Most People Cannot Even Imagine That An Economic Collapse Is Coming

DeepseekerADS

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» Most People Cannot Even Imagine That An Economic Collapse Is Coming Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!

by Michael Snyder | Economic Collapse | November 3, 2014

The idea that the United States is on the brink of a horrifying economic crash is absolutely inconceivable to most Americans. After all, the economy has been relatively stable for quite a few years and the stock market continues to surge to new heights. On Friday, the Dow and the S&P 500 both closed at brand new all-time record highs. For the year, the S&P 500 is now up 9 percent and the Nasdaq is now up close to 11 percent. And American consumers are getting ready to spend more than 600 billion dollars this Christmas season. That is an amount of money that is larger than the entire economy of Sweden. So how in the world can anyone be talking about economic collapse? Yes, many will concede, we had a few bumps in the road back in 2008 but things have pretty much gotten back to normal since then. Why be concerned about economic collapse when there is so much stability all around us?

Unfortunately, this brief period of stability that we have been enjoying is just an illusion.

The fundamental problems that caused the financial crisis of 2008 have not been fixed. In fact, most of our long-term economic problems have gotten even worse.

But most Americans have such short attention spans these days. In a world where we are accustomed to getting everything instantly, news cycles only last for 48 hours and 2008 might as well be an eternity ago.

In the United States today, our entire economic system is based on debt.

Without debt, very little economic activity happens. We need mortgages to buy our homes, we need auto loans to buy our vehicles and we need our credit cards to do our shopping during the holiday season.

So where does all of that debt come from?

It comes from the banks.

In particular, the “too big to fail banks” are the heart of this debt-based system.

Do you have a mortgage, an auto loan or a credit card from one of these “too big to fail” institutions? A very large percentage of the people that will read this article do.

And a lot of people might not like to hear this, but without those banks we essentially do not have an economy.

When Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, it almost resulted in the meltdown of our entire system. The stock market collapsed and we experienced an absolutely wicked credit crunch.

Unfortunately, that was just a small preview of what is coming.

Even though a few prominent “experts” such as New York Times columnist Paul Krugman have declared that the “too big to fail” problem is “over”, the truth is that it is now a bigger crisis than ever before.

Compared to five years ago, the four largest banks in the country are now almost 40 percent larger. The following numbers come from a recent article in the Los Angeles Times…

Just before the financial crisis hit, Wells Fargo & Co. had $609 billion in assets. Now it has $1.4 trillion. Bank of America Corp. had $1.7 trillion in assets. That’s up to $2.1 trillion.

And the assets of JPMorgan Chase & Co., the nation’s biggest bank, have ballooned to $2.4 trillion from $1.8 trillion.

At the same time that those banks have been getting bigger, 1,400 smaller banks have completely disappeared from the banking industry.

That means that we are now more dependent on these gigantic banks than ever.

At this point, the five largest banks account for 42 percent of all loans in the United States, and the six largest banks account for 67 percentof all assets in our financial system.

If someone came along and zapped those banks out of existence, our economy would totally collapse overnight.

So the health of this handful of immensely powerful banking institutions is absolutely critical to our economy.

Unfortunately, these banks have become deeply addicted to gambling.

Have you ever known people that allowed their lives to be destroyed by addictions that they could never shake?

Well, that is what is happening to these banks. They have transformed Wall Street into the largest casino in the history of the world. Most of the time, their bets pay off and they make lots of money.

But as we saw back in 2008, when they miscalculate things can fall apart very rapidly.

The bets that I am most concerned about are known as “derivatives“. In essence, they are bets about what will or will not happen in the future. The big banks use very sophisticated algorithms that are supposed to help them be on the winning side of these bets the vast majority of the time, but these algorithms are not perfect. The reason these algorithms are not perfect is because they are based on assumptions, and those assumptions come from people. They might be really smart people, but they are still just people.

If things stay fairly stable like they have the past few years, the algorithms tend to work very well.

But if there is a “black swan event” such as a major stock market crash, a collapse of European or Asian banks, a historic shift in interest rates, an Ebola pandemic, a horrific natural disaster or a massive EMP blast is unleashed by the sun, everything can be suddenly thrown out of balance.

