When does utterly common get melted into utterly rare?

[tigerbeetle]

Looking for insights.

I have been asking the following question to some coin "experts" and received utterly mixed answers. So I turn to the treasureists in here --likely the true experts.

I was recently watching silver coins being melted down at just one small refinery. Literally tens of thousands of coins were melted for bullion -- be it legal or not to do so. During my visit to the smelter, silver coins -- dimes, quarters, halves -- from the 1950s and even back to the 1940s flowed like wine -- hot molten wine, so to speak.

In recent years, literally millions and millions of ounces of silver coinage are being melted -- annually, if not (now) monthly!

Heretofore, how can anyone anticipate the future value of "thought-common" silver coins? Mintage had always been the criteria. That's now fully out the window. Thought beyond-common 1964 mintages could be bordering on extinction. OK, that's a stretch, but how about the likes of lowly 1958 silver coins?

It's almost as if this huge numismatic roulette wheel is being spun and when all the melting is done -- whenever that might be -- it'll take the likes of eBay to see what a coin is really worth, based on supply and demand -- and when the supply is no longer even remotely known.

 

[Henry2]

I always thought about that, a coin dealer was telling me about his trips to the refinery and the thousands of coins being melted every time he went there. The market I believe will have a tough time correcting itself due to the melting of these coins, it will never be able to catch up in my opinion.

 

[Jason in Enid]

First off, it's completely legal to melt silver coins.

Second, because no records have EVER been kept, it will never change the value of the existing coins. A coin mint a 1,000,000+ mintage will always be worth less than one with a lower mintage. It's not just private refineries doing this, the US mint has been melting down silver and gold coins since the beginning.

 

[l.cutler]

Value is not about how many were minted, it is more about how many are now available and how many people want one. For instance, the 1877 Indian Cent has a higher mintage than the 1909 s, but is worth more. Also, some coin series are less popular, so a low mintage coin is worth less than a higher mintage coin in a popular series. In theory if enough coins were melted, then some dates may get harder to get, and prices would rise. Most of the melted coins however are common dates in lower grades, and there are plenty of uncirculated examples of these newer, common coins to satisfy collectors. Unless there is a huge influx of new collectors, it is unlikely that there would be any effect.