whats going to happen with silver

[brendan1414]

I think silver is going to shoot back up, almost like we seen it shoot down from $50. i guess that it will be back to $37-$39 range quite soon. i invested in an ASE i got online for $41 with an airtite. gotta love it =]

 

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[mts]

I personally think that silver is on the downhill slide. If you look at the current chart it looks almost exactly like the chart did back in the 80's when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market. You see big 25% drops followed by 10-12% recoveries. But the overall trend is down. Couple that with the situation in Europe; the situation in China; the situation in the US; the fall in prices of copper and other industrial metals; and the uncertainty of the upcoming elections and I think you have a recipe for lower silver prices over the next couple of years. Keep in mind that silver is really more of an industrial metal as opposed to a safe haven. If the market goes down then silver may follow suit.

In another thread I predicted $20 silver by the end of the year. But that would only be if something drastic happened in Europe. After rethinking my prediction, I believe that silver will stay around $30 until the end of the year. Then it will recover and stay around $33 for a couple of months. After that we will take another big 25% hit and end up down in the $25 range. Europe is going to play out slowly as they kick the can down the road for a couple of years, and the upcoming elections will be full of fear mongering which will affect the markets as well. When all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to see that silver ends up below $20 in a couple of years.

But I'm still bullish long term on silver. After having benefitted from drinking the silver kool aid a couple of years ago, I've had a lot more time to reflect on some of the claims being made by the silver bulls. I agree that silver will go up over the long term. But I'm not so sure that $100 silver will happen in my lifetime. Also, just because I believe the short term trend of silver is down doesn't mean that I won't invest in it. But I will likely invest in the ETF's instead so that I can take advantage of short term volatility without the hassle of trying to move physical silver.

As I've said many times before: if you want to make money, do the opposite of what I do. It's guaranteed to work. So take everything you read here with a grain of salt. I hope silver skyrockets to $100 soon. But I just don't see it happening. In fact, I'm expecting the opposite. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Goose-0]

Don't worry mts, nothing is going to be alright. I also drank the silver kool aid back in the early 1980s. As it is now, with an average 3% interest over the years on what I spent back in the 80s, I'm about even now.....sort of keeping up with inflation. Heck, who knows.....if things go the way they are now, I might end up melting my silver down and making a few boat anchors that I need.

 

[brendan1414]

It seems to me that people change their opinions based on short term trends. while that is not wrong, i mean people can have whatevver take on it they want, i just watch people say "oh, silver is going up, i predict $60 by next week..." i almost see it the opposite way. when silver was at $50, i predicted that it was going to drop drastically to $40 or so, and sure enough a few days later (after ridicule) it dropped to $40... no more posts on that topic. i feel like such a drop cannot be justified this time, and that it will rebound significantly.

 

[mts]

It seems to me that people change their opinions based on short term trends. while that is not wrong, i mean people can have whatever take on it they want, i just watch people say "oh, silver is going up, i predict $60 by next week..." i almost see it the opposite way. when silver was at $50, i predicted that it was going to drop drastically to $40 or so, and sure enough a few days later (after ridicule) it dropped to $40... no more posts on that topic. i feel like such a drop cannot be justified this time, and that it will rebound significantly.

I agree with you to a certain extent about how people tend to follow the trend. If the trend is up then they are bullish. If the trend is down then they tend to be bearish. That's part of the catch with emotional investing.

However, I've been becoming more skeptical over the past two years. At first, I was drinking the kool-aid pretty heavily. I believed the claims about gold to silver ratios, price manipulation, and inflation adjusted price comparisons to anomalies that occurred back in the 1980's. The reality is that you can pretty much justify any claim if you are emotionally invested in a particular trade. But that doesn't make the claim true. As time has passed I've been seeing flaws in many of these claims and I've been pointing them out on this forum. It's not that I don't think silver will continue to go up in the long term. It's just that I don't believe the reasons most silver bulls give are valid for this expected price movement. Therefore, although I think silver will go higher than $50 in my lifetime, I'm absolutely NOT expecting to ever see $200 silver.

So there is a difference between changing your tune solely on the current price trend vs. changing your tune before the price even started going down in the first place. And especially if that tune was changed not based on price, but based on looking closer at the claims being made by people who have a vested interest in making you believe that silver will soon be $200 an ounce.

Don't get me wrong, I've profitted (so far) from drinking the kool-aid. I bought most of my physical silver at $16-$18. So I'm still doing well. And I'd LOVE to see $200 silver in my lifetime. But the kool-aid has worn off and I'm now looking at things a little more critically. That doesn't mean I'm right. It just means that I'm more skeptical of claims that silver has nowhere to go but up. Short term, if the economy tanks again, silver will tank with it. Many so-called experts are calling for the economy to tank again for various reasons. Are they right? Maybe, maybe not. But very few silver bulls ever talk about the effects of the economy on silver prices. They expect silver prices to go up solely on their own merits. But if you think the economy could tank again and you also believe that silver prices are effected by the economy, then wouldn't you also be forced to concede that silver could indeed plummet again soon?

