My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

[SFBayArea]

My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

With the recent slide in metals prices, it really goes to show that traders control the market, not fundamentals. I remember people all worrying about QE2 and how it's going to cause inflation. HAHA. Apparently it wasn't the case. Ron Paul keeps ranting about the FED and how he hates them. I don't have anything against Paul personally and he might be a nice old fashioned guy but he's no trader and has no clue about futures and the metals market. I would not count on Ron Paul to run the economy. That's for sure. This downslide in prices just proves it. He has no clue about trendlines or overshoots where traders pay a lot of attention to and jump in. I used to buy into all the hype that Gold or Silver can protect you against uncertainty. That's not how it works. Traders control the market. That hype is probably a pump and dump scheme too. I don't think Paul is going to make that "silver dime buying a gallon of gas" comment again anytime soon

With the National Debt being so high, I personally wouldn't mind if the FED printed money to pay for debt in small increments. I heard that it has been done before in small increments in certain countries where it did not effect inflation at all. In any event, I see the debt one day being an issue and it wouldn't surprise me that the government printed money to pay for some debts. However they should do it when commodities prices are on their lows. Do it in small controlled increments just like QE2. Eventually traders will start betting the prices down again and the cycle will just repeat itself.

For us CRHers, that is good because on one hand the debt issue and possible future money printing if it happens will cause the prices to rise. I can only see prices rise if another QE gets implemented. While prices go lower, enjoy picking up all the keepers you can find. However, do take advantage of price spikes and the papers market. Anything something spikes too much, it will bounce the other way. I recall years ago, I would get consistent boxes. Skunks were less than half and hopefully eventually with the downturn in prices, our finds will increase to the way they were.

 

[enamel7]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

Ron Paul knows more about the economy than anyone else in Washington. He would be great at the head of the Fed.

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

Ron Paul knows more about the economy than anyone else in Washington. He would be great at the head of the Fed.

Again, I'm just pointing back to the downward turn in Gold & Silver prices. How does Ron Paul explain that? A trader can easily explain it but Paul can't. Nothing against Paul personally but people should realize what really drives the market. Ron Paul is not a trader. I just suggest people not use politics to make the right logical decision. Time and time again, I can point to many instances where stocks drop despite companies doing well. Why? Because traders control the market. It's as simple as that. Notice how he hasn't said much about it of late. I bet if someone asked him what a "head and shoulders pattern" was, he would be thinking about the shampoo. LOL

Believe me, I used to fall for the hype. I realize now that I was a fool for believing the hype. Now after learning and reading about trading, it makes complete sense to see the market come down the way that it has. Any trader would be going short and not looking to buy after looking at the chart.

 

[SilverAg47]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

I remember people all worrying about QE2 and how it's going to cause inflation. HAHA. Apparently it wasn't the case.

Yeah, and drinking 20 beers per day for years probably wouldn't kill you right away either...

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

I remember people all worrying about QE2 and how it's going to cause inflation. HAHA. Apparently it wasn't the case.

Yeah, and drinking 20 beers per day for years probably wouldn't kill you right away either...

Well, controlled money printing isn't the same as overzealous-Zimbabwe printing same as having 1 beer a day for years instead of 20. Can you explain the down spike in PM prices? Thought they said it's good against uncertainty?

 

[SilverAg47]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

I remember people all worrying about QE2 and how it's going to cause inflation. HAHA. Apparently it wasn't the case.

Yeah, and drinking 20 beers per day for years probably wouldn't kill you right away either...

Well, controlled money printing isn't the same as overzealous-Zimbabwe printing. Can you explain the down spike in PM prices? Thought they said it's good against uncertainty?

Haha, go look up the 5, 10, 15 year graph of Silver or Gold. It doesn't really matter which one. When do you think Ron Paul started with his opinion on the FED, PMs, the Dollar, etc?

I believe you are making some HUGE flaws in your posts, but I'll break it down into the three big categories: confirmation bias, selection bias, and being results oriented.

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

I remember people all worrying about QE2 and how it's going to cause inflation. HAHA. Apparently it wasn't the case.

Yeah, and drinking 20 beers per day for years probably wouldn't kill you right away either...

Well, controlled money printing isn't the same as overzealous-Zimbabwe printing. Can you explain the down spike in PM prices? Thought they said it's good against uncertainty?

