Predictions?
- Thread starter denomi
- Start date
Peyton Manning
Gold Member
nothing is ever steady. I saw an article today saying gold will go to 1400 then down by half.
Me? I think 1000 is the low then up to about 1450
Me? I think 1000 is the low then up to about 1450
denomi
Jr. Member
- Joined
- Apr 12, 2013
- Messages
- 52
- Reaction score
- 12
- Golden Thread
- 0
- Primary Interest:
- All Treasure Hunting
- #3
Thread Owner
What time frame are you talking? I don't think gold will ever go below production cost, somewhere around $700. But is it going to continue going down and we are just experiencing a blip or is it turning around?
SilverHoarder07
Full Member
- Joined
- Oct 9, 2012
- Messages
- 178
- Reaction score
- 70
- Golden Thread
- 0
- Primary Interest:
- All Treasure Hunting
I have bought some silver at the current level so I am hoping for a turn around!
Time will tell I suppose...just do your homework, look at historical charts etc.
TreasurePirate69
Hero Member
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2012
- Messages
- 589
- Reaction score
- 196
- Golden Thread
- 0
- Primary Interest:
- All Treasure Hunting
What follows is all my opinion and is not based on scientific evidence or even common sense.....
I believe the short term climb we are experiencing is normal. Happens all the time and especially after a large fall like we saw last week.. You see a big price drop and a bunch of people run in thinking that "this could be the last opportunity to buy at low prices". They ignore the fact that they have been saying that all the way down. But the net effect is a short term increase in speculation and demand for gold and silver. This takes a couple of days or even weeks to work through the system resulting in higher prices. Depending on how big the original fall was, these "rebound" prices stick around for a week or two and then the fall starts all over again (albeit more slowly this time).
The net trend for the past two years has been downward and unless this uptick lasts for at least a month there is no reason to believe that anything has changed. Small movements up and down over a week or two is completely normal. The time to buy will be when the price appears to have stagnated for several months and premiums have returned to normal levels. Until then, you are taking a pretty big risk trying to catch the falling knife. That doesn't mean you couldn't be right and strike it rich. It just means that the risks of being wrong are much higher.
Of course, if your goal is "long term stacking at any price" then buy all you want as price really doesn't matter to you.
My longer term price prediction is $16 silver and $900 gold by 2015. This prediction was made almost a year ago when silver prices were much higher. At that time I didn't think we'd get below $20 for another year. And yet... here we are already. These predictions are based paritally on average inflation adjusted yearly prices of silver and gold since 1964 being $14.90 and $670 respectively. I have other reasons why I think this will come to pass. But again, these are all just my opinions and worth no more than you paid for them: nothing!
I believe the short term climb we are experiencing is normal. Happens all the time and especially after a large fall like we saw last week.. You see a big price drop and a bunch of people run in thinking that "this could be the last opportunity to buy at low prices". They ignore the fact that they have been saying that all the way down. But the net effect is a short term increase in speculation and demand for gold and silver. This takes a couple of days or even weeks to work through the system resulting in higher prices. Depending on how big the original fall was, these "rebound" prices stick around for a week or two and then the fall starts all over again (albeit more slowly this time).
The net trend for the past two years has been downward and unless this uptick lasts for at least a month there is no reason to believe that anything has changed. Small movements up and down over a week or two is completely normal. The time to buy will be when the price appears to have stagnated for several months and premiums have returned to normal levels. Until then, you are taking a pretty big risk trying to catch the falling knife. That doesn't mean you couldn't be right and strike it rich. It just means that the risks of being wrong are much higher.
Of course, if your goal is "long term stacking at any price" then buy all you want as price really doesn't matter to you.
My longer term price prediction is $16 silver and $900 gold by 2015. This prediction was made almost a year ago when silver prices were much higher. At that time I didn't think we'd get below $20 for another year. And yet... here we are already. These predictions are based paritally on average inflation adjusted yearly prices of silver and gold since 1964 being $14.90 and $670 respectively. I have other reasons why I think this will come to pass. But again, these are all just my opinions and worth no more than you paid for them: nothing!
TreasurePirate69
Hero Member
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2012
- Messages
- 589
- Reaction score
- 196
- Golden Thread
- 0
- Primary Interest:
- All Treasure Hunting
I'll also throw out there that part of what we are seeing now is a conglomeration of multiple markets/economies working against each other. The panic in the US (and Europe) came a couple of years ago when things in China were considered to be just fine. Since then, the panic in the US has subsided resulting in lower gold and silver prices. However, right now in China the panic is just beginning. We've seen record PM interest over there and in India as they start to wrestle with the same issues we did two years ago. So we have a calmer US and European market that is driving down prices while at the same time a panicked Chinese market is raising prices due to higher demand. The short term trend will definitely be affected by how strong each of these opposing forces is compared to the other. How much the Chinese market impacts short term prices remains to be seen. What I do believe though is that long term, the Chinese economy will stabilize just like the US economy has and the net effect will be a decrease in demand and prices over the next few years.
All just my opinion of course.
All just my opinion of course.
Marchas45
Bronze Member
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2009
- Messages
- 2,046
- Reaction score
- 381
- Golden Thread
- 0
- Location
- A Place In Heaven
- Detector(s) used
- Excalibur 1000, Garrett Scorpion.
- Primary Interest:
- All Treasure Hunting
Me I just keep Buying The Dips and Don't Worry About Anything Else. I Have 80 oz's of 1oz and 10 oz bars being delivered tomorrow and yesterday I bought CyberDans Constitutional Silver, I don't give a crap if it's going up or down I'm buying for Survival. Keep Stacking O! Happy 4th Of July
billjustbill
Bronze Member
Trying to predict the PM market is folly.
In seeing your quote about Kentucky copper mines, I was wondering what Copper and Copper Mine prices are projecting?
