What makes all of this "fun" is that nobody really knows which way PMs are going short to mid term. We all have guesses and hunches, but even individuals in the "business" for 30 years really can only guess just like a newbie.
Instead of seeking OPINIONS, learn to discover FACTS. Unfortunately, it is hard to know which facts are really true facts and which are merely opinions disguised as facts.
Here are a few financial FACTS worth noting, for whatever it is worth:
1. The US debt is near 17 TRILLION, and appears to keep growing with no end in site due to the fact that to reduce said debt, we would have to cut medicare, social security, stop all the wars we are involved in, etc etc. Do you think any of that will be remedied in the next 5 to 10 years, or do you think this situation will get worse?
1. A. The US debt limit has been reached again and will need to be raised. Looks like they are making progress right?
2. The US deficit is currently around 1 TRILLION per year or more, and appears to be getting worse. Some don't understand the difference between the US debt and a budget deficit. Basically the deficit is the money we need to spend each year but don't have and need to borrow to keep things running. The US debt is the accumulated deficits from each year, plus other things we spend on but cannot pay for and thus need to borrow to pay, that are all lumped together for a total sum. Just my rough definition of these things.
3. Major countries all over the world are now doing some form of QE which may differ a bit from country to country, but are all designed to weaken their own currencies by increasing the number of dollars, digits, etc that are available to be lent out. Seems strange that a country would want a weaker currency, but sometimes that can be advantageous for a short term, but longer term will result in inflation. Right now they say we don't have much inflation because the QE money is just sitting in banks and has not really been released to the world. That may be true, but it will happen eventually. You need to watch what is termed the "velocity" of money.
4. The US has record numbers on food stamps and other forms of gov assistance. Further, unemployment numbers are not getting better but worse, since the unemployment numbers don't count those who are off unemployment or have given up looking. Anything on the horizon that is going to make the US a manufacturing powerhouse or bring in new jobs other than min. wage type things? Further, I doubt the service sector jobs moved offshore will be coming back anytime soon.
5. The Cyprus money grab situation, which I believe will take place in many countries over time as things fall apart. Many countries have now passed laws allowing "bail ins" since the Cyrus grab. I wonder why they would pass such laws? Some may spin the Cyprus thing as simply a bank going under. It is much more than that but I don't have time to go into all that now.
The list can go on and on. My question to you is, in light of these bad facts, why in the world would stock markets be at record levels? Is there any correlation between our new stock market highs and our current state of our country's financial situation? Seems the stock market should be going lower since presumably the only thing keeping things running is artificial stimulus by the fed (QE). Maybe nobody cares as long as the stock market keeps making new highs.
I am sure some of the bearish posters will tell me even though the items I listed are true or accurate, they don't matter. We live in a modern world and everything has changed for the better. All the "rules" that applied to financial situations for thousands of years don't matter anymore now that we have smart phones and google glasses etc. Unfortunately, things don't change much with respect to humans and human emotions and greed, etc.
To know the future, study the past. The distant past and even what happened in the 20th century.
PS I am a PM bug, but when I wake up each morning and see silver and gold down more it actually makes me happy because I know I will still be able to accumulate a bit more metals while the price is still relatively cheap.
All my opinion, with a few "facts" thrown in.
Jim
I like Morgan's, peace dollars, and halfs. Lol!