Haha, go look up the 5, 10, 15 year graph of Silver or Gold. It doesn't really matter which one. When do you think Ron Paul started with his opinion on the FED, PMs, the Dollar, etc?

I believe you are making some HUGE flaws in your posts, but I'll break it down into the three big categories: confirmation bias, selection bias, and being results oriented.

No because the housing market had been going up for 10 plus years too.. do you trade? How do you explain the downward move in metals prices? Fact is also that inflation had been its lowest since Bernecke than Volker or Greenspan. You can look that up for sure. You really don't understand where I'm coming from until you do trading and read charts. I understand where you're coming from because I've been there. The only difference is that you can't explain the downturn in metals prices? Silver dropped close to 50% from its high. That's more than a mere correction.

 

[SilverAg47]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

I remember people all worrying about QE2 and how it's going to cause inflation. HAHA. Apparently it wasn't the case.

Yeah, and drinking 20 beers per day for years probably wouldn't kill you right away either...

Well, controlled money printing isn't the same as overzealous-Zimbabwe printing. Can you explain the down spike in PM prices? Thought they said it's good against uncertainty?

Haha, go look up the 5, 10, 15 year graph of Silver or Gold. It doesn't really matter which one. When do you think Ron Paul started with his opinion on the FED, PMs, the Dollar, etc?

I believe you are making some HUGE flaws in your posts, but I'll break it down into the three big categories: confirmation bias, selection bias, and being results oriented.

No because the housing market had been going up for 10 plus years too.. do you trade? How do you explain the downward move in metals prices?

Well, first of all, do you trade or do you invest? I invest. Basically the question you are posing is the same as saying, "Why are the Lakers on a 3 game losing streak?" or something like that. Like you really cares, it is sooo short term.

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

I remember people all worrying about QE2 and how it's going to cause inflation. HAHA. Apparently it wasn't the case.

Yeah, and drinking 20 beers per day for years probably wouldn't kill you right away either...

Well, controlled money printing isn't the same as overzealous-Zimbabwe printing. Can you explain the down spike in PM prices? Thought they said it's good against uncertainty?

Haha, go look up the 5, 10, 15 year graph of Silver or Gold. It doesn't really matter which one. When do you think Ron Paul started with his opinion on the FED, PMs, the Dollar, etc?

I believe you are making some HUGE flaws in your posts, but I'll break it down into the three big categories: confirmation bias, selection bias, and being results oriented.

No because the housing market had been going up for 10 plus years too.. do you trade? How do you explain the downward move in metals prices?

Well, first of all, do you trade or do you invest? I invest. Basically the question you are posing is the same as saying, "Why are the Lakers on a 3 game losing streak?" or something like that. Like you really cares, it is sooo short term.

I used to invest. I'm started trading now and do a lot of work on it. Some things I just began to understand of late. Chart reading is something I've picked up as part of the game. I used to just buy and hold on news. That was a joke. I recalled I bought CSCO stock and held it for over 6 months just to make $200 on it. What a joke that was. If you look at the market in the 2000's. It was considered as a lost decade. Why would you do long term investing if you're just holding the bag. Why not take advantage of all the moves? Goldman Sachs stock was $180 over a year ago, now it's $90 POS. Yeah, who wants to hold the bag on that one? Keep holding the bag while some companies go out of business or go to bankruptcy. Obviously it's different if you got coins via CRH, so it doesn't cost anything but it's different if you actually bought. You should look up, "Pete Milman" a guy my age who doesn't invest but trades. Those guys run the market.

Oh, so if the Lakers can lose 3 in a row.. so can the Clippers or Colts. It's more looking like the Clippers at this moment than the Lakers. And I don't even like basketball. LOL

Sure silver went from $5 to $10 in a few years and took a decade to get up to $50 but it dropped 50% in 6 months. It's not a "who cares?" question. It's pretty noticeable.

 

[Generic_Lad]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

The down spike in PM prices is due to a "stronger" dollar, the dollar appears stronger because what the dollar is compared with (the Euro) is in worse shape, along with some typical market manipulation.

