silversnacher
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- Jun 14, 2012
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I see silver has already dropped a bit, is that related to the government shutdown? Will it affect silver prices dramatically? Thanks for any input.
Government shut down, will it affect silver prices?
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jim4silver
Silver Member
- Apr 15, 2008
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Yes and no. Anyone that denies there is "manipulation" or rather that the nature of the markets allows manipulation either up or down (paper markets) is either intentionally ignoring reality or is lying to themselves. Because of this abilty to manipulate the paper PM market (by those with the deepest pockets) it is impossible to predict what is going to happen to PM prices in this current environment using "traditional" tools of measurement.
The dollar just broke into the 70s and gold is getting nailed too. I know this is just one day in a sense, but this type of thing has been happening more and more in the past few years. What I mean is assets that have traditionally been inversely related via prices are no longer exhibiting such price moves.
Example: dollar goes down, gold goes down. Latest QE for past 2 years should be very bullish for PMs, instead they go down for over 2 years. Fed says we are gonna keep doing QE, gold goes up for a few minutes, then back down for days, weeks, years, etc. Interest rates are near zero for a few years and PMs keep getting hammered. Oh yea, I forgot, if and when interest rates go up, that means PMs will go down too, right? There are countless other examples of such PM related conundrums for anyone to see, perhaps after they take the "red pill" so to speak (reference from The Matrix for those who don't know).
Meanwhile, please remember while all this is going on tonnes of metal are being bought up with HISTORICALLY HIGH PREMIUMS on physical gold in China and India, etc. In India the higher premiums are due to the Gov there adding taxes and things to try and inhibit citizens from buying gold because their currency is going in the crapper (anyone think that move by the Indian Gov is not a form of price manipulation?).
With all that is going on financially I am even more convinced that things are going to end bad for financial paper instruments at some point. What that means for PMs I don't know. My opinion is that once there actually is a scarcity of gold or silver at the current price levels only then will we really see what the real prices of PMs are or should be.
Just my opinion.
Jim
The dollar just broke into the 70s and gold is getting nailed too. I know this is just one day in a sense, but this type of thing has been happening more and more in the past few years. What I mean is assets that have traditionally been inversely related via prices are no longer exhibiting such price moves.
Example: dollar goes down, gold goes down. Latest QE for past 2 years should be very bullish for PMs, instead they go down for over 2 years. Fed says we are gonna keep doing QE, gold goes up for a few minutes, then back down for days, weeks, years, etc. Interest rates are near zero for a few years and PMs keep getting hammered. Oh yea, I forgot, if and when interest rates go up, that means PMs will go down too, right? There are countless other examples of such PM related conundrums for anyone to see, perhaps after they take the "red pill" so to speak (reference from The Matrix for those who don't know).
Meanwhile, please remember while all this is going on tonnes of metal are being bought up with HISTORICALLY HIGH PREMIUMS on physical gold in China and India, etc. In India the higher premiums are due to the Gov there adding taxes and things to try and inhibit citizens from buying gold because their currency is going in the crapper (anyone think that move by the Indian Gov is not a form of price manipulation?).
With all that is going on financially I am even more convinced that things are going to end bad for financial paper instruments at some point. What that means for PMs I don't know. My opinion is that once there actually is a scarcity of gold or silver at the current price levels only then will we really see what the real prices of PMs are or should be.
Just my opinion.
Jim
Last edited:
Marchas45
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Keep Stacking Jim no matter the spot price, it's getting mighty close to the big bang, :lol: Charlie
TreasurePirate69
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Or..... perhaps the silver and gold markets had already priced in an increase for the expected shutdown and now those markets are realizing that the shutdown is in fact "no big deal" and the price is dropping. Honestly, I really don't know.
Whether or not manipulation exists is not even a question. Of course it exists. There are constantly people on both sides of the equation trying to manipulate the price in their favor. Perhaps on a given day one side may be able to shove the price of silver by say 20 cents an ounce. Heck, maybe even $1 an ounce! To a very large bank that could result in a million dollar payday if done correctly. But we have too many people sitting around saying the price should be $50-$100 and the only explanation they have for the price not meeting their expectations is "manipulation". The price at the time of this writing is about $21.00. If I told you I could prove that the price right now is currently being manipulated down by 20 cents, your response would likely be: "Big whooping freaking deal! Who cares about 20 cents?". I simply can't imagine that anyone would be able to manipulate the silver price by much more than this before someone else jumps in a takes advantage of that manipulation to make themselves a fortune. If the price of silver really is supposed to be $100 then how foolish would the bankers be to let the price sit around $20 and not take advantage of it? It simply wouldn't and couldn't happen.
It's not enough to prove that some level of manipulation exists. Of course it exists on some level. But you also have to consider the magnitude, direction, and effect of that manipulation. Anything else is simply not looking at the world logically. Last weekend my wife "manipulated" the amount of sugar she uses in her cookies in order to accommodate my brother who has diabetes. In the end, although the manipulation was proven and could even be tasted to a certain degree, the net effect on the overall deliciousness of the cookies was completely negligible.
Final note: none of this is directed at any given individual on this forum. I am ranting against common beliefs held by many PM bulls but which may not even be held by anyone who has already commented in this thread.
Whether or not manipulation exists is not even a question. Of course it exists. There are constantly people on both sides of the equation trying to manipulate the price in their favor. Perhaps on a given day one side may be able to shove the price of silver by say 20 cents an ounce. Heck, maybe even $1 an ounce! To a very large bank that could result in a million dollar payday if done correctly. But we have too many people sitting around saying the price should be $50-$100 and the only explanation they have for the price not meeting their expectations is "manipulation". The price at the time of this writing is about $21.00. If I told you I could prove that the price right now is currently being manipulated down by 20 cents, your response would likely be: "Big whooping freaking deal! Who cares about 20 cents?". I simply can't imagine that anyone would be able to manipulate the silver price by much more than this before someone else jumps in a takes advantage of that manipulation to make themselves a fortune. If the price of silver really is supposed to be $100 then how foolish would the bankers be to let the price sit around $20 and not take advantage of it? It simply wouldn't and couldn't happen.
It's not enough to prove that some level of manipulation exists. Of course it exists on some level. But you also have to consider the magnitude, direction, and effect of that manipulation. Anything else is simply not looking at the world logically. Last weekend my wife "manipulated" the amount of sugar she uses in her cookies in order to accommodate my brother who has diabetes. In the end, although the manipulation was proven and could even be tasted to a certain degree, the net effect on the overall deliciousness of the cookies was completely negligible.
Final note: none of this is directed at any given individual on this forum. I am ranting against common beliefs held by many PM bulls but which may not even be held by anyone who has already commented in this thread.
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billjustbill
Bronze Member
Maybe another question to add to SS's questions: Did the Federal Banks, like in Dallas, shutdown, too?