Acrobat Nik Wallenda has been making headlines all over the world for crossing vast distances on a high-wire without a safety net. Well, that is essentially what our “too big to fail” banks are doing every single day. With each passing year, these banks have become even more reckless, and so far there have not been any serious consequences.

But without a doubt, someday there will be.

What would you say about a bookie that took $200,000 in bets but that only had $10,000 to cover those bets?

You would certainly call that bookie a fool.

But that is what our big banks are doing.

Right now, JPMorgan Chase has more than 67 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives but it only has 2.5 trillion dollars in assets.

Right now, Citibank has nearly 60 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives but it only has 1.9 trillion dollars in assets.

Right now, Goldman Sachs has more than 54 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives but it has less than a trillion dollars in assets.

Right now, Bank of America has more than 54 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives but it only has 2.2 trillion dollars in assets.

Right now, Morgan Stanley has more than 44 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives but it has less than a trillion dollars in assets.

Most people have absolutely no idea how incredibly vulnerable our financial system really is.

The truth is that these “too big to fail” banks could collapse at any time.

And when they fail, our economy will fail too.

So let us hope and pray that this brief period of false stability lasts for as long as possible.

Because when it ends, all hell is going to break loose.
 

TheGoldProspector

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Doesnt seem too bright of an outlook..
 

Doc Arey

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Man you are spot on...It is coming and even those of us who know it coming will be hard pressed to handle the chaos that will follow. I wish everyone would read the book "One Second After". It's going to be hell on earth and ninety percent of us will be no more.
 

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DeepseekerADS

DeepseekerADS

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Man you are spot on...It is coming and even those of us who know it coming will be hard pressed to handle the chaos that will follow. I wish everyone would read the book "One Second After". It's going to be hell on earth and ninety percent of us will be no more.

There's an older post about when the Argentine currency collapsed, and yet another one about what happened in Bosnia during the war. I have Bosnian friends, a man of over 200 lbs, but around 90 lbs when it ended. Honestly, I really cannot see a way to avoid this. Gold, silver? The real key is food, and then self defense following that
 

AugustMoose87

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... Honestly, I really cannot see a way to avoid this. Gold, silver? The real key is food, and then self defense following that ...

Gold and silver will only be useful down the line. In the immediate aftermath, no one is going to give a :censored: about precious metals. All they will care about is food, water, medicine, ammo, shelter, etc. That isn't to say I'm not holding on to gold and silver, just that I know it isn't going to be worth squat until things calm down. I see two GIANT flaws in many preppers strategy, which is the reliance on a stock-pile. I know there are many who are better prepared, but having a bunk with a months supply of food and XXXX rounds of ammo is VERY short sighted. Not only do you invest a huge amount of money on things you ultimately hope to never need, but if the need does arise, you are only covered for a while.

Instead, I think the best approach for anyone is to work on long term planning. I know enough wild edibles, medicinal plants and ways to harvest game and fish, that I am fairly confident in my ability to have SOME food indefinitely. Will my families always have as much as they can eat? No. Will they be getting a nice balanced diet? No. But will there be something in their stomachs every night when they go to bed? Yes sir. While I certainly have some supplies, most of my time and money are going in to knowledge and books (since Google probably won't be around to help then...). Plus, the other HUGE advantage of investing in knowledge rather than supplies - I can use the knowledge now, I don't have to wait for something to happen. One of the best days I have had for quiet a while was finding a wild plum patch a few months ago. On top of being a great food source if things get FUBR, I have snacked on them all fall, and they were f'ing DELICIOUS.

Along those lines, I think many people are putting FAR too much reliance on firearms. Yes, an AR-15 can be a great tool to take what you need from other people. But sooner or later, you are going to run out of ammo. Plus, I'm sure I'm not the only one, but when someone comes to my family pointing guns and demanding food, I am going to be giving them inedible or poisonous berries, depending on how nicely they point their guns at us. And while a bow and arrow may not have the range or "instant kill" abilities of a firearm, arrows are fairly simple to replace, and I can guaran-dang-tee that with no medical attention, most arrow wounds [assuming a reasonably well placed shot] will either kill you or significantly handicap you (amputation).