 

[jim4silver]

MTS makes some good points, as do many of the other posters on here. Unfortunately, nobody can know with 100% certainty what the short term (and maybe even long term) has in store regarding silver prices.

But the truth is the big money folks as I call them (hedge funds, mutual funds, etc) always are on the prowl to make boatloads of $$$$$$. They could decide silver has bottomed and jump back in and the price would rise quickly, just like it can go down when they decide to liquidate all at once (which is what I believe happened here and in May). If they have investors to answer to they cannot keep too much $$$$ on the sidelines for too long because it does not bring enough of a return, and many funds like to be able to say they only have a certain percentage (small amount) in cash at any particular time. Thus, if the stock market is not the place to go, nor are treasuries, it seems to me PMs are the place. I think this Europe situation is going to deteriorate either real quickly (if the other nations don't help out) or it will be a slow agonizing "death" (if the other nations do help out) in my opinion. Either way, it is not necessarily bad for PMs but will definitely be bad for the US stock market if the crap hits the fan in Europe. If that happens hopefully the big money will flow back into PMs. They may sell PMs at first to cover their stock losses (like in 2008), but at some point they have to put that money back to work.

I went to a couple of coin stores today and apparently there is alot of physical being bought by customers. I had heard from one coin dealer the other day that there was much inventory coming in from worried sellers, but the two stores I went to today had a different story. Both said they had numerous buy orders being placed for clients and while they did have some inventory, it was much less than normal. I saw a couple people picking up what looked like ASE monster boxes while I was there, along with the usual folks selling gold jewelry and a few bucks face of junk silver.

In the past, November and December have been outstanding months for PMs, usually some of the best months of the year. I don't know if that will happen this year or not.

Jim

 

[mts]

Unfortunately, nobody can know with 100% certainty what the short term (and maybe even long term) has in store regarding silver prices.

Amen! I do not even want to pretend to know what is really going to happen. To me, it is a coin flip. The price has a 50/50 chance of going either up or down. Everything I've said so far is pure speculation and based on "gut feelings". And we all know how well gut feelings work when investing. :P

 

[jim4silver]

Unfortunately, nobody can know with 100% certainty what the short term (and maybe even long term) has in store regarding silver prices.

Amen! I do not even want to pretend to know what is really going to happen. To me, it is a coin flip. The price has a 50/50 chance of going either up or down. Everything I've said so far is pure speculation and based on "gut feelings". And we all know how well gut feelings work when investing. :P

The key is to discover your true "gut feeling", i.e. intuition, vs. your emotional- fear based - greed based feelings that are not your true intuition.

For most, the true intuition response if hardly ever wrong. The trick is learning to recognize it vs. the other feelings that usually result in bad choices. When someone reads and hears lots of conflicting ideas on something, like the kool aid drinkers vs. perma PM bears, it makes it hard to get a good intuition based feeling because your head is spinning from all the various information coming at you all at once.

So far in my PM investing I have been wrong several times with respect to timing, but rarely wrong with the final result. For example, buying gold over silver for the past 8 months- good result now since it has fallen less than silver; buying slabbed old US gold when premiums were low and now they are high- good result now; buying platinum over the past couple of months instead of gold and silver, BAD result right now, hoping it turns out good later.


Jim

 

[FreedomUIC]

Unfortunately, nobody can know with 100% certainty what the short term (and maybe even long term) has in store regarding silver prices.

Amen! I do not even want to pretend to know what is really going to happen. To me, it is a coin flip. The price has a 50/50 chance of going either up or down. Everything I've said so far is pure speculation and based on "gut feelings". And we all know how well gut feelings work when investing. :P

The key is to discover your true "gut feeling", i.e. intuition, vs. your emotional- fear based - greed based feelings that are not your true intuition.

For most, the true intuition response if hardly ever wrong. The trick is learning to recognize it vs. the other feelings that usually result in bad choices. When someone reads and hears lots of conflicting ideas on something, like the kool aid drinkers vs. perma PM bears, it makes it hard to get a good intuition based feeling because your head is spinning from all the various information coming at you all at once.

So far in my PM investing I have been wrong several times with respect to timing, but rarely wrong with the final result. For example, buying gold over silver for the past 8 months- good result now since it has fallen less than silver; buying slabbed old US gold when premiums were low and now they are high- good result now; buying platinum over the past couple of months instead of gold and silver, BAD result right now, hoping it turns out good later.


Jim

I have no intuition nor gut fear. I am collecting bullion for only one thing. To supplement my retirement.
I have 15 years left to work and should be able to amass quite a pile of silver and maybe, with luck, a couple tubes of Gold. In 15 years the price will be higher than what it is right now.

That is pretty much my outlook on this, simple and to the point...