of my 386 boxes from this year so far I am averaging 11.5 silvers per ender. I did 9.8 silvers per ender in 2018 and 11 silvers per ender in 2017. With a big enough sample size in theory there should be 10 silvers per ender based on pure odds.

    If you look at some odd individual boxes I've gotten this year, I've had a box this year with 4 enders but only 13 silvers (instead of 40), a box with 1 ender with 22 (instead of 10). It averages out eventually!
    Megalodon likes this.
    2018 CRH - Updated thru December year end

    $234,862 halves
    ---455 boxes---$5200 CWR---$1420 MWR---$742 loose
    ---90% - 92------90% - 10------90% - 0-----90% - 10-----> 112
    ---40% - 282-----40% - 62------40% - 4------40% - 40----> 388
    Ken-454---Ben-27---WL-18---Barb-1---Total ---> 500 Silvers/98.80 oz.

    Notables: 1905-S Barber ender

    "The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion." -Camus

  3. #18
    us
    May 2018
    Maryland
    White's MXT Tesoro Cibola Tesoro Golden Sabre Plus Garrett ADS Master Hunter 7
    1,530
    2368 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Quote Originally Posted by Avago View Post
    Out of my 386 boxes from this year so far I am averaging 11.5 silvers per ender. I did 9.8 silvers per ender in 2018 and 11 silvers per ender in 2017. With a big enough sample size in theory there should be 10 silvers per ender based on pure odds.

    If you look at some odd individual boxes I've gotten this year, I've had a box this year with 4 enders but only 13 silvers (instead of 40), a box with 1 ender with 22 (instead of 10). It averages out eventually!
    Avago, Thanks for sharing your actual summary data - that is exactly what I was hoping for. I need to do a better job with recording my own results.

    You are doing a lot of boxes (about 12/week?) and must be busy with dumping. I'd like to search more boxes, but spreading out my dumps among all my credit union branches would require a lot of driving! Doing 2-3 boxes per week requires only local dumping.


    Always do right; this will gratify some and astonish the rest.
    - Mark Twain


  4. #19
    Charter Member
    us
    Nov 2012
    Maryland
    XP Deus, Tesoro Cibola
    13,854
    24088 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Banner Finds (7)
    Honorable Mentions (1)
    My banks are getting mad at me.

  5. #20
    us
    May 2018
    Maryland
    White's MXT Tesoro Cibola Tesoro Golden Sabre Plus Garrett ADS Master Hunter 7
    1,530
    2368 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Quote Originally Posted by smokeythecat View Post
    My banks are getting mad at me.
    I realize that I'm making extra work for the tellers when they have to come over to the coin machine and do a bag change because my halves have filled the bag. I've been lucky that they are so gracious with me, telling me not to worry about it and that its part of the job. Some tell me it gets them out from behind the counter to do something else and some like to talk (and so do I!). I try to limit my dumps to reasonable quantities of coin - especially since the coin machines have only 1 bag for halves. For example, this morning, I will dump $300 at one credit union, drive down the street for less than a mile and dump another $300 at another credit union. At the first credit union, I am the only one dumping halves, so this means they only have to change bags for me monthly; the other credit union has another CRH'er dumping halves so the bag fills are more often, but they appreciate that I (unlike some others) make an attempt to limit my quantities. Three other branches of that credit union have contracted with coinstar - which means no bag changes. But those branches are in another county. I'll dump up to $900 in those machines. If I dump at all three branches with coinstars, it means a roundtrip of over 150 miles.

    I learned a lot about CRH etiquette from BenCartright last year. His advice was helpful and appreciated.
    Last edited by Megalodon; Aug 23, 2019 at 07:29 AM.


    Always do right; this will gratify some and astonish the rest.
    - Mark Twain


  6. #21

    May 2017
    Garrett AT Pro
    317
    280 times
    Metal Detecting
    Yes, ditto what Gman00001 said about percentages. Sometimes better, sometimes worse. But hey Meg with that haul, you can afford to buy some “Blue Suede Shoes”!

  7. #22
    us
    Feb 2010
    Missouri
    2,626
    1757 times
    Want to clarify something here: 1 ended doesn’t mean there should be 10 silvers, but 10 silvers does mean on average there should be 1 ended. Silver drives Enders, but Enders doen’t Drive silver. It’s a subtle difference but it matters. If every box you got had 1 silver in it, you’s Find on average an ender every 10th box but you’d never find a 10 silver bow.

    or to summarize - the numbers of silver era is an independent variable. The number of Enders is a dependent variable.
    Megalodon likes this.

