My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

[SFBayArea]

My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

With the recent slide in metals prices, it really goes to show that traders control the market, not fundamentals. I remember people all worrying about QE2 and how it's going to cause inflation. HAHA. Apparently it wasn't the case. Ron Paul keeps ranting about the FED and how he hates them. I don't have anything against Paul personally and he might be a nice old fashioned guy but he's no trader and has no clue about futures and the metals market. I would not count on Ron Paul to run the economy. That's for sure. This downslide in prices just proves it. He has no clue about trendlines or overshoots where traders pay a lot of attention to and jump in. I used to buy into all the hype that Gold or Silver can protect you against uncertainty. That's not how it works. Traders control the market. That hype is probably a pump and dump scheme too. I don't think Paul is going to make that "silver dime buying a gallon of gas" comment again anytime soon

With the National Debt being so high, I personally wouldn't mind if the FED printed money to pay for debt in small increments. I heard that it has been done before in small increments in certain countries where it did not effect inflation at all. In any event, I see the debt one day being an issue and it wouldn't surprise me that the government printed money to pay for some debts. However they should do it when commodities prices are on their lows. Do it in small controlled increments just like QE2. Eventually traders will start betting the prices down again and the cycle will just repeat itself.

For us CRHers, that is good because on one hand the debt issue and possible future money printing if it happens will cause the prices to rise. I can only see prices rise if another QE gets implemented. While prices go lower, enjoy picking up all the keepers you can find. However, do take advantage of price spikes and the papers market. Anything something spikes too much, it will bounce the other way. I recall years ago, I would get consistent boxes. Skunks were less than half and hopefully eventually with the downturn in prices, our finds will increase to the way they were.

 

[Marchas45]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

Ron Paul knows more about the economy than anyone else in Washington. He would be great at the head of the Fed.

Again, I'm just pointing back to the downward turn in Gold & Silver prices. How does Ron Paul explain that? A trader can easily explain it but Paul can't. Nothing against Paul personally but people should realize what really drives the market. Ron Paul is not a trader. I just suggest people not use politics to make the right logical decision. Time and time again, I can point to many instances where stocks drop despite companies doing well. Why? Because traders control the market. It's as simple as that. Notice how he hasn't said much about it of late. I bet if someone asked him what a "head and shoulders pattern" was, he would be thinking about the shampoo. LOL

Believe me, I used to fall for the hype. I realize now that I was a fool for believing the hype. Now after learning and reading about trading, it makes complete sense to see the market come down the way that it has. Any trader would be going short and not looking to buy after looking at the chart.

Not a funny joke at all - I'll be forthright here I am a Ron Paul supporter but my question to you is this: Ron Paul is a M.D. that has delivered over 4,000 babies, has been elected to congress 12 times, heads a committee in Congress, has never flip-flopped on anything, strictly abides by the constitution, Vietnam-era veteran, married to the same woman for 50+ years, father of 5 children, one who is a US senator, is the father of the modern day tea party, and is slowly but surely changing the course of American history. You can easily make fun of him but what have you done in your life that rivals his accomplishments?

If you are for endless quantitative easing from the fed then by association you also love inflation, a welfare-entitlement state at home and endless wars abroad (the feds money pump allows for this). Millions of innocent Iraqi women and children and non-military were made cannon fodder while we tried to help them become a free democracy and looked for weapons of mass destruction, you know, the ones that were never found. Our nation-building in Afghanistan and now Libya and soon to be Syria will continue to cause hatred of our nation by the Islamic world. We need to drastically change our countries course of action before we end up as the modern Roman or British empire.



Not getting a handle on our monetary policy and budget will allow our countries ill-gotten foreign policy to continue and cause more blowback for us as a nation (please read CIA reports on our middle-eastern foreign policy and how it attributed to the 9/11 attacks). The main-stream media won't report on this that is for sure. You saying fed money printing will be good for hard metal investors and CRHing is absurd, I ask that you get your priorities straight and ask yourself what is more important, a pile of metal that you cannot eat or a monetary policy and foreign policy that may lead our country to its ruin.

Thanks and HH!

$ilver$urfer

I agree Plus One except for the Democracy part. I am for Republic part and not meaning Republican party.

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

Ron Paul knows more about the economy than anyone else in Washington. He would be great at the head of the Fed.