Once the fun "give me what I want or I'll kill you" part passes, I think we will start by returning to trade - you have corn, I have plums. Then, if we are lucky, we MIGHT be able to start using precious metals as currency (part of why I hold on to nickles and copper pennies). But until cities get on their feet and we get plants/factories that can actually USE those metals, they really won't have much value.
 

austin

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I saw on Yahoo that Belize is a good place to retire to. May try that out while you guys worry yourselves to death. Most of us are so old that the collapse will come and go while we sit on the toilet one morning trying our best...
 

Treasure_Hunter

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My goal is to have at least a years supply of food, it isn't wasted money either as it is food, I just use it and replace what I use when I need something. I don't have a years worth yet, but do have about 4-5 months.......

How long do you think the "give me what I want or I'll kill you" will last? If it ever all goes to "hell in a hand basket" it will last for years not months......I prefer firearms and a crossbow over just bow and arrow. Bow and arrows didn't work out too good for the American Indians in the long run...
 

AugustMoose87

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To be clear, I'm not trying to say stockpiling is a complete waste. I am saying that people who stockpile and then think that alone will save them are stupid. If I had the money and space, I would have a food stockpile myself, since as you said, you can eat and replace, plus they would help out in a short term problem (Sandy, Katrina, blizzard, etc). I've just talked to too many people who think a stockpile of food and small armory will get them through anything. Would I have one to make the transition easier? Yea, if I had the space and money. But I would also realize that it is short sighted - knowing how to make water safe to drink is far more valuable than a years supply of bottled water. Knowing how to make snares and hunt with a bow will provide indefinitely, and I will never have to grapple with the decision of do I use my last bullet to shoot something to eat, or save it to protect my self? I know there are a lot of guys (seems like everyone on this thread for sure) understand that and are better prepared. Like I said, I have just talked with a handful of people who think some food, water and ammo mean they are ready for anything, or treat it like it will be a waiting game - if I can make it for 1 month, help will arrive and everything will go back to normal. I'm planning on help never arriving.

I agree it will last years, not months. In fact, my planning is essentially based on an indefinite recovery (Hence my preference for tools like bow and arrow which I can build and repair with things around me). And I will admit, my primary weakness is going to be in self defense. There my strategy is basically seclusion. I have a handful of spots where we could hide out while still having the essentials. My thinking is that the first week or so will likely be relatively violence free - sure there will be scuffles as people raid the grocery stores, but nothing major. Then, once all the stores are empty, and people start realizing that no one is coming to help, things will get hairy.The people with no preparation will start becoming violent in their search for food, water and medicine. In the following month or so, I'm thinking 50-70% of a given population will likely die, due to malnourishment, disease (likely from unsafe water), or violence over the remaining food/water/medicine. After this first wave, I think things will calm down a little - the remaining population will be those who either had a stock pile or can live off the land. Then, as people start depleting their stock piles, a second wave of death will occur. This is when we will have likely heavily armed groups out looking for food/medicine. I think anyone who has made it this far likely has secured their own source of safe water. This is where I think the group of stupid stockpiliers will run in to issues - they are out of food, don't know how to find their own (at least not enough), and have a finite supply of ammo. Yes, if they come to my family looking for food, we will be out gunned. But, I still feel I will have a leg up on them, because we are more valuable to them alive - we know how to get the food and medicine they need. So here my strategy is going to shift from seclusion to cooperation - You guard the place, we will keep you feed. That way, I'm not the one on the front line getting shot when the next band of armed to the teeth but starving people come along. After each little skirmish, there will be fewer people, and less ammo. I again cooperate with who ever is still alive. Rinse and repeat. And as I mentioned earlier, I plan to have the Ace up my sleeve, in that I plan to keep some foods which I (And my family) know are poisonous around, so that if I get someone who isn't willing to cooperate, they can be taken out of the equation with out a firefight.

WHEW!! That was a rant there August... I think I need to go detect the yard or something for a few hours... :laughing7:

Have a great day everybody!
 

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I agree with you.... People who have learned to fish and hunt for game and spent time in the wilderness doing so will out survive someone who just hordes.....

I learned to make snares when I was young and still know how and I use to hunt and fish every weekend. I am sure my tracking skills is terrible now but they can be refreshed. Knowing where and when to hunt and fish is worth more than just walking in the woods with a gun or bow....

