How fast are we depleting the vein?

[Swade2K]

This is a question for the long-term CRHers out there. Can any of you quantitatively explain how quickly silver returns are diminishing? You calculus buffs should be all over this! (I know that collection dumps are a constant)

 

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[maverick]

I don't think anyone can answer this question, it really is a game of "who gets it first". I can say that my finds have dropped of considerably in the last month and a half. HH, Maverick.

 

[Generic_Lad]

We won't ever deplete the vein simply because of collection dumps trickle in a little at a time. There really hasn't been a time in the last 20-30 years where it made more sense to spend a 90%er than to save it. With fluctuating silver prices there were times where 40%ers were worth more in face than silver though. So every silver half dollar we get is likely from a "collection dump" no matter how small the collection is (junk drawer coins, a small stash of odd coins, etc.). The only time we will truly run out of silver in circulation is when the dollar collapses and current US coins are no longer used.

We aren't getting boxes/bags/rolls from the 60s and 70s and so everything we get is likely from a collection dump, it just so happens that someone's "junk drawer" collection of half dollars may be 3 copper-nickel clads and a 40%er and not the 5 solid rolls of walkers that we dream of.

 

[sheepdog_tx]

I think either the banks will cut off boxes from people order 20 boxes a week or start culling long before we get empty boxes.

 

[Swade2K]

Yes, I agree. But there have to be more CRHers and thus less opportunity today than 5 years ago.

 

[kfs]

This is a question for the long-term CRHers out there. Can any of you quantitatively explain how quickly silver returns are diminishing? You calculus buffs should be all over this! (I know that collection dumps are a constant)

It would be difficult to determine. Certainly everyday more and more coins are pulled out of circulation. It is not uncommon for such coins to be sold and melted down. These coins are gone for ever. It really comes down to how many coins were originally out in an area and how Many people are looking for them actively. The problem is there is not a census report on CRHs.

 

[MIhunter]

Don't forget the harvesting of 40% is relatively new. Ten years ago the price of silver was $4/oz and a 40% half had a melt value of 60 cents. The total mintage of 40% half dollars is about 820 million (not including proofs, SMS, mint sets, 1976S), so there is alot of them out there!

 

[Generic_Lad]

Yes, I agree. But there have to be more CRHers and thus less opportunity today than 5 years ago.

Depends again on collection dumps. If you are in the right place at the right time and get 20 solid rolls of 90%ers, you'll do much better than people did ordering boxes 10-15 years ago. And really, I'm not sure if there are really any more CRHers than existed 5, 10, 15 years ago. The practice of buying rolls of coin at a bank and sorting through for interesting coins isn't new at all. Heck, the great treasury releases of silver dollars back in the 60s was basically CRHing on a larger scale.

If you look at people's finds back when this forum was started, you'll see that we have about the same or even more "dream scores". Of course boxes 5-6 years ago were a bit better, but there hasn't seemed to be much change with people getting dream scores.

Demand is only half the equation. You can be in an area with no CRHers and get skunked day after day. You can be in an area with hundreds of CRHers and score 20 solid rolls.

 

[CC-Hunter]

There is no way to quantify the diminishing silver returns, but I have to think that the level of CRHing culls exceeds the amount of silver coins added to the circulating population by collection dumps. That is, new silver may be added to circulation, but the number culled in a given period exceeds the number added by collection/sock drawer dumps. I can't prove that, it's just a hunch. So, some CRHer may find those newly added coins, but they will be fewer and farther between. Logically the CRHing would exhaust the wild silver over time, but there will always be some amount of dumped silver added to circulation, so silver that's out there won't go to zero. I suppose there are people hoarding silver today that may pass away and leave it to a clueless heir who dumps it in the bank, but I'd guess that most of the time the heir will be aware of what he/she has (probably because the hoarder told them or left notes indicated the coins were silver).