  8. #23
    us
    May 2018
    Maryland
    White's MXT Tesoro Cibola Tesoro Golden Sabre Plus Garrett ADS Master Hunter 7
    1,530
    2368 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Twitch, Thank you for that important distinction. I bet math teachers could get their students more interested in the distinction between independent and dependent variables by using that CRH example.


    Always do right; this will gratify some and astonish the rest.
    - Mark Twain


  9. #24
    us
    Jun 2014
    The 2nd State
    750
    931 times
    Coin Roll Hunting
    Quote Originally Posted by Megalodon View Post
    Avago, Thanks for sharing your actual summary data - that is exactly what I was hoping for. I need to do a better job with recording my own results.

    You are doing a lot of boxes (about 12/week?) and must be busy with dumping. I'd like to search more boxes, but spreading out my dumps among all my credit union branches would require a lot of driving! Doing 2-3 boxes per week requires only local dumping.
    Megalodon, yes! This year anyway, averaging 12 boxes per week. Previous years I was doing 8-10ish, but yes, the dumping is crazy! I'm able to float it all on a $4k bankroll with dumping in between pickups.

    I just went back through 2016 and added them all up. 3071 boxes and 275 enders for an average of 11.16. So like 10% fewer enders than statistically should have been present based on pure odds. I don't think the margin of error on my records would be that significant, so I wonder what would cause this?

    A note to Twitch that that's a good distinction to make. I do find that in general though the more enders are in a particular box the more it adheres to the law of averages, which makes sense.
    Megalodon likes this.
    2018 CRH - Updated thru December year end

    $234,862 halves
    ---455 boxes---$5200 CWR---$1420 MWR---$742 loose
    ---90% - 92------90% - 10------90% - 0-----90% - 10-----> 112
    ---40% - 282-----40% - 62------40% - 4------40% - 40----> 388
    Ken-454---Ben-27---WL-18---Barb-1---Total ---> 500 Silvers/98.80 oz.

    Notables: 1905-S Barber ender

    "The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion." -Camus

  10. #25
    us
    May 2018
    Maryland
    White's MXT Tesoro Cibola Tesoro Golden Sabre Plus Garrett ADS Master Hunter 7
    1,530
    2368 times
    All Types Of Treasure Hunting
    Quote Originally Posted by Avago View Post
    Megalodon, yes! This year anyway, averaging 12 boxes per week. Previous years I was doing 8-10ish, but yes, the dumping is crazy! I'm able to float it all on a $4k bankroll with dumping in between pickups.

    I just went back through 2016 and added them all up. 3071 boxes and 275 enders for an average of 11.16. So like 10% fewer enders than statistically should have been present based on pure odds. I don't think the margin of error on my records would be that significant, so I wonder what would cause this?

    A note to Twitch that that's a good distinction to make. I do find that in general though the more enders are in a particular box the more it adheres to the law of averages, which makes sense.
    Avago, you certainly have a valid sample size for this analysis! If a silver sniper at a sorting center pulled an occasional roll with a nice ender showing, that could be one explanation for too few observed enders. I sometimes wonder when I get a decent box after a long skunk streak if the sorting center's silver sniper was on vacation!
    Avago likes this.


    Always do right; this will gratify some and astonish the rest.
    - Mark Twain


  11. #26
    us
    Feb 2012
    2,908
    2493 times
    Coin roll hunting
    Loved reading all the posts from you guys, truthful & honest. But I'll stick to my dimes when I can afford the itch.

  12. #27
    us
    Feb 2010
    Missouri
    2,626
    1757 times
    Avago - yes, as the # of silvers in a bow goes up the likely of hitting 10:1 ratio increases. My largest deviations are I've had 3 ender boxes yield 7 silvers and once had a 17 ender box yield 214 silvers.
    Avago likes this.

 

 
Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Home | Forum | Active Topics | What's New

Sponsored Links

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Similar Threads

  1. I PREDICT THAT
    By Peyton Manning in forum Non-sense
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: May 30, 2018, 06:32 PM
  2. First 2 boxes of the week, no enders, but Lots of Silver!
    By maverick in forum Coin Roll Hunting
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: Jul 25, 2012, 09:21 AM
  3. Convinced couriers are stealing my silver enders
    By SilverForBrains in forum Coin Roll Hunting
    Replies: 20
    Last Post: Jun 21, 2012, 09:33 PM
  4. Replies: 16
    Last Post: Feb 18, 2012, 12:09 AM
  5. 3 boxes of halves-unopened still, ENDERS! ENDERS! ENDERS!
    By BuffaloBoy in forum Coin Roll Hunting
    Replies: 23
    Last Post: Jun 29, 2011, 08:23 PM
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v4.3.0