A bottle of bleach is worth far more than 50 gallons of fresh water..
 

Chadeaux

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I've read quite a few topics here but this one has taken a different turn.

Did I stumble into the Polyticks forum by mistake?
 

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I've read quite a few topics here but this one has taken a different turn.

Did I stumble into the Polyticks forum by mistake?
Nope.
 

NHBandit

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There's an older post about when the Argentine currency collapsed, and yet another one about what happened in Bosnia during the war. I have Bosnian friends, a man of over 200 lbs, but around 90 lbs when it ended. Honestly, I really cannot see a way to avoid this. Gold, silver? The real key is food, and then self defense following that
Yep. Food and ammo. You can't eat gold & silver
 

NHBandit

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Gold and silver will only be useful down the line. In the immediate aftermath, no one is going to give a :censored: about precious metals. All they will care about is food, water, medicine, ammo, shelter, etc. That isn't to say I'm not holding on to gold and silver, just that I know it isn't going to be worth squat until things calm down. I see two GIANT flaws in many preppers strategy, which is the reliance on a stock-pile. I know there are many who are better prepared, but having a bunk with a months supply of food and XXXX rounds of ammo is VERY short sighted. Not only do you invest a huge amount of money on things you ultimately hope to never need, but if the need does arise, you are only covered for a while.

Instead, I think the best approach for anyone is to work on long term planning. I know enough wild edibles, medicinal plants and ways to harvest game and fish, that I am fairly confident in my ability to have SOME food indefinitely. Will my families always have as much as they can eat? No. Will they be getting a nice balanced diet? No. But will there be something in their stomachs every night when they go to bed? Yes sir. While I certainly have some supplies, most of my time and money are going in to knowledge and books (since Google probably won't be around to help then...). Plus, the other HUGE advantage of investing in knowledge rather than supplies - I can use the knowledge now, I don't have to wait for something to happen. One of the best days I have had for quiet a while was finding a wild plum patch a few months ago. On top of being a great food source if things get FUBR, I have snacked on them all fall, and they were f'ing DELICIOUS.

Along those lines, I think many people are putting FAR too much reliance on firearms. Yes, an AR-15 can be a great tool to take what you need from other people. But sooner or later, you are going to run out of ammo. Plus, I'm sure I'm not the only one, but when someone comes to my family pointing guns and demanding food, I am going to be giving them inedible or poisonous berries, depending on how nicely they point their guns at us. And while a bow and arrow may not have the range or "instant kill" abilities of a firearm, arrows are fairly simple to replace, and I can guaran-dang-tee that with no medical attention, most arrow wounds [assuming a reasonably well placed shot] will either kill you or significantly handicap you (amputation).

Once the fun "give me what I want or I'll kill you" part passes, I think we will start by returning to trade - you have corn, I have plums. Then, if we are lucky, we MIGHT be able to start using precious metals as currency (part of why I hold on to nickles and copper pennies). But until cities get on their feet and we get plants/factories that can actually USE those metals, they really won't have much value.
While I have the option of grabbing an AR15 as well as a variety of .308 caliber semi autos I think that in a truly SHTF situation where packaged food is not going to be available for a long period of time I would grab the old reliable Marlin Model 60 .22lr rifle to put food on the table & the Glock to make sure what's mine stays mine. Travel light and head for the woods.
 

coinbug

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» Most People Cannot Even Imagine That An Economic Collapse Is Coming Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!


The bets that I am most concerned about are known as “derivatives“. In essence, they are bets about what will or will not happen in the future. The big banks use very sophisticated algorithms that are supposed to help them be on the winning side of these bets the vast majority of the time, but these algorithms are not perfect. The reason these algorithms are not perfect is because they are based on assumptions, and those assumptions come from people. They might be really smart people, but they are still just people.

This is true so far as it goes, but it neglects to point out that derivatives can amplify bets to pretty much infinity. There's no limit to how much exposure can be out there, because no underlying asset is required to make a bet (these are called OTC, short for Over the Counter, and there are massive amounts of them out there with estimates as high as ten times the world's total GDP).

OTC derivatives caused the subprime crisis, and since then the only thing that's changed is that now there's a lot more of them.

Real assets that aren't subject to third party risk are the safest assets to hold these days.
 

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