From what I have seen in my own extended family and on community online bulletin boards, a common first reaction to inheriting or coming across a coin stash, even if it's just a pile of coins in a cigar box, is to overestimate their value rather than treat them as common change. With the internet it's easy to quickly determine whether you found something of value. An example is one woman I know, who had no previous knowledge of coins, who did research on the internet just because she found a tin of indian head cents in her grandmother's things. She found out that she had at least one key date and, even though she learned that most of the cents weren't that valuable, she's looking to sell them to a dealer or collector rather than dump them. She also found some silver in the stash, including old silver dollars. She was disappointed to hear from me that the particular silver coins she had wouldn't bring much more than melt value if she sold them. Some people may spend of deposit collections, but I think most people like to think they've hit the jackpot.

 

[FormerTeller]

Pull up old threads in this forum, you'll get a pretty good idea...

 

[Rushfan]

Let me tell you stories based on my vast experience. Oh, wait. Nevermind.

 

[$nack-Money]

I'm really amazed that half dollar CRHing has lasted as long as it has. I've profited from it for so long, it seems that some other entity involved in the half dollar food chain/ life cycle hasn't put an end to it (such as the coin processors or banks). Admittedly, you really have to have a love of coin hunting as a hobby as opposed to making money with it in order to keep doing it for a long time. I think that the relatively recent concept of keeping the 40% halves (due their being valuable only since silver has spiked over the last 3-4 years) has kept crhing profitable. It will be interesting to see what its like in 10 years. I'm sure that wild silver will exist, it will just come down to how much work a person is willing to put into it for ever-diminishing returns.

 

[Senor]

It may seem like all these CRHers are making a dent in the silver, but it is possible that they are searching through the topsoil of stored halves, thus serving the anecdotal evidence that silver is dwindling.

IMO, until there is an organized attempt at group ordering boxes from Loomis, which is the FED's coin storage company, then the millions of halves that are in storage will remain there un-searched. Even on this board some recent decent finds have been made from boxes that were in storage for a couple of years.

In essence everyone is basically searching through other CRHers' dumps that are laced with the occasional collection coin.

Order from a Loomis bank and dump at a Brinks bank.

 

[sack0silver]

All we need is a few stupid grandchildren that need beer money, and we are golden.

 

[canaboy123]

FED.

I'm here

 

[Swade2K]

My Brinks boxes have been impressive of late. I'm taking a few boxes of dumps down to Eastern TN this weekend for a mini-vacation and plan to spend/dump them there. May do a bit of CWR hunting in mountains. I think we'll be saying "It's still out there" for years to come

 

[Local_coins]

Funny, I haven't really heard people say that keeping 40% coins is a new thing but I can understand it given their low silver content. I never thought twice about keeping them when silver was $4/oz and I'm glad I did, although they are the first to get traded for gold.

 

[enamel7]

It may seem like all these CRHers are making a dent in the silver, but it is possible that they are searching through the topsoil of stored halves, thus serving the anecdotal evidence that silver is dwindling.

IMO, until there is an organized attempt at group ordering boxes from Loomis, which is the FED's coin storage company, then the millions of halves that are in storage will remain there un-searched. Even on this board some recent decent finds have been made from boxes that were in storage for a couple of years.

In essence everyone is basically searching through other CRHers' dumps that are laced with the occasional collection coin.

Order from a Loomis bank and dump at a Brinks bank.

This idea is old. I believe the bottom of the pallets were reached a few years ago. I rarely see silver now in boxes. I reached the bottom when the supplier had to order more.

 

[baddbluff]

As long as there are half boxes to be bought there will be silver. Unlike dimes, halves aren't diluted every year with newly minted clad. And collections are constantly being dumped. The only 3 threats to the vein I see are banks getting annoyed and cutting us off OR a coinless economy (like Sweden is it-no cash/coin?) OR the silver culling machines in AZ going national.

 

[Senor]

This idea is old. I believe the bottom of the pallets were reached a few years ago. I rarely see silver now in boxes. I reached the bottom when the supplier had to order more.

If the supplier had to order more, where do you think those came from? FED storage. There are billions of halves out there, they have to be stored somewhere.

You're probably seeing the occasional silver because you're searching through yours and others' dumps, with the occasional collection coin thrown in.

Loomis stores coins for the FED, when their supply dwindles, then they will get more from the FED.