LJ
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Interesting Article....For What It's Worth........
REUTERS POLL
Analysts polled - gold and silver price predictions and comments
Poll results and some comments from analysts as to what lies ahead in gold and silver prices this year and next.
Posted: Friday , 17 Jul 2009
LONDON (Reuters) -
Following is a selection of analysts' views on the outlook for gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices, gathered as part of the Reuters precious metals price poll for 2009 and 2010.
The survey was carried out over the last three weeks.
Summary data is also detailed below.
GOLD
2009 2010
Mean 937 990
Median 930 975
No of F'casts 45 42
DAVID MOORE, ANALYST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
"A spike to around the $1,000/oz level is certainly plausible in the next year, most likely associated with a period of U.S. dollar weakness. But if the gold price does cross the $1,000/oz line, we do not expect it to stay there.
We expect that the gold price will be volatile over this period, as the main rationale for investor demand for gold shifts from safe haven demand to a demand based on gold as a hedge against U.S. dollar weakness and, for some investors, perceived inflation risks."
PATRICIA MOHR, VICE PRESIDENT, ECONOMICS, SCOTIABANK GROUP
"I expect prices for both gold annd silver to have another run-up at some point, as the U.S. dollar comes under further pressure, as sovereign wealth funds and China balk at huge U.S.Treasury issuance and some signs of rising inflation re-emerge -- probably towards the end of 2009."
"However, gold prices are expected to eventually fall back to more normal levels, once the global economic recovery takes hold and investors shift further into "more risky" assets such as equities and "emerging-market" equities."
DAVID THURTELL, ANALYST, CITIGROUP
"Gold is basically dollar-driven, but there are expectations that all this monetary stimulus is going to spark inflation concerns, and therefore interest in gold.
There is a view that if world growth is in a gradual recovery trend, that will eventually help fabrication demand."
PETER FERTIG, CONSULTANT, QUANTITATIVE COMMODITY RESEARCH
"The major factor for the precious metals markets will be the recovery of the global economy and inflation fears. While it should become more and more obvious in Q4 of this year that the economy has reached the bottom and is improving, inflation is not expected to re-emerge.
The U.S. dollar is traditionally weak in Q4, which should help precious metals in the final quarter of this year. Fund buying might be the dominating factor for gold and silver in this period."
DAVID BEAHM, VICE PRESIDENT, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, BLANCHARD &
CO
"We believe very strongly that the dollar is going to fall, and we will have inflation. The real question is when is that going to happen. Once the banks begin to feel comfortable with lending money, certainly we are going to see some high inflation. As the economy continues to get better - although it
will be relatively slow -- commodities prices will be one of the few assets that will perform very well, not just this year, but over a period of time."
JAMES TURK, FOUNDER, GOLDMONEY
"...sadly, policymakers in Washington are not taking any steps to turn the dollar around and put it back on the right course by defining the dollar once again as an unchanging weight
of gold."
DAVID WILSON, ANALYST, SOCIETE GENERALE
"Gold will be dollar-driven during the summer as the market is likely otherwise to be directionless. If anything, prices in local terms are likely to come down.
Physical demand should pick up in the fourth quarter, but this from a very low base, and dehedging is also slack. We are looking for dollar weakening and nerves over inflationary implications of quantitative easing, suggesting fresh risk hedging to lift prices in 2010."
SILVER
2009 2010
Mean 13.71 14.53
Median 13.59 14.25
No of F'casts 42 40
SUKI COOPER, ANALYST, BARCLAYS CAPITAL
"As a precious metal, silver continues to attract safe haven flows as a cheap proxy for gold. However, with the exception of coin sales, we expect end uses of silver to remain weak over the forthcoming weeks and, in turn, investment demand has a larger void to fill.
Given the market balance is heavily dependent upon physical exchange-traded products to soak up the excess, net redemptions would not only expand the surplus but also add downward pressure
upon prices, as there is little fabrication demand elsewhere to meet any excess supply."
DANIEL SMITH, ANALYST, STANDARD CHARTERED
"We feel silver has benefited (earlier in the year) from the general safe haven story.
What we have seen in this quarter is generally that risk appetite has fallen away, so we are expecting most industrial markets to trend lower on the back of this story. Gold will be pretty well supported, but the rest of the complex will be hit.
In the early part of this year people got way too optimistic about the underlying economic picture, and now there is a reassessment talking place of what's really going on."
WOLFGANG WRZESNIOK-ROSSBACH, HEAD OF SALES, HERAEUS
"As far as the outlook (for silver) is concerned, its dependence on gold is expected to continue: should gold fall afresh, buying support from the industry and private investors -- which we have observed it the recent past -- will not be able to prevent the white metal from falling further."
