Whats the odds?

[Digger]

What's the odds?

had a member ask the question "What's the odds" of finding a silver dollar? and I got thinking maybe I can compile a the data and make a chart showing the odds of finding different items. I'd like to give it a shot and want to start with the ever elusive gold coin.

For those who have found a gold coin(s), or know of someone who did, I'd like to know the type of gold coin(20D, 10D, 5D etc.) and the location(Kansas Fairgrounds, Colorado Park, Nevada homestead etc) you don't need to be specific on the location.

With this information I will create a chart people can use to see where the best odds are to find a specific item.

 

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[Tom_in_CA]

Re: What's the odds?

I sympathize with your odds-study, but I don't think it will end up being conclusive about anything. It all depends on the type sites a person hunts, and what state their in. For example, you can get a lot of clad sand/box hunters to answer such a survey, and might conclude that "a normal person" retrieves umpteen thousands of clad coins per each silver dollar they will dig (because, eventually, some kid looses a "show & tell" silver dollar in a school sandbox now and then). But then a relicky type hunter (CW, demolition, historic ruins type guys) might go years with only fluke clad amongst his finds. Yet he might get a silver dollar per each 10 clad quarters he finds, simply because he's not finding much clad to begin with.

And the ratio between silver dollars and gold coins is an odd one to pin down too. I know guys who've found a dozen silver dollars, but only one gold coin. Myself, I think I was at 1 or 2 silver dollars, verses 6 or 7 gold coins, at one point. Right now, I'm at about 11 silver dollars to 11 gold coins (the silver dollars "caught up" haha). But for all others I know of, the # of silver dollars always outweighs the gold coins. It's a regional thing too, as some states (the silver mining states of Montana and Idaho for instance, and the gambling state of Nevada) silver dollars are simply more common. And gold coins, for some reason, are more common to find in the west, than in the east.

So I don't think a few persons answering a thread, being so diverse geographically and in hunt sites/skills, will give any definative answer. But normally, silver dollar will seem to out-pace gold coins 5 to 1, at least where I'm at, and given that a person is into pre-1900 coin-find-thick-sites.

 

[Digger]

Re: What's the odds?

Well that is the idea. If the results show more gold coins found in California at old fairgrounds, then one would know their best chance to find a gold coin would be at a California old fairground. The study might also show a majority of gold coins are found at old fairgrounds. If this were the case, then people would know their best shot at finding a gold coin, even if not in California, would be at the old fairgrounds.

 

[done dug it all up]

Re: What's the odds?

do caches count as one find?

 

[Lowbatts]

Re: What's the odds?

Well that is the idea. If the results show more gold coins found in California at old fairgrounds, then one would know their best chance to find a gold coin would be at a California old fairground. The study might also show a majority of gold coins are found at old fairgrounds. If this were the case, then people would know their best shot at finding a gold coin, even if not in California, would be at the old fairgrounds.

You'd have to reduce the odds of finding a coin at any site where a coin was found each time one was found to use a true statistical formula. So the more coins are found at one site, the lower the probability of finding a coin at that site becomes and this reduces all such sites' potential if there are no other co-relational adjustments within site populations.
At some point those sites with few to no coins found would have an equal chance of return with those where many have been found, especially in the case of older coinage. The exception would of course be modern coinage and jewelry if you used some variable to explain replenishment within the site population.

 

[SHERMANVILLE ILLINOIS]

Re: What's the odds?

Well that is the idea. If the results show more gold coins found in California at old fairgrounds, then one would know their best chance to find a gold coin would be at a California old fairground. The study might also show a majority of gold coins are found at old fairgrounds. If this were the case, then people would know their best shot at finding a gold coin, even if not in California, would be at the old fairgrounds.

You'd have to reduce the odds of finding a coin at any site where a coin was found each time one was found to use a true statistical formula. So the more coins are found at one site, the lower the probability of finding a coin at that site becomes and this reduces all such sites' potential if there are no other co-relational adjustments within site populations.
At some point those sites with few to no coins found would have an equal chance of return with those where many have been found, especially in the case of older coinage. The exception would of course be modern coinage and jewelry if you used some variable to explain replenishment within the site population.

o.k.

 

[done dug it all up]

Re: What's the odds?

makes sense to me!



well...kinda.



If I guess the odds what do I win? I'm gonna guess 186,492:1. Let me know if this is right, and I'll take the cash instead of the car.