Again, I'm just pointing back to the downward turn in Gold & Silver prices. How does Ron Paul explain that? A trader can easily explain it but Paul can't. Nothing against Paul personally but people should realize what really drives the market. Ron Paul is not a trader. I just suggest people not use politics to make the right logical decision. Time and time again, I can point to many instances where stocks drop despite companies doing well. Why? Because traders control the market. It's as simple as that. Notice how he hasn't said much about it of late. I bet if someone asked him what a "head and shoulders pattern" was, he would be thinking about the shampoo. LOL

Believe me, I used to fall for the hype. I realize now that I was a fool for believing the hype. Now after learning and reading about trading, it makes complete sense to see the market come down the way that it has. Any trader would be going short and not looking to buy after looking at the chart.

Not a funny joke at all - I'll be forthright here I am a Ron Paul supporter but my question to you is this: Ron Paul is a M.D. that has delivered over 4,000 babies, has been elected to congress 12 times, heads a committee in Congress, has never flip-flopped on anything, strictly abides by the constitution, Vietnam-era veteran, married to the same woman for 50+ years, father of 5 children, one who is a US senator, is the father of the modern day tea party, and is slowly but surely changing the course of American history. You can easily make fun of him but what have you done in your life that rivals his accomplishments?

If you are for endless quantitative easing from the fed then by association you also love inflation, a welfare-entitlement state at home and endless wars abroad (the feds money pump allows for this). Millions of innocent Iraqi women and children and non-military were made cannon fodder while we tried to help them become a free democracy and looked for weapons of mass destruction, you know, the ones that were never found. Our nation-building in Afghanistan and now Libya and soon to be Syria will continue to cause hatred of our nation by the Islamic world. We need to drastically change our countries course of action before we end up as the modern Roman or British empire.

Not getting a handle on our monetary policy and budget will allow our countries ill-gotten foreign policy to continue and cause more blowback for us as a nation (please read CIA reports on our middle-eastern foreign policy and how it attributed to the 9/11 attacks). The main-stream media won't report on this that is for sure. You saying fed money printing will be good for hard metal investors and CRHing is absurd, I ask that you get your priorities straight and ask yourself what is more important, a pile of metal that you cannot eat or a monetary policy and foreign policy that may lead our country to its ruin.

Thanks and HH!

$ilver$urfer

Silver Surfer, what does any of Ron Paul's achievements have anything to do with this? Ron Paul isn't Naustradamus or Jesus. He may be right about certain things and wrong about others. He is just a human being. Although I agree with Ron Paul's idea that we don't need to be the world's policeman, I no longer agree with what he's saying about gold being the ultimate hedge against anything. Completely different set of factors. You can't seperate the two?

People get all attached to politicians thinking that they're apart of them for some reason. My advice is to think independently and use logic to explain what you agree with and don't disgree with. Just because someone is Republican or Democrat, doesn't mean you're going to automatically agree with them and rally the troops around them.

I'm just pointing out flaws in some of what Paul said about the precious metals market. Not some personal attack that you think it is. You still haven't explained the recent drop in metals prices nor has Ron Paul.

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

PM market is down because it is a manipulated market. JP Morgan has a HUGE short on silver... so they have to manipulate the price to get out of this short position. It's great for me, 'cause I can buy a little more silver at a manipulated low. Silver is rarer than gold. Paper silver is leveraged at least 100 to 1. Look for the "paper" value vs "phyzz" value to separate soon. Don't trust "the traders"... our economy is a Ponzi scheme, on top of a game of 3 card monte, on top of shifting sand. Good money (silver and gold) ALWAYS drive out bad money (fiat). Oh, and printing money IS inflation - that is the definition of inflation. You say we haven't "seen it yet"... but QE hasn't entered the economy.... yet. Banks are sitting on it, so they aren't considered to be insolvent (which they are). We are in dire straits. I just hope they can kick the can down the road until I'm bugled to Jesus!!! And dat's my 2 cents.

Yes, it is very manipulated. I wish that the physical and paper can be seperated. However the paper dominates the physical and causes our CRH finds to go up and down at their will. It sucks because I'll look at Feebay coin prices and people will automatically try to go lower based on paper spot prices. If you were a seller on Feebay and a person doesn't want to pay high for silver, their excuse would be "well the spot paper price dropped so why shouldn't yours?"

A lot of the recent move up in PM prices is manipulation. A lot of is short covering by manipulation. Why? Because the traders run the market and who manipulates? Traders via hedge funds and big banks. Our coins are at the mercy of them. That was the point of my thread. Does PM prices keep up with inflation? Yes, however with inflation, the PM prices would never reach what they are now. The whole run up was manipulated in my opinion.