A trader is only looking to make a quick buck, not to hold the asset for a long term. A trader doesn't really care about what the asset is, as long as it is undervalued. Silver in the past few years has been massively undervalued, however, industry demand, the inflated dollar and investor demand has made it profitable for a trader to deal in. Thus traders end up controlling the "official" price, despite it not reflecting its real worth. That is (one of) the reasons why when you buy from a coin dealer you pay an often sizable premium over the spot price. Since people are obviously buying silver at $1-2 per ounce over spot, that is the true market price (for the majority of people not wanting to buy tons of the metal).

You need to invest in /something/ and silver/gold are as good as anything to invest in. The West is increasingly anti-business, numerous regulations and public outcry against corporations (look no further than the occupy wall-street movement) makes buying western equities troublesome. With real inflation around ~9% or so using non-manipulated data (the CPI was artificially altered to make it seem like the US has a lower inflation rate by substituting various products thus making it appear lower) and ~3.40% using the government's lying CPI measure, you are taking a guaranteed loss by placing money in a savings account, putting it in US government bonds or just keeping it in cash under your mattress. To be honest, there aren't many good places to keep your money unless you do your research and place it in a better jurisdiction (IE: not the US, Canada or Europe) where you can either gain decent interest yields on your cash (in banks that are generally much more stable than US banks) or invest in businesses there which have more potential to grow and thrive than in the west.

Its honestly scary when you realize how hard it is not to make money but to keep the money you have today.

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

The down spike in PM prices is due to a "stronger" dollar, the dollar appears stronger because what the dollar is compared with (the Euro) is in worse shape, along with some typical market manipulation.

A trader is only looking to make a quick buck, not to hold the asset for a long term. A trader doesn't really care about what the asset is, as long as it is undervalued. Silver in the past few years has been massively undervalued, however, industry demand, the inflated dollar and investor demand has made it profitable for a trader to deal in. Thus traders end up controlling the "official" price, despite it not reflecting its real worth. That is (one of) the reasons why when you buy from a coin dealer you pay an often sizable premium over the spot price. Since people are obviously buying silver at $1-2 per ounce over spot, that is the true market price (for the majority of people not wanting to buy tons of the metal).

You need to invest in /something/ and silver/gold are as good as anything to invest in. The West is increasingly anti-business, numerous regulations and public outcry against corporations (look no further than the occupy wall-street movement) makes buying western equities troublesome. With real inflation around ~9% or so using non-manipulated data (the CPI was artificially altered to make it seem like the US has a lower inflation rate by substituting various products thus making it appear lower) and ~3.40% using the government's lying CPI measure, you are taking a guaranteed loss by placing money in a savings account, putting it in US government bonds or just keeping it in cash under your mattress. To be honest, there aren't many good places to keep your money unless you do your research and place it in a better jurisdiction (IE: not the US, Canada or Europe) where you can either gain decent interest yields on your cash (in banks that are generally much more stable than US banks) or invest in businesses there which have more potential to grow and thrive than in the west.

Its honestly scary when you realize how hard it is not to make money but to keep the money you have today.

Yes, traders don't care about long term. Yes, but they are the reason why the drop recently was so substantial. They piled on to what they see as a bearish pattern. We're talking about major hedge funds here not your mom and pop buying gold. Yes, the dollar is strong because there isn't anywhere else to put it. Where you going to park your money? In Asia? LOL But what happened to all that talk about gold being strong against uncertainty? The debt crisis drove U.S. bonds sales instead of the opposite. China propping up the dollar so they can export. All those factors. I just don't see a reason for a large PM push unless QE is implemented which is the opposite of what Ron Paul would want. WHy did people flock to U.S. Bonds instead of Gold?

Traders don't care about companies. I have no attachment to them. Some companies deserve to have low stock prices. They will short if they see the strong down pattern. This is what is going on with the PM's. Why would you not do it if there's fast money in it? Who wants to hold the bag?

On inflation, some things have gone up in price such a medical bills. They just write up whatever high price they want in their mind. However other things such as food like chicken still the same. I recall Boneless Skinless Chicken Breasts still going for $1.99/lb 10 years ago. Wasn't gas at $2/gal at some point during the recession? LOL

 

[Generic_Lad]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

The down spike in PM prices is due to a "stronger" dollar, the dollar appears stronger because what the dollar is compared with (the Euro) is in worse shape, along with some typical market manipulation.

