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  1. #46

    Sep 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by mts View Post
    It simply isn't logical to say that all currencies will fail because some currencies have failed in the past. And so, I don't know what else to say to you. Your beliefs are wishful thinking. They may indeed come true, but it won't be because they are logical.
    That's upside down. It is wishful thinking that the USD (or the US for that matter) will never fail. The logical misstep is in saying: It hasn't failed yet and that is somehow evidence that it won't fail. All historical precedent says that both will fail. Every single previous world power has collapsed. All of them. The US has only existed for 250 years. Modern times actually makes failure more likely than for antient times/antient world powers.

    My wishful thinking would be for a strong US and strong USD forever. It is simply not possible.
    Swaveab, T.C. and catherine1 like this.

  2. #47
    us
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    It may be beneficial to define the term failed as it pertains to this discussion.
    failed means an unexpected, or non planned stoppage which would result in a chaotic status.
    if a currency or country, for that matter, were to evolve of change onto something which works better for the situation of population, I would not consider that a failure. As an example, it has been successfully demonstrated that the Roman Empire never really collapsed, it just adapted, changed into something more successful.
    AARC, LooseChange and mts like this.
    When you canít find what your looking for, your looking in the wrong place. Time for another drink

  3. #48
    mts
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    Quote Originally Posted by LooseChange View Post
    It is simply not possible.
    Why is it not possible? Logic says that it is absolutely possible. Do you have a logical reason you can give other than past history of some poorly managed fiat currencies that makes you think it isn't possible?

    It is definitely possible. I think what you meant to say is that it isn't probable.
    alan m likes this.

  4. #49

    Sep 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by LooseChange View Post
    That's upside down. It is wishful thinking that the USD (or the US for that matter) will never fail. The logical misstep is in saying: It hasn't failed yet and that is somehow evidence that it won't fail. All historical precedent says that both will fail. Every single previous world power has collapsed. All of them. The US has only existed for 250 years. Modern times actually makes failure more likely than for antient times/antient world powers.

    My wishful thinking would be for a strong US and strong USD forever. It is simply not possible.
    Quote Originally Posted by alan m View Post
    It may be beneficial to define the term failed as it pertains to this discussion.
    failed means an unexpected, or non planned stoppage which would result in a chaotic status.
    if a currency or country, for that matter, were to evolve of change onto something which works better for the situation of population, I would not consider that a failure. As an example, it has been successfully demonstrated that the Roman Empire never really collapsed, it just adapted, changed into something more successful.
    Quote Originally Posted by mts View Post
    Why is it not possible? Logic says that it is absolutely possible. Do you have a logical reason you can give other than past history of some poorly managed fiat currencies that makes you think it isn't possible?

    It is definitely possible. I think what you meant to say is that it isn't probable.
    There is indeed a logical reason for it not being possible.

    There might be various perceptions of "fail". But, there is only one meaning of "forever". Logically, humans (and human manifestations) are not even a glint when considering the abstract concept of forever-ness.

    The simplest reason that it it is absolutely and unquestionably not possible for the USD to avoid failure forever (no matter how you define failure) is that there in no such thing as forever in this context.
    A world changing event will happen. They always do. If nothing else topples the dollar, the sun will exhaust its fission fuel and begin to cool. Any scenario where humans become capable of colonizing other solar systems before that happens also have a finite end.
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  5. #50
    mts
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    Quote Originally Posted by LooseChange View Post
    There is indeed a logical reason for it not being possible.

    There might be various perceptions of "fail". But, there is only one meaning of "forever". Logically, humans (and human manifestations) are not even a glint when considering the abstract concept of forever-ness.

    The simplest reason that it it is absolutely and unquestionably not possible for the USD to avoid failure forever (no matter how you define failure) is that there in no such thing as forever in this context.
    A world changing event will happen. They always do. If nothing else topples the dollar, the sun will exhaust its fission fuel and begin to cool. Any scenario where humans become capable of colonizing other solar systems before that happens also have a finite end.
    None of that is logical. You can't arbitrarily define your own "context" and then state that nothing is forever in that context. Beyond that you are arguing whether or not forever actually exists. I think that is beyond the scope of this forum and certainly more than I want to get into.

    We will have to agree to disagree. The bottom line for me is that "if the first thing out of someone's mouth is a lie, how can you believe anything else they say". I'm not saying YOU are lying. All I'm saying is that the average silver bull will often repeat the following two claims within the first 60 seconds of talking to them. And once they make these claims, I know that they either don't know what the heck they are talking about or are purposely being deceptive.

    The two claims to watch out for...

    1. All fiat currencies have failed.
    2. The inflation adjusted price of silver since 1980 is <insert value here>.

    There are other common silver bull claims that are also misguided. But these are the two most common and neither one makes any sense.

    Thanks for the discussion!

  6. #51

    Sep 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by mts View Post
    None of that is logical. You can't arbitrarily define your own "context" and then state that nothing is forever in that context. Beyond that you are arguing whether or not forever actually exists. I think that is beyond the scope of this forum and certainly more than I want to get into.

    We will have to agree to disagree. The bottom line for me is that "if the first thing out of someone's mouth is a lie, how can you believe anything else they say". I'm not saying YOU are lying. All I'm saying is that the average silver bull will often repeat the following two claims within the first 60 seconds of talking to them. And once they make these claims, I know that they either don't know what the heck they are talking about or are purposely being deceptive.

    The two claims to watch out for...

    1. All fiat currencies have failed.
    2. The inflation adjusted price of silver since 1980 is <insert value here>.

    There are other common silver bull claims that are also misguided. But these are the two most common and neither one makes any sense.

    Thanks for the discussion!
    I didn't define the context. The context just is what it is.

    To be clear: My belief/assumption is that silver (or any other PM) will never be more valuable than its intrinsic value (ie industrial, artistic, or trade use value). If it were ever to permanently soar to over $100 per OZ, that is only because $100 has changed, silver has not. When it seems that there is an exception to this rule (such as the Hunt year), the value of the silver did not really change. The transient swings are obviously reality, but they do not demonstrate that the value of the PM has changed.

    I agree that anyone using the 1980 price of silver in their argument is being deceptive or trying to manipulate (or both).

    I stand by my assertion that it is a logical certainty that the dollar will fail. As I've said before: I believe that such a failure will not happen this generation, the next generation, or the next-next generation. It must happen at some point though. No one alive today should make plans for how to deal with that inevitability.

    Either stack silver as a hedge against inflation, or, trade the dips, or both.
    Last edited by LooseChange; Feb 04, 2021 at 01:38 PM.
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  7. #52
    us
    Mar 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by mts View Post
    This is simply not true. As long as we have fiats that are still in use then you can't say all have failed. But here is a 100% true statement that you can feel free to use if you want...

    ALL attempts to use a gold or silver standard to back a currency have failed. There is no arguing that point.
    Yes, but has Gold and Silver ever failed AS the currency? I don't think so. It's probably the earth's longest standing money.

 

 
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