When will the physical seperate from the paper? Don't know but I suspect it won't because those who have the money (ie hedge funds and big banks) would protest it. They want their paper trading to be meaningful and also people don't like to trade the physical unless you really need it for something. Why would a market trader want physical possession of drums of crude oil? They don't. The only way to end all of it would be to force people who trade to take physical delivery which all of them would protest. Of course, in the end big money always wins.

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

I remember people all worrying about QE2 and how it's going to cause inflation. HAHA. Apparently it wasn't the case.

Yeah, and drinking 20 beers per day for years probably wouldn't kill you right away either...

+1

-1
But drinking 1 beer per day for years probably wouldn't kill you right away either. Moderation is good, not Extremism.

There is nothing for me to gain from making this post. Keep that in mind. I still have 55% of my coin collection which most of it is from CRHing. Wouldn't I be going against my own interests by posting this? I'm just pointing out some truthful realizations that I've thought hard about and figured out recently. Like I said, I used to believe all that stuff about hyperflation and PM being the ultimate hedge but I realize that this is wrong and pointing out that I no longer agree with Ron Paul on this issue. It's nothing personal. Maybe some of you guys are in denial because you went out and bought a bunch of gold or silver at its highs based on what they said. I don't know but you guys will have to continue to hold the bag. Take away the emotion and look at the logical. Instead of calling me names or ranting, you guys would be better off debating it and coming up with facts and examples to support your side of the issue in order to convince me.

Again, does metals keep up with inflation? Yes but the recent run up in my opinion was too quick and too soon. Not what one would expect on a slow upward pace that keeps up with inflation. I also do not see QE2 having dramatic effects on inflation as everyone claimed for a while.

No, I do not hold a short position on GLD or SLV. LOL

 

[StevoCBR]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

PM market is down because it is a manipulated market. JP Morgan has a HUGE short on silver... so they have to manipulate the price to get out of this short position. It's great for me, 'cause I can buy a little more silver at a manipulated low. Silver is rarer than gold. Paper silver is leveraged at least 100 to 1. Look for the "paper" value vs "phyzz" value to separate soon. Don't trust "the traders"... our economy is a Ponzi scheme, on top of a game of 3 card monte, on top of shifting sand. Good money (silver and gold) ALWAYS drive out bad money (fiat). Oh, and printing money IS inflation - that is the definition of inflation. You say we haven't "seen it yet"... but QE hasn't entered the economy.... yet. Banks are sitting on it, so they aren't considered to be insolvent (which they are). We are in dire straits. I just hope they can kick the can down the road until I'm bugled to Jesus!!! And dat's my 2 cents.

finally the real reason for the drop in silver prices.

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

PM market is down because it is a manipulated market. JP Morgan has a HUGE short on silver... so they have to manipulate the price to get out of this short position. It's great for me, 'cause I can buy a little more silver at a manipulated low. Silver is rarer than gold. Paper silver is leveraged at least 100 to 1. Look for the "paper" value vs "phyzz" value to separate soon. Don't trust "the traders"... our economy is a Ponzi scheme, on top of a game of 3 card monte, on top of shifting sand. Good money (silver and gold) ALWAYS drive out bad money (fiat). Oh, and printing money IS inflation - that is the definition of inflation. You say we haven't "seen it yet"... but QE hasn't entered the economy.... yet. Banks are sitting on it, so they aren't considered to be insolvent (which they are). We are in dire straits. I just hope they can kick the can down the road until I'm bugled to Jesus!!! And dat's my 2 cents.

finally the real reason for the drop in silver prices.

The problem is that how do you know whether this now is the manipulated low? The highs were manipulated by short covering. When I look at the chart now. I still would not be a buyer. If you buy now, you could be caught holding the bag. That's all I can say. I would prefer the market to be up trending in order for me to buy. No offense but that's what traders do. And honestly, I'm giving you a free tip with that advice whether you gold bugs like me or not. So far the PM has yet to break its downtrend. You guys still don't get it but the traders are the reason for the drop. Piling onto the short positions.