A trader is only looking to make a quick buck, not to hold the asset for a long term. A trader doesn't really care about what the asset is, as long as it is undervalued. Silver in the past few years has been massively undervalued, however, industry demand, the inflated dollar and investor demand has made it profitable for a trader to deal in. Thus traders end up controlling the "official" price, despite it not reflecting its real worth. That is (one of) the reasons why when you buy from a coin dealer you pay an often sizable premium over the spot price. Since people are obviously buying silver at $1-2 per ounce over spot, that is the true market price (for the majority of people not wanting to buy tons of the metal).

You need to invest in /something/ and silver/gold are as good as anything to invest in. The West is increasingly anti-business, numerous regulations and public outcry against corporations (look no further than the occupy wall-street movement) makes buying western equities troublesome. With real inflation around ~9% or so using non-manipulated data (the CPI was artificially altered to make it seem like the US has a lower inflation rate by substituting various products thus making it appear lower) and ~3.40% using the government's lying CPI measure, you are taking a guaranteed loss by placing money in a savings account, putting it in US government bonds or just keeping it in cash under your mattress. To be honest, there aren't many good places to keep your money unless you do your research and place it in a better jurisdiction (IE: not the US, Canada or Europe) where you can either gain decent interest yields on your cash (in banks that are generally much more stable than US banks) or invest in businesses there which have more potential to grow and thrive than in the west.

Its honestly scary when you realize how hard it is not to make money but to keep the money you have today.

Yes, traders don't care about long term. Yes, but they are the reason why the drop recently was so substantial. They piled on to what they see as a bearish pattern. We're talking about major hedge funds here not your mom and pop buying gold. Yes, the dollar is strong because there isn't anywhere else to put it. Where you going to park your money? In Asia? LOL But what happened to all that talk about gold being strong against uncertainty? The debt crisis drove U.S. bonds sales instead of the opposite. China propping up the dollar so they can export. All those factors. I just don't see a reason for a large PM push unless QE is implemented which is the opposite of what Ron Paul would want.

Actually, there are a lot of emerging areas that look promising for more research, at least for me. Mongolia seems set for a decent sized economic boom and a very high wealth to population ratio due to huge rare earth deposits. Although Mongolia is one of those countries which only can get better because its so bad to begin with, I do think there can be money to be made.

Of course the debt crisis drove US bond sales forward, but that is mostly due to accounting quirks. Regulations in many countries (and by many lenders) want a company to have a certain amount in cash or "cash equivalents" US bonds are considered by many to be "cash equivalents" when European bonds started being an investment that had some risk to it rather than a "cash equivalent" so they can't count it in their cash on their books.

The fact that Europe is doing badly doesn't mean that the US is doing any better, although it makes the US look better in comparative advantages.

And of course under Ron Paul's policies Gold/Silver won't increase in dollar amounts. Rather, the value of the dollar would be brought to be more and more stability by pegging it to a commodity (most likely gold). Because of this, there would be little need to own a lot of bullion because cash is much more stable than the meaningless variables and pieces of paper we have today.

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

@Generic Lad

Are you serious about investing in Mongolia? Didn't Afghanistan have a lot of rare earth deposits? I would be cautious in putting money into 3rd world countries.

The only issue with pegging the dollar to gold or going back to the gold standard so to speak is that there isn't enough gold to back all of it given the size of the world population today.

Also again why did all those people flock to U.S. Bonds instead of Gold? That is the big question. All those gold bugs claimed it was the ultimate hedge against any certainty. For a while, they had me going too.

I do agree that paper is worthless however. The world population is growing. To which gold or silver price will support the population? who knows? Well, maybe the traders do. LOL

 

[Dok Holliday]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

S.F.

I have nothing to say, simply because you've said it all. You have reaffirmed my faith in humanity...it appears some folks can be moderate, level headed, and look at individual issues ahead of politics. You appear to be one of them.

Thank you.

 

[$ilver$urfer]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

This thread should go into the precious metals forum or the politics forum or the everything else forum. This is a COIN ROLL HUNTING FORUM, also not a place to discuss politics or politicians for that matter. Your first post sounds more like a Ron Paul hit piece more than your feelings on precious metals and CRHing in general. I think it was very inappropriate for this forum and I hope the moderators move it to a more appropriate location.

Thanks and HH!

$ilver$urfer

 

[$ilver$urfer]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

Ron Paul knows more about the economy than anyone else in Washington. He would be great at the head of the Fed.

