Silver ~ up or down?

[thrillathahunt]

I hate to say it but looks like it could still go down.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/143027/20110509/silver-bubble-burst.htm

 

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[jim4silver]

While I agree it is very likely silver will fall further in price, I have to disagree with the notion that the silver "bubble" has burst, i.e., that the bull market in silver is over.

If we look at past "burst bubbles" like the tech stocks and housing market, there is always the common feature of a large in rush of buyers towards the ends of the bubble. We are not anywhere near that in silver. I have read that less than 1% of investment money is invested in silver (futures, etfs, physical bullion, etc). Until a much larger percentage of people and their investment dollars flood into silver, we are nowhere near the end of the bull market.

In my opinion the ONLY thing that will stop silver and golds' bull market is if they greatly increase the interest rates and further not do anymore QEs. In 1980-81 Paul Volcker raised the interest rate up to over 20%. Anyone here think the current fed is going to increase rates even to 5%? I believe the only thing that is keeping the stock market up is all the QE 1 and QE 2 $$$$$$ being infused into the system. Some are worried simply not doing another QE (3) when QE 2 ends will hurt things, and that is not even including an interest rate hike of any kind.

Jim

 

[jim4silver]

I think silver will be at $15.00 by the end of the year.

Paper silver might be that, but not physical. I went shopping yesterday for silver and one local shop was out of silver different types of silver bars, and the other wanted almost 3 bucks premium on generic one ounce and ten ounce bars.

If silver hits 15 there would be a mad dash to buy physical, just like there seems to be in my area now to a much lesser degree.

Jim

 

[jim4silver]

I think silver will be at $15.00 by the end of the year.

Paper silver might be that, but not physical. I went shopping yesterday for silver and one local shop was out of silver different types of silver bars, and the other wanted almost 3 bucks premium on generic one ounce and ten ounce bars.

If silver hits 15 there would be a mad dash to buy physical, just like there seems to be in my area now to a much lesser degree.

Jim

Jim,
You may be right. I am only guessing. I have been buying and selling silver for over 40 years. I always try to buy when it is cheap and sell when it is high. I still believe I will be able to purchase silver for $15.00 at the end of the year. If I am wrong it will not be the first time. LOL

You have many more years experience in PMs than I do. You may wind up being correct, the only way I see that happening though is if they raise interest rates through the roof. If that happens gold and silver will take a big hit. So will the stock market and if we are not already in a depression we would be overnight because the lending would shut down (it is hard now for small businesses to get loans). I think the only thing that has kept the stock market going is the "easing" QE1 and QE2.

I tend to think the fed will continue "easing" and keeping interest rates low like they have been for the past few years. If they continue it will delay the inevitable "medicine" that I think we will have to take for years of overspending and taking on too much debt (as a nation and as individuals).

The time to sell PMs would probably be before they raise interest rates in such a manner. But some say even if rates are raised PMs could keep rising. No way to know for sure. Kind of like riding in an elevator that's cable snapped and it is crashing to the ground and knowing when to "jump" right before it hits the ground so as to not get injured.

Jim

 

[JD-GA]

You could have bought all you ever wanted to buy between $8 and $11. It was in that area for a long time. If you waited to sell at $43 and you wont buy again until $10 and under you may never buy silver again. In silvers history it had only ever seen $40 once and that was very short lived decades ago when it was run up by pure manipulation. NO one has bought at $8 and sold at $43 more than once in their lifetime. Having traded in silver for decades has its meaning, nobody has made a living buying at $8, selling at $43, then buying again when its $8. That has happened once in history.

Of course if you bought enough to make a few million profit from the "one time" then I reckon its doable though? Im not sure how it could ever reach $8 again being that the need for physical silver now wont allow that to happen. Heck even now everytime it hits $32 so many oz of physical are purchased all over the world that the price jumps up a couple dollars. The problem will be if there is enough manipulation and corruption left in the system for paper traders to bring the price down to $8 then paper trading and physical silver will no longer share the same spot price since NOBODY is going to sell physical silver at 8 dollars an oz again. I have customers begging me daily to get them some eagles at $35 each and my refineries refuse to take the order. Like others have mentioned finding cheap silver on this slump is hard to find. People arent selling unless they are getting huge premiums. That my friend is called a bottom when people who have refuse to sell you have reached bottom on physical.