REUTERS POLL
Analysts polled - gold and silver price predictions and comments
Poll results and some comments from analysts as to what lies ahead in gold and silver prices this year and next.
Posted: Friday , 17 Jul 2009
LONDON (Reuters) -
Following is a selection of analysts' views on the outlook for gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices, gathered as part of the Reuters precious metals price poll for 2009 and 2010.
The survey was carried out over the last three weeks.
Summary data is also detailed below.
GOLD
2009 2010
Mean 937 990
Median 930 975
No of F'casts 45 42
DAVID MOORE, ANALYST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
"A spike to around the $1,000/oz level is certainly plausible in the next year, most likely associated with a period of U.S. dollar weakness. But if the gold price does cross the $1,000/oz line, we do not expect it to stay there.
We expect that the gold price will be volatile over this period, as the main rationale for investor demand for gold shifts from safe haven demand to a demand based on gold as a hedge against U.S. dollar weakness and, for some investors, perceived inflation risks."
PATRICIA MOHR, VICE PRESIDENT, ECONOMICS, SCOTIABANK GROUP
"I expect prices for both gold annd silver to have another run-up at some point, as the U.S. dollar comes under further pressure, as sovereign wealth funds and China balk at huge U.S.Treasury issuance and some signs of rising inflation re-emerge -- probably towards the end of 2009."
"However, gold prices are expected to eventually fall back to more normal levels, once the global economic recovery takes hold and investors shift further into "more risky" assets such as equities and "emerging-market" equities."
DAVID THURTELL, ANALYST, CITIGROUP
"Gold is basically dollar-driven, but there are expectations that all this monetary stimulus is going to spark inflation concerns, and therefore interest in gold.
There is a view that if world growth is in a gradual recovery trend, that will eventually help fabrication demand."
PETER FERTIG, CONSULTANT, QUANTITATIVE COMMODITY RESEARCH
"The major factor for the precious metals markets will be the recovery of the global economy and inflation fears. While it should become more and more obvious in Q4 of this year that the economy has reached the bottom and is improving, inflation is not expected to re-emerge.
The U.S. dollar is traditionally weak in Q4, which should help precious metals in the final quarter of this year. Fund buying might be the dominating factor for gold and silver in this period."
DAVID BEAHM, VICE PRESIDENT, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, BLANCHARD &
CO
"We believe very strongly that the dollar is going to fall, and we will have inflation. The real question is when is that going to happen. Once the banks begin to feel comfortable with lending money, certainly we are going to see some high inflation. As the economy continues to get better - although it
will be relatively slow -- commodities prices will be one of the few assets that will perform very well, not just this year, but over a period of time."
JAMES TURK, FOUNDER, GOLDMONEY
"...sadly, policymakers in Washington are not taking any steps to turn the dollar around and put it back on the right course by defining the dollar once again as an unchanging weight
of gold."
DAVID WILSON, ANALYST, SOCIETE GENERALE
"Gold will be dollar-driven during the summer as the market is likely otherwise to be directionless. If anything, prices in local terms are likely to come down.
Physical demand should pick up in the fourth quarter, but this from a very low base, and dehedging is also slack. We are looking for dollar weakening and nerves over inflationary implications of quantitative easing, suggesting fresh risk hedging to lift prices in 2010."
SILVER
2009 2010
Mean 13.71 14.53
Median 13.59 14.25
No of F'casts 42 40
SUKI COOPER, ANALYST, BARCLAYS CAPITAL
"As a precious metal, silver continues to attract safe haven flows as a cheap proxy for gold. However, with the exception of coin sales, we expect end uses of silver to remain weak over the forthcoming weeks and, in turn, investment demand has a larger void to fill.
Given the market balance is heavily dependent upon physical exchange-traded products to soak up the excess, net redemptions would not only expand the surplus but also add downward pressure
upon prices, as there is little fabrication demand elsewhere to meet any excess supply."
DANIEL SMITH, ANALYST, STANDARD CHARTERED
"We feel silver has benefited (earlier in the year) from the general safe haven story.
What we have seen in this quarter is generally that risk appetite has fallen away, so we are expecting most industrial markets to trend lower on the back of this story. Gold will be pretty well supported, but the rest of the complex will be hit.
In the early part of this year people got way too optimistic about the underlying economic picture, and now there is a reassessment talking place of what's really going on."
WOLFGANG WRZESNIOK-ROSSBACH, HEAD OF SALES, HERAEUS
"As far as the outlook (for silver) is concerned, its dependence on gold is expected to continue: should gold fall afresh, buying support from the industry and private investors -- which we have observed it the recent past -- will not be able to prevent the white metal from falling further."
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