I don't see how QE2 really could go into the economy. The money they printed was to buy bonds. It didn't go anywhere. Which drops the dollar which is really a good thing for PM and for U.S. exports. China doesn't like it so they counter and buy bonds to try to drive the dollar back up so they can export. That's why they ran to buy up bonds during the debt ceiling crisis. It was the opposite of what people thought. You guys should really educate yourselves more on the mechanics of the market before jumping in on Gold bug wagon. Educate yourselves and that way you'll be ahead of the game.

Again, I have nothing to gain by posting any of this. No, this isn't an attack against you. Things are not as simple as gee they some printed money so gold sky rockets. People want things to be simple so they can make quick decisions but some things are just not simple. This is a global economy now so there a number of other factors that effect one another. No, there's a lot more that goes into a dictation of price.

 

[Generic_Lad]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

@Generic Lad

Are you serious about investing in Mongolia? Didn't Afghanistan have a lot of rare earth deposits? I would be cautious in putting money into 3rd world countries.

The only issue with pegging the dollar to gold or going back to the gold standard so to speak is that there isn't enough gold to back all of it given the size of the world population today.

Also again why did all those people flock to U.S. Bonds instead of Gold? That is the big question. All those gold bugs claimed it was the ultimate hedge against any certainty. For a while, they had me going too.

I do agree that paper is worthless however. The world population is growing. To which gold or silver price will support the population? who knows? Well, maybe the traders do. LOL

Like I said, I'm researching it not ready to pull the trigger quite yet.

And the reason why they flocked to US bonds is because of accounting regulations. A corporation or a bank cannot claim gold as a cash equivalent, if government regulations, or lender regulations force them to put, say, 10% of their assets into cash or cash equivalents, they cannot use that 10% and put it in gold because it isn't considered to be a cash equivalent. Because sitting on cash doesn't make money and European bonds being in risk of default, most companies decided to cut their losses and simply invest in US bonds, not because it makes the most fiscal sense, but because its the lesser of 3 evils (if you invest in Europe, you may lose a good chunk of your investment + inflation loss, if you sit on cash you are making a ~-9% yield, if you invest in US bonds you are making a ~-6% yield).

Its absolutely foolish (and I'd argue immoral) for an individual to invest in US bonds, but for a company bound by regulations to put a certain percentage of their assets in cash or cash equivalents it makes the most sense.

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

@Generic Lad

Are you serious about investing in Mongolia? Didn't Afghanistan have a lot of rare earth deposits? I would be cautious in putting money into 3rd world countries.

The only issue with pegging the dollar to gold or going back to the gold standard so to speak is that there isn't enough gold to back all of it given the size of the world population today.

Also again why did all those people flock to U.S. Bonds instead of Gold? That is the big question. All those gold bugs claimed it was the ultimate hedge against any certainty. For a while, they had me going too.

I do agree that paper is worthless however. The world population is growing. To which gold or silver price will support the population? who knows? Well, maybe the traders do. LOL

Like I said, I'm researching it not ready to pull the trigger quite yet.

And the reason why they flocked to US bonds is because of accounting regulations. A corporation or a bank cannot claim gold as a cash equivalent, if government regulations, or lender regulations force them to put, say, 10% of their assets into cash or cash equivalents, they cannot use that 10% and put it in gold because it isn't considered to be a cash equivalent. Because sitting on cash doesn't make money and European bonds being in risk of default, most companies decided to cut their losses and simply invest in US bonds, not because it makes the most fiscal sense, but because its the lesser of 3 evils (if you invest in Europe, you may lose a good chunk of your investment + inflation loss, if you sit on cash you are making a ~-9% yield, if you invest in US bonds you are making a ~-6% yield).

Its absolutely foolish (and I'd argue immoral) for an individual to invest in US bonds, but for a company bound by regulations to put a certain percentage of their assets in cash or cash equivalents it makes the most sense.

There are no regulations on what countries can do. Why didn't China run to buy gold? They choose US bonds instead. #2 Economy in the world? Why because they want a high dollar so they can continue to export at our expense and take away jobs here. I recall hearing on CNBC that China stands firm with US Bonds when the debt ceiling crisis was at a climax. Like they really care about U.S. interests. They don't. They're doing it to prop up their exports. It's really a race to deface all currency nowadays. A high dollar can suck it. It does no good unless you're company outsourcing jobs and materials which I'm not a fan of.

ALso, companies can put their money into gold or silver via market investment ETF's like GLD or SLV which trade the same as spot prices. They could do that but they didn't. Not much different than buying stock in some company which companies do all the time.

I personally would not buy U.S. Bonds either.

