billjustbill
Bronze Member
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Thread Owner
What do you think of this line of thinking?
This is a segment from a newsletter I get. It can be found here:
Bill
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blo...011-investment-strategies-9-buys-9-sells.aspx
17. Sell Selected Commodities. We believe that a full-blown commodity bubble had developed. The recent shortages of hard rock miners for copper and other metals is one more signal of a top in the commodity boom. A hard landing in China may well be the pin that pricks that bubble. Not only has she been a gigantic importer of coal, iron ore, nonferrous metal, resins, crude oil and other industrial materials both for current production and for stockpiles, but psychologically China is considered the center of global industrial production.
Any hint of a hard landing there will no doubt drop the scales from speculators’ eyes and industrial commodity prices, including copper, will swoon. So, too, will the currencies of commodity producers such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada. And the strong dollar we’re predicting will work to depress commodity prices, especially the many globally-traded ones such as oil that are priced in dollars.
We’re recommending sales of selected commodities because agricultural producers are influenced by global demand but also by weather-driven supply. Forecasting economies is tough enough, so we’ll leave it to others to forecast the weather. Note, however, that in the past, ideal growing weather often follows the bad weather suffered lately, and bumper crops and surpluses often replace hand-wringing shortages in a crop year or two.
This is a segment from a newsletter I get. It can be found here:
Bill
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blo...011-investment-strategies-9-buys-9-sells.aspx
17. Sell Selected Commodities. We believe that a full-blown commodity bubble had developed. The recent shortages of hard rock miners for copper and other metals is one more signal of a top in the commodity boom. A hard landing in China may well be the pin that pricks that bubble. Not only has she been a gigantic importer of coal, iron ore, nonferrous metal, resins, crude oil and other industrial materials both for current production and for stockpiles, but psychologically China is considered the center of global industrial production.
Any hint of a hard landing there will no doubt drop the scales from speculators’ eyes and industrial commodity prices, including copper, will swoon. So, too, will the currencies of commodity producers such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada. And the strong dollar we’re predicting will work to depress commodity prices, especially the many globally-traded ones such as oil that are priced in dollars.
We’re recommending sales of selected commodities because agricultural producers are influenced by global demand but also by weather-driven supply. Forecasting economies is tough enough, so we’ll leave it to others to forecast the weather. Note, however, that in the past, ideal growing weather often follows the bad weather suffered lately, and bumper crops and surpluses often replace hand-wringing shortages in a crop year or two.
