Do enders predict more silver success?

[Megalodon]

Picked up 2 Brinks boxes this afternoon and opened the first box. I had some help from my usual assistant. She sniffed out a silver ender that turned out to be a 1966 and an impaired proof



Upon removing the top 25 rolls, found a reverse ender that turned out to be a 1964 and that exposed this Wender in the bottom layer of rolls, so 3 total enders in box 1



Upon starting to open rolls, I came across the Elvis half and knew this box would be no "Hound Dog" and wished "Don't be Cruel". The Elvis half had me "All Shook Up" but I pushed on, thinking "It's Now or Never"



The rest of the box produced 5 Walkers, 1 Franklin, 2x1964, 1x1965, 2x1966, 1x1967, 1x1968 and 1x1969, so 14 silver in all. Plus a 1987-D and 4 impaired proofs



After the first box, I knew there would be no "Heartbreak Hotel" tonight. "Suspicious Minds" about box 2 - it produced 1 1966 half with an old tape mark across the front.

 

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[TxAg]

Yes, ditto what Gman00001 said about percentages. Sometimes better, sometimes worse. But hey Meg with that haul, you can afford to buy some “Blue Suede Shoes”!

 

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[Twitch]

Want to clarify something here: 1 ended doesn’t mean there should be 10 silvers, but 10 silvers does mean on average there should be 1 ended. Silver drives Enders, but Enders doen’t Drive silver. It’s a subtle difference but it matters. If every box you got had 1 silver in it, you’s Find on average an ender every 10th box but you’d never find a 10 silver bow.

or to summarize - the numbers of silver era is an independent variable. The number of Enders is a dependent variable.

 

[Megalodon]

Twitch, Thank you for that important distinction. I bet math teachers could get their students more interested in the distinction between independent and dependent variables by using that CRH example.

 

[Avago]

Avago, Thanks for sharing your actual summary data - that is exactly what I was hoping for. I need to do a better job with recording my own results.

You are doing a lot of boxes (about 12/week?) and must be busy with dumping. I'd like to search more boxes, but spreading out my dumps among all my credit union branches would require a lot of driving! Doing 2-3 boxes per week requires only local dumping.

Megalodon, yes! This year anyway, averaging 12 boxes per week. Previous years I was doing 8-10ish, but yes, the dumping is crazy! I'm able to float it all on a $4k bankroll with dumping in between pickups.

I just went back through 2016 and added them all up. 3071 boxes and 275 enders for an average of 11.16. So like 10% fewer enders than statistically should have been present based on pure odds. I don't think the margin of error on my records would be that significant, so I wonder what would cause this?

A note to Twitch that that's a good distinction to make. I do find that in general though the more enders are in a particular box the more it adheres to the law of averages, which makes sense.

 

[Megalodon]

Megalodon, yes! This year anyway, averaging 12 boxes per week. Previous years I was doing 8-10ish, but yes, the dumping is crazy! I'm able to float it all on a $4k bankroll with dumping in between pickups.

I just went back through 2016 and added them all up. 3071 boxes and 275 enders for an average of 11.16. So like 10% fewer enders than statistically should have been present based on pure odds. I don't think the margin of error on my records would be that significant, so I wonder what would cause this?

A note to Twitch that that's a good distinction to make. I do find that in general though the more enders are in a particular box the more it adheres to the law of averages, which makes sense.

Avago, you certainly have a valid sample size for this analysis! If a silver sniper at a sorting center pulled an occasional roll with a nice ender showing, that could be one explanation for too few observed enders. I sometimes wonder when I get a decent box after a long skunk streak if the sorting center's silver sniper was on vacation!

 

[Dozer D]

Loved reading all the posts from you guys, truthful & honest. But I'll stick to my dimes when I can afford the itch.

 

[Twitch]

Avago - yes, as the # of silvers in a bow goes up the likely of hitting 10:1 ratio increases. My largest deviations are I've had 3 ender boxes yield 7 silvers and once had a 17 ender box yield 214 silvers.