Again, I'm just pointing back to the downward turn in Gold & Silver prices. How does Ron Paul explain that? A trader can easily explain it but Paul can't. Nothing against Paul personally but people should realize what really drives the market. Ron Paul is not a trader. I just suggest people not use politics to make the right logical decision. Time and time again, I can point to many instances where stocks drop despite companies doing well. Why? Because traders control the market. It's as simple as that. Notice how he hasn't said much about it of late. I bet if someone asked him what a "head and shoulders pattern" was, he would be thinking about the shampoo. LOL

Believe me, I used to fall for the hype. I realize now that I was a fool for believing the hype. Now after learning and reading about trading, it makes complete sense to see the market come down the way that it has. Any trader would be going short and not looking to buy after looking at the chart.

Not a funny joke at all - I'll be forthright here I am a Ron Paul supporter but my question to you is this: Ron Paul is a M.D. that has delivered over 4,000 babies, has been elected to congress 12 times, heads a committee in Congress, has never flip-flopped on anything, strictly abides by the constitution, Vietnam-era veteran, married to the same woman for 50+ years, father of 5 children, one who is a US senator, is the father of the modern day tea party, and is slowly but surely changing the course of American history. You can easily make fun of him but what have you done in your life that rivals his accomplishments?

If you are for endless quantitative easing from the fed then by association you also love inflation, a welfare-entitlement state at home and endless wars abroad (the feds money pump allows for this). Millions of innocent Iraqi women and children and non-military were made cannon fodder while we tried to help them become a free democracy and looked for weapons of mass destruction, you know, the ones that were never found. Our nation-building in Afghanistan and now Libya and soon to be Syria will continue to cause hatred of our nation by the Islamic world. We need to drastically change our countries course of action before we end up as the modern Roman or British empire.

Not getting a handle on our monetary policy and budget will allow our countries ill-gotten foreign policy to continue and cause more blowback for us as a nation (please read CIA reports on our middle-eastern foreign policy and how it attributed to the 9/11 attacks). The main-stream media won't report on this that is for sure. You saying fed money printing will be good for hard metal investors and CRHing is absurd, I ask that you get your priorities straight and ask yourself what is more important, a pile of metal that you cannot eat or a monetary policy and foreign policy that may lead our country to its ruin.

Thanks and HH!

$ilver$urfer

 

[$ilver$urfer]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

I remember people all worrying about QE2 and how it's going to cause inflation. HAHA. Apparently it wasn't the case.

Yeah, and drinking 20 beers per day for years probably wouldn't kill you right away either...

+1

 

[Texar]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

PM market is down because it is a manipulated market. JP Morgan has a HUGE short on silver... so they have to manipulate the price to get out of this short position. It's great for me, 'cause I can buy a little more silver at a manipulated low. Silver is rarer than gold. Paper silver is leveraged at least 100 to 1. Look for the "paper" value vs "phyzz" value to separate soon. Don't trust "the traders"... our economy is a Ponzi scheme, on top of a game of 3 card monte, on top of shifting sand. Good money (silver and gold) ALWAYS drive out bad money (fiat). Oh, and printing money IS inflation - that is the definition of inflation. You say we haven't "seen it yet"... but QE hasn't entered the economy.... yet. Banks are sitting on it, so they aren't considered to be insolvent (which they are). We are in dire straits. I just hope they can kick the can down the road until I'm bugled to Jesus!!! And dat's my 2 cents.

 

[rileyboy]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

Interesting posts here, but....You guys are way over my head.
It's time for my cigar.
All the best,
rileyboy

 

[tmjones550]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

I have heard some crazy stuff but I think this post tops them all.Think about what you wrote.Let the Fed print more money to pay off debt.Do you think the government would allow you to print money in your basement to pay down your debt?There's no difference Who do you think will pay for all that printing?No one....thats why the Fed hates Ron Paul hes the only one who has called out the Fed for printing fiat money.We might as well break open our monopoly board games and take out the money and deposit it and pay down our personal debt.No matter how small the amount of printing that goes on it causes each dollar out there to become worth less.Thats why precious metals will pay off in the end.The worst thing this country did was go off the gold standard, Remember knowledge is power.
Learn about inflation and what causes it.Zimbabwe and Germany learned the hard way.This thread should not be in crh'ing anyway.