Can the paper guys get it back under $10? Anything is possible I guess but if you are waiting to buy some physical at $10 people like me will buy every single oz available WAAAAYYYY before it gets that low which of course leaves none for those who are waiting on a miracle.

 

[mts]

...Can the paper guys get it back under $10? Anything is possible I guess but if you are waiting to buy some physical at $10 people like me will buy every single oz available WAAAAYYYY before it gets that low which of course leaves none for those who are waiting on a miracle.

Amen!

 

[Silver Surfer]

I think silver will be at $15.00 by the end of the year.

Maybe, but I dont think so... Why? If for no other reason, there are SO many more people aware these days of the worthlessness and continued downgrading of the dollar and the "safety" of PM's... I talk to people nearly every day that are either in, or wanting to get into, PM's... An old friend of mine just told me that he is going to call his retirement investor and see if he can get most of his portfolio out of the market and into PM's... He was asking me for my opinion on that (like I am an expert?? LOL), all I would tell him was to make sure it was physical PM, and not paper... He didnt even know there was such a thing as PM "notes"... I assured him that if he didnt stress physical, they would put his money in paper PM's, and those can be lost as easy as stocks...
The second reason I dont see it going that low, is simply due to the fact that the minute it even dips below $30, the demand will jack the prices right back up there... We are seeing that now.. I have been waiting (and almost wanting) the silver to hit below $30 again so I can buy some more, but every time I think it might, it cranks right up there again...
Like probably many of you, I am still kicking myself in the arse for not buying 3 yrs ago when it was below $18/oz and I had about $10k to invest..... But sadly, I didnt listen to the "little voice" in my head and dumped it into the stock market (which was going nuts at the time).... Then the crash, and before I knew it, one company I invested heavily into went bankrupt, I lost every cent, and the other 3 companies crashed also.. Lucky for me, the two cell phone parts companies I invested in are up 120% combined now, and the environmental company stock I bought (thinking Obama and his environmental views would surely make it skyrocket) went from $67/share down to $18, and although it is up to around $30 now, I still have a LOOOOONG way to go to simply get my money back, if I ever do...
The last time this happened (crash in 80's), I jumped out of the market with 218% gain, was told I was nuts for doing so, and then MCI, Enron, and WPPS all went belly up... I smiled all the way to the bank, whilst my big brother lost over $90,000.00 and my poor mother who listened to him rather than me, lost $48,000.00 from her retirement...
My brothers was also in "bonds" that he had been told were as safe as it gets... Yeah, right... I swore I would never again get into the stock market, and until 2007, did not... Now I just wish I would have bought PM's at that time instead of again delving into the market... I would be sitting on a gold mine (litterally) right now...
You may be right. I am only guessing. I have been buying and selling silver for over 40 years. I always try to buy when it is cheap and sell when it is high. I still believe I will be able to purchase silver for $15.00 at the end of the year. If I am wrong it will not be the first time. LOL

 

[jim4silver]