 

[Texar]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

The only issue with pegging the dollar to gold or going back to the gold standard so to speak is that there isn't enough gold to back all of it given the size of the world population today.


There is plenty of gold to back the fiat currencies... the problem is that 1 oz of gold would be worth $50K to $100K, and TPTB don't like that. They like fiat money so they can manipulate it and print themselves more. I believe that when people realize that fiat money is worthless... they will be willing to pay ANY AMOUNT of fiat money for gold and silver. Maybe we'll be able to buy a house with 100 oz of silver or something crazy like that. As for me, I'm gonna keep stacking. PM's can't be printed. (In case you haven't noticed... I'm a true believer).

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

The only issue with pegging the dollar to gold or going back to the gold standard so to speak is that there isn't enough gold to back all of it given the size of the world population today.


There is plenty of gold to back the fiat currencies... the problem is that 1 oz of gold would be worth $50K to $100K, and TPTB don't like that. They like fiat money so they can manipulate it and print themselves more. I believe that when people realize that fiat money is worthless... they will be willing to pay ANY AMOUNT of fiat money for gold and silver. Maybe we'll be able to buy a house with 100 oz of silver or something crazy like that. As for me, I'm gonna keep stacking. PM's can't be printed. (In case you haven't noticed... I'm a true believer).

Well, you can keep stacking along with the rest of us here. The issue of gold standard, there are so many people in the world today that if everyone wanted an ounce of gold, they could not have one. There simply isn't enough to go around. That's why I don't think the gold standard would work. What are they going to do then? What if the population keeps growing? You can print more money but you can't dig much more gold out of the ground. It worked back then because the world wasn't globalized, lower populations, and only a few countries really had the wealth.

Sure you're a true believer. Sure gold will go up in price. But how much more and when? If gold only kept up with inflation and inflation remains low, then maybe you'll 3/k per ounce 50 years from now. who knows? By then, Ron Paul would not be here anymore and I would be as old as Ron Paul.

I personally no longer see PM as a hedge against anything other than inflation just as a house or property. That's it. It's not a hedge against uncertainty as those who get brainwashed claim. With inflation kept in check, I would not be investing in it. To me, it's really not an investment. It just keeps up with inflation and that's it. Obviously that's not to say that prices cannot be manipulated like the recent run up and decline. You cannot get away from the fact that the paper trade dominates the physical trade. So whatever paper prices get manipulated, your coins are being manipulated. A separation would never happen. Too many big players with too much money would never allow it to happen. We are at their mercy so why not fight it and go with the manipulation? Learn to use the charts to your advantage just as the paper traders do. Buy and sell your PM's at the right times and take advantage of all those moves instead of holding the bag forever. Of course, I'm stilling hold the bag of the remainder of my collection as I write this.

It's like this, whenever I hear a big run up in paper crude oil prices, I run out and fill up on gas right away. When I hear about oil prices dropping on paper, I wait to fill up. You dig?

But hey, if you get your silver at the lowest price possible? Why not keep stacking. LOL. Nothing here to tell people to give up CRHing but be willing to sell if the right occasion pops up again.

 

[SilverAg47]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

It's been over a month since OP. Any new thoughts? And in that time have you come up with a new phrase other than "holding the bag"? I believe you used it about 872 times in this thread. Well, my bag has certainly gotten heavier this past month...

 

[kvilleification]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

http://www.infowars.com

 

[SFBayArea]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

It's been over a month since OP. Any new thoughts? And in that time have you come up with a new phrase other than "holding the bag"? I believe you used it about 872 times in this thread. Well, my bag has certainly gotten heavier this past month...

Depends on what you got in at. If you bought at anything above the current price, then you would still be holding the bag. It's plain as that. Look for silver to do a slight pullback if it is to go higher. No, holding the bag is still holding the bag. $33/oz. isn't spectacular by any means. Still a far cry from $50. Look for resistance around 35-36 level. It is reaching a pivotal point where the down trendline top exists. If it is going any higher, it has to break it. If not, it'll come back down or stay range bound. At what price did you get in at? If it's from CRHing, it doesn't matter. My bag got heavier too. I should just not do anymore analysis of this. You can do it on your own. BTW, I don't like the Lakers and basketball. Kobe is a #%hole. Football and Baseball only for me.

 

[quiksilver]

Re: My Thoughts on the Metals market & what it will say for us CRHers

LOL the explanation is easy when you research it , its not the traders manipulating the metals market its the goverment.