jim4silver
Silver Member
- Apr 15, 2008
- 3,662
- 495
Platinum is getting interesting in that it has dropped a bit and with today's close is right at the lower trend line in the current upward movement that started in Aug 2012 and we are about at the 50% retracement point down from its recent high. If it breaks through too much lower it could go all the way back to 1400 if PMs are going to keep getting whacked like they have been for the near term. If it bounces back up convincingly (especially if gold and silver are moving down), I think we will see a new recent high and will be more confirmation of a new leg up and would hopefully retest its all time high of $2200+. Not the possible doubles and triples (or more) one might hope to get from silver some day, it still would be a nice move if it were to happen.
The main things to watch will be what happens in SA this year. They produce over 80% of all platinum and if there are mine disruptions like last year, we probably would see some good movement on the news alone. Any supply disruptions will definitely keep the price moving. They announced a closure of some mines that has since been postponed, but if they do go through will cause 14000 layoff and would probably lead to further strikes and/or protests, violence, etc. like last summer. Any news of them fixing all of these issues would hurt the price just on the news.
Demand for platinum for vehicle emission systems is not up like it is for palladium because the platnium converters are used mainly in diesel applications, which are popular in Europe. But Europe is having their own "recession" issues and demand for new cars is not up there like it is in China, India, US, where gas engines are more common (they use palladium and rhodium). But platinum has still been going up just on the SA story alone, so any new increase in auto demand for diesel vehicles would be added fuel for platinum's movement up.
The good thing about PGMs is that they are not usually affected by the same things as gold and silver and tend to move on their own rather than being pulled by gold one way or the other. Unfortunately, I believe that the further popularity of PGMs and the likely creation of more paper substitutes will likely cause them to one day be more open to "manipulation" like silver and gold are in the paper markets.
PS Another reason (besides the usual "manipulation") for the recent falling prices for gold and silver is that many hedge funds/institutional investors are getting out of gold positions, (futures, ETFs, etc.) from what I have been reading and hearing on the financial news channels. The news that came out that Soros has dumped a large amount of GLD will certainly be noticed by the large institutional investors/pension funds, etc. I actually see that as a good sign because we won't have a solid turnaround until outlook becomes so bleak that nobody wants PMs anymore (big investor wise). We may have a buying opportunity in gold and silver coming up that will give those who didn't buy enough at cheap prices another chance before the big run up that WILL happen someday.
Just my opinion.
Jim
The main things to watch will be what happens in SA this year. They produce over 80% of all platinum and if there are mine disruptions like last year, we probably would see some good movement on the news alone. Any supply disruptions will definitely keep the price moving. They announced a closure of some mines that has since been postponed, but if they do go through will cause 14000 layoff and would probably lead to further strikes and/or protests, violence, etc. like last summer. Any news of them fixing all of these issues would hurt the price just on the news.
Demand for platinum for vehicle emission systems is not up like it is for palladium because the platnium converters are used mainly in diesel applications, which are popular in Europe. But Europe is having their own "recession" issues and demand for new cars is not up there like it is in China, India, US, where gas engines are more common (they use palladium and rhodium). But platinum has still been going up just on the SA story alone, so any new increase in auto demand for diesel vehicles would be added fuel for platinum's movement up.
The good thing about PGMs is that they are not usually affected by the same things as gold and silver and tend to move on their own rather than being pulled by gold one way or the other. Unfortunately, I believe that the further popularity of PGMs and the likely creation of more paper substitutes will likely cause them to one day be more open to "manipulation" like silver and gold are in the paper markets.
PS Another reason (besides the usual "manipulation") for the recent falling prices for gold and silver is that many hedge funds/institutional investors are getting out of gold positions, (futures, ETFs, etc.) from what I have been reading and hearing on the financial news channels. The news that came out that Soros has dumped a large amount of GLD will certainly be noticed by the large institutional investors/pension funds, etc. I actually see that as a good sign because we won't have a solid turnaround until outlook becomes so bleak that nobody wants PMs anymore (big investor wise). We may have a buying opportunity in gold and silver coming up that will give those who didn't buy enough at cheap prices another chance before the big run up that WILL happen someday.
Just my opinion.
Jim
