What do you think about this view of the decline of silver?

[billjustbill]

I found this article... It concerns a sharp drop in silver prices.

http://www.hindecapital.com/docs/hi...Silver Criticality Why Silver Might Crash.pdf

What do you think of your information and this information?

 

[fistfulladirt]

Holy crap you actually read all of that? And I thought that I had a decent attention span.
I'll have to wait for someone else to hash it all out for me :P

 

[mts]

I don't put much stock into the practice of trying to model financial markets using equations and laws of other physical or natural phenomenon. In almost all cases so-called scientists fit their models to past events. But it is easy to look at history and fabricate a model that "would have" worked. It is an entirely different matter to create a model that "will" work in the future.

I couldn't bring myself to read the text past the first few pages. It's filled with way too much postulating for my liking. They could end up being right. But if they are it probably won't be because they correctly applied their theoris and models. It would more than likely be because they were lucky.

 

[jim4silver]

The article posted appears to be dated April 11 (as in 2011). Thus it is almost a year old. It was correct in its main thesis in that in May of 2011 silver crashed down from a high of near 50. I too thought silver would correct during that time period since it went from 20 to near 50 in mere months. Unfortunately I believed the crash would be sooner and stopped buying silver back then in the low 20s.

As far as opinions of where the market is going there are many who think silver will go up, many who think it will go down, and probably some who feel it will stay the same.

I believe silver will crash too, but not until it has finally peaked out and becomes the next must have asset that people are lining up to buy (along with gold). This is in contrast to all the "we buy gold" stores right now that are thriving as they have in the past few years. This tells me we are no where near a bursting bubble because to have such a bubble you need to have large numbers (on a percentage basis) flocking to the asset like we had in the tech stock bubble in the late 90s. I bring this up often, but how many folks do you know who own gold or silver bullion (excluding those on this board). Even many here on this board who like silver and gold probably have less than 10% to 20% of their net wealth in PMs. I believe some day PMs will become the next in thing in investments and that is when it will be time to think about selling and/or silver crashing for good.

Although I am clearly biased on silver, I believe that silver blasts through the $50 barrier sometime during 2012. My short term predictions are often wrong (too early) but so far I have been correct on the longer term trends. I really feel it could get to near 100 (depending on what happens in the mid east and to the price of oil), but I won't "predict" that since it would appear to be a bit crazy of a prediction. Of course the large paper shorts can play games with PMs like they did last week, but at some point when/if physical metals are demanded and the paper price splits from the physical price, it will be game on.

Jim

 

[pwcguy]

Silver is doing good on ebay. Allmost allways selling over spot price and somtimes by quite a bit.
When it stops selling on ebay then I'll be worried.