Falling Silver prices

[silverfinder20]

Since silver is falling do you think that there will be more silver coins available in circulation?

 

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[WormtownFJR]

I guess the $100,000 question is: Is the price of silver correlated to a CRHers haul? I would say possibly. The price of silver may increase the number of CRHers in a given area and that may cause a shortage, and a higher price may make people think twice before cashing in crazy Uncle Joe's half dollar collection. But there are many other factors that can confound those two, such as the depression and increased job losses; people not knowing silver is in coins and needing money. I doubt however the bubble we saw affected it to put more silver in circulation. Most likely the high point caused more people to be on the lookout.

 

[ArkieBassMan]

Since silver is falling do you think that there will be more silver coins available in circulation?

The price of silver would have to probably hit the single digits again before it would cause an increase of the number of silver coins in circulation on its own. However, a falling price (still will have to get MUCH lower than it is now) could theoretically cause a few CRHers looking strictly for profit to quit the game and thereby decreasing competition and leave more "out there" to find.

 

[jim4silver]

Since silver is falling do you think that there will be more silver coins available in circulation?

The price of silver would have to probably hit the single digits again before it would cause an increase of the number of silver coins in circulation on its own. However, a falling price (still will have to get MUCH lower than it is now) could theoretically cause a few CRHers looking strictly for profit to quit the game and thereby decreasing competition leave more "out there" to find.

I was talking to a coin dealer yesterday, and one interesting point is how much "junk silver" is getting melted as the prices go up. He said that a large amount of circulated junk coins are getting melted to make silver bars which are in demand now. I read elsewhere that some silver bar manufacturers are using junk bags to melt to make their bars due to increased demand. Over time I imagine the supply of junk coins will diminish to some degree. Still is alot out there though, especially the 40%ers.

Jim

 

[silverfinder20]

so if junk silver is being melted today, than doesn't that theoretically mean that our junk silver will be worth a premium besides the spot of silver in the future. If junk silver is being melted than that makes the supply decrease of that particular coin. With high demands and lower supply that creates a higher price.

 

[mts]

so if junk silver is being melted today, than doesn't that theoretically mean that our junk silver will be worth a premium besides the spot of silver in the future. If junk silver is being melted than that makes the supply decrease of that particular coin. With high demands and lower supply that creates a higher price.

There has already been a lot of junk silver melted and the value of junk silver coins really hasn't benefitted from it. With coins the supply/price curve is exponetial. It would take melting 95% of the junk silver coins available in order for the price to tick up a modest amount.

 

[ArkieBassMan]

so if junk silver is being melted today, than doesn't that theoretically mean that our junk silver will be worth a premium besides the spot of silver in the future. If junk silver is being melted than that makes the supply decrease of that particular coin. With high demands and lower supply that creates a higher price.

Possibly, but I highly doubt it. First off, there is absolutely no way of tracking how many have gotten/will get melted and how many are still out there to find. Regardless of how many it is, I don't see the demand for common date, or junk silver coins changing. They'll still, as always, be sought after for their silver content but not for numismatic value.

As proof I offer this: I would imagine an insane number of silver coins were melted in 1980 during the Hunt Bros. attempted cornering of the market when prices catapulted to $50/oz. (~$135 in today's dollars). That did not cause a premium to be placed on junk silver coins. I suspect the same will hold true in the future.

 

[mts]

Anyone who saw their silver halves valued at $17 each at the peak is never going to settle for face value on them. They would hope that the price would go back up again some day and hold onto them. So I don't think that silver prices are going to have a huge impact on CRH'ing finds. People who don't know about silver coins STILL don't know about silver coins (regardless of price). And those that do know aren't going to settle for face value ever again regardless of what the price does. The only impact might be if high prices help get more people educated. In which case, CRH'ing finds are likely to go down. Fewer people would be turning them in for face value. And more people would be looking for them in change.

I do agree with Arkie though that as the price drops significantly, more temporary hunters might drop out of the game. But that remains to be seen.

 

[sidmind]

people not knowing silver is in coins and needing money.

This is the reason I find on average 4-5 halves per month from the lady at the liquor store who saves them for me.
She says at the end of the month is when she gets the most of her "odd ball" money. not sure why she doesn't keep them for herself, but i would guess the same reason. I get them for face value.

 

[jim4silver]

so if junk silver is being melted today, than doesn't that theoretically mean that our junk silver will be worth a premium besides the spot of silver in the future. If junk silver is being melted than that makes the supply decrease of that particular coin. With high demands and lower supply that creates a higher price.

Generally no. However, I do feel there is good future potential in BU rolls of "junk silver". I have sometimes received deals where I could get BU rolls for only a little more than rolls of circulated silver. If your investment horizon is far into the future, you could see I nice return on BU rolls if you can get them now cheap enough.

Imagine if you had some rolls of BU Walkers, they would definitely be worth more than regular junk. Nowadays the best you will probably get is late year Franklin rolls and maybe some dimes and quarters 1960-64 or so. I personally would not pay more than 1X-2X face more than regular junk silver for BU rolls, and that is what I have been able to get in the past on occasion.

When silver was more stable last year I was seeing 62-64 mint and proof sets (on the Franklins) for .5X over face more than regular junk silver. Back then dealers were wholesaling them out since nobody else seemed to want them.

Jim