Maybe, but I dont think so... Why? If for no other reason, there are SO many more people aware these days of the worthlessness and continued downgrading of the dollar and the "safety" of PM's... I talk to people nearly every day that are either in, or wanting to get into, PM's... An old friend of mine just told me that he is going to call his retirement investor and see if he can get most of his portfolio out of the market and into PM's... He was asking me for my opinion on that (like I am an expert?? LOL), all I would tell him was to make sure it was physical PM, and not paper... He didnt even know there was such a thing as PM "notes"... I assured him that if he didnt stress physical, they would put his money in paper PM's, and those can be lost as easy as stocks...
The second reason I dont see it going that low, is simply due to the fact that the minute it even dips below $30, the demand will jack the prices right back up there... We are seeing that now.. I have been waiting (and almost wanting) the silver to hit below $30 again so I can buy some more, but every time I think it might, it cranks right up there again...
Like probably many of you, I am still kicking myself in the arse for not buying 3 yrs ago when it was below $18/oz and I had about $10k to invest..... But sadly, I didnt listen to the "little voice" in my head and dumped it into the stock market (which was going nuts at the time).... Then the crash, and before I knew it, one company I invested heavily into went bankrupt, I lost every cent, and the other 3 companies crashed also.. Lucky for me, the two cell phone parts companies I invested in are up 120% combined now, and the environmental company stock I bought (thinking Obama and his environmental views would surely make it skyrocket) went from $67/share down to $18, and although it is up to around $30 now, I still have a LOOOOONG way to go to simply get my money back, if I ever do...
The last time this happened (crash in 80's), I jumped out of the market with 218% gain, was told I was nuts for doing so, and then MCI, Enron, and WPPS all went belly up... I smiled all the way to the bank, whilst my big brother lost over $90,000.00 and my poor mother who listened to him rather than me, lost $48,000.00 from her retirement...
My brothers was also in "bonds" that he had been told were as safe as it gets... Yeah, right... I swore I would never again get into the stock market, and until 2007, did not... Now I just wish I would have bought PM's at that time instead of again delving into the market... I would be sitting on a gold mine (litterally) right now...

The key is not to listen to what other people tell you to do. Many fall prey to advice from some well-meaning person who turns out to be wrong. I have learned to trust my "gut" feeling and try not to rely on what might be termed a "logical" decision. The markets are not logical. I spend alot of time reading up on potential investment opportunities, so maybe my "gut" response is somehow derived from everything I have taken in, but whenever I have bought a stock or other investment because on paper it seems like the right choice or because someone said to buy it, it turns out to be wrong.

Also good is to find trends that seem to repeat over time. For example, when silver was near 50 and the chart was like a straight line up that happened so fast it had to "pop", since every other time any stock or commodity has done that it always corrected violently. Maybe it could have happened at 55 or 60, etc, but no way it was gonna last going up like that. I think silver will do it again and again like that before the bull market ends. Maybe more good chance to buy, then short, then buy, etc?

Jim

 

[quiksilver]

Anything can come down , even taxes. No one knows how much manipulation "they" can do but all and i mean all other indications point up in the long run.

 

[StevoCBR]

I think those that think it has a shot of even hitting $20 much less $10 do not at all understand the current state of the world. Yes there was a 30% correction and yes with all that paper silver anything is possible. But if your understand what is happening gloabally and all the big players are positioning themselves for the post Us dollar reserve currency world. We were asleep to long as a nation and have taken this crap for a hundred years and the chickens have come home to roost.

There are so many things I could point to, but if you don't have a clue what I'm talking about at this point then may god help you. Because Hi is the only one that can help you. Nothing personal. But at this point if what are government/president/NATO/IMF/George Soros does not alarm you, then there is nothing I can say or do to help you.

Budget or lack there of, debt, the political dog and pony show. The president making congress irrelevant aka Libyan war and the news yesterday is going after more power like declaring war without congress. Again I can go on and one.

Ladies and gentlemen, it seems that the rest of the word can see better than us how much trouble we truely are in. Just look at China and what the have told the world they want to buy in silver next 5 years. And they often don't show there hand and we find out after the fact so my guess is the amount is a lot greater. And that China is making a play on moving to a the world reserve currency.

Better read up on what is going on. The dollar is the biggest bubble of them all and could burst at any moment. I hope you have some silver when that happens.

H

 

[jim4silver]

I think those that think it has a shot of even hitting $20 much less $10 do not at all understand the current state of the world.

Although I agree with you on where silver is going long term, don't ever think you can outguess what the market can do. I don't think silver will get as low as $20, but it could drop into the mid $20s. Remember we are talking about the paper price, which for now the physical is tied to. At some point that will change and physical will break free if demand for it goes much higher.

Back when silver was near $50 some of us were saying on here that a correction was going to happen that could drive the price into the mid 30s, and we were called "dreamers" and worse. It got there in a week or so like it was nothing.

If the hedge funds and big speculators got out fast the price could fall dramatically. It will not stay low for long, but it could get there. I plan to be hedged either way so I will profit no matter if it goes up or down.

Jim