Silver price potential

[dreamboxvip]

With the big one day jump in the silver price, where will it end up next week? Read an article that its to double in price within six weeks. They say the price is suppose to skyrocket all the time. Thoughts

 

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[SilverFace]

The big increase in PM prices late last week was probably the result of short selling in response to Janet Yellen's recent comments about her continued lack of concern about inflation which really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. The Fed will continue to inflate the money supply and asset bubbles in the stock, housing and real estate markets while the U.S. government continues to spend borrowed money that cant and wont ever be repaid to our creditors. All of this is incredibly bullish for PM's. But trying to predict short term PM prices with any accuracy is nearly impossible. The important thing is to understand the economic fundamentals and sound money (which very few people actually do) and just be prepared for the inevitable.

The few of us hoarding PM's now will soon be rewarded for our understanding and belief in sound money while unfortunately the rest of the country will be punished for their complacency and monetary and economic ignorance. The truth is available to everyone, its just that most people are either incapable of understanding it or unwilling to believe it. This country will soon get a very sobering awaking to the economic realities of the real world.

H$H!

 

[fish on!]

I want to start by saying that I love to CRH and stack silver. I also want the price of silver and gold to rise at least as much as the rest of my fellow CRH'ers do. With that being said, I think the price of silver and gold is going to continue to slide for the next couple of years or at least until we hit another recession. If you read any of the hundreds of gold/silver bug websites they are all making claims that silver and gold prices are on the brink of going through the roof. They do this because they make money through the sale of gold and silver. If you read what the real analysts are saying then you will see that the prediction is that gold and silver is expected to continue to drop for the next couple of years.

The reasons that led to the massive rise in gold and silver were the great recession, massive unemployment, collapse of the housing market, the huge stimulus program of the US government, too much borrowing by the U.S. governemnt leading to a lack of faith in U.S. treasuries, the inability of U.S. politicians to even begin addressing the defecit, etc, etc.
Since that time, many of these conditions have slowed down or begun to reverse. The recession is over, unemployment is getting better, stocks have rebounded, the housing market has rebounded, the stimulus has been discontinued, not to mention many of the huge bailouts actually led to profits for the U.S. government, there has been no large increase in inflation, international demand for U.S. treasuries has not slowed, and though there is still much work to be done on the defecit, the politicians have actually begun to address it through sequestration, ending unemployment extensions, cutting medicare, etc.

I think that the silver and gold spot prices will increase, but I do not think we are going to see even $30 per ounce any time soon. In the near term, I think we are going to continue to see prices in the same trading range they have been for the last year or so or lower. We won't see a huge run up in prices again until some of the aforementioned indicators start looking really bad again or until we get hit with another recession. Again, I'm not a financial guy or anything like that. This is just my opinion and everyone is entitled to their own.

 

[Infowarrior]

Wow $20.88 not bad lol... I gave up watching it since its so depressingly low.

HH

 

[Iamrussell]

Itll get slapped back down soon- its the master yo-yo trick
No way its gonna double in the next while- ok I guess I shouldnt say "no way" cause the ones who pull the yo-yo string could yank it real hard if they wanted to- but I think ultimately China, India and other countries who are buying it by the 100s of tons dont want it that high just yet
But what do I know im just a low crh/ag stacker

-------------------------------------
just keep stacking, just keep stacking, stacking stacking stacking

 

[dreamboxvip]

Well if they pull the string enough and it gets to $550 an oz, then I'm a millionaire haha

 

[ArkieBassMan]

If "they" knew what they were talking about, they'd have been so wealthy by now that they wouldn't be wasting their time writing articles predicting the future price of some metal. They'd be having a mai-tai on some tropical beach somewhere. Just be sure to file away those stating that the price of gold/silver MUST do anything right along with those which state they have a guaranteed system for beating roulette or something of the like.

Supply and demand no longer control the market. Speculation and manipulation do. Therefore, for the most part, the price of precious metals will do exactly what those that my grandmother would call, "The Big Shots" want it to do. If it gets to the point where The-Powers-That-Be are losing control, they'll simply change the rules to get right back into the driver's seat.

The doom-and-gloomers will tell you that the economy is sinking fast and the dollar is failing. And, they might be right, but they've been saying that for a long, long time. By the law of averages, eventually they have to be right. Right along with the preacher putting an exact date to Armageddon and the Chicagoan citing that this is the year the Cubs win it all. Most likely, none of those factors come to be anytime soon and create much of a stir in the precious metal market. As of yet, I have not had a single merchant or person even slightly balk at accepting any of my "worthless" fiat currency for payment.

I'm certainly not anti-precious metals. I do think its a good idea to own some of the shiny stuff as a likely keeper of wealth. By that, I mean that in 25 years I'd expect an ounce of silver or gold to have roughly the same purchasing power as it has now, whereas a $20 bill almost certainly will not.

You can add me to the group that doesn't think precious metal prices will fluctuate much in the coming few years, outside of maybe a brief run-up or sell-off or two. By what I see right at this moment, I believe they'll trend slightly downward if anything.

 

[SilverFace]

The real manipulation in the markets these days is being done by the Fed by price fixing interest rates at artificially low 0% rates and continuing to increase the money supply and devalue the USD which artificially inflates the stock, bond and housing markets. Even Steve Forbes just wrote a book about the demise of the USD. The USD's days as the worlds reserve currency are numbered. But trying to time this with any exact certainty is virtually impossible. It should have happened long before now but the longer it takes to happen, the worse the crisis will be which means even more reason to own PM's.

The supposed financial crisis that the news media and government was alarming us about back in '08 is nothing compared to the REAL financial crisis that's coming. All the government and the Fed has done since then is just make things much much worse with all the bail outs, money printing, and an ever increasing national debt that can never be repaid. Our economy is on life support from the continued QE from the Fed. Right now the Fed is the largest buyer of US treasuries and soon they will be the only buyer of US treasuries as they continue printing even more dollars to monetize our debt. All these continued dangerous absurd ridiculous monetary and fiscal polices can only end in complete financial disaster for this country. Central planning does not work. Fiat currencies do not last. Never ending policies of borrowing, spending and consuming doesn't grow an economy - its ruins and destroys it.

The information from most of the so called financial experts these days is just worthless noise, lies and continued propaganda. The true experts on the subject of economics and sound money are Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard - the two greatest economists in history. If you understand the basic principles of their teachings you will be more educated on the subjects of economics and sound money than 99.99% of everyone else - including the financial news media and so called financial experts.

 

[fish on!]

The real manipulation in the markets these days is being done by the Fed by price fixing interest rates at artificially low 0% rates and continuing to increase the money supply and devalue the USD which artificially inflates the stock, bond and housing markets. Even Steve Forbes just wrote a book about the demise of the USD. The USD's days as the worlds reserve currency are numbered. But trying to time this with any exact certainty is virtually impossible. It should have happened long before now but the longer it takes to happen, the worse the crisis will be which means even more reason to own PM's.

The supposed financial crisis that the news media and government was alarming us about back in '08 is nothing compared to the REAL financial crisis that's coming. All the government and the Fed has done since then is just make things much much worse with all the bail outs, money printing, and an ever increasing national debt that can never be repaid. Our economy is on life support from the continued QE from the Fed. Right now the Fed is the largest buyer of US treasuries and soon they will be the only buyer of US treasuries as they continue printing even more dollars to monetize our debt. All these continued dangerous absurd ridiculous monetary and fiscal polices can only end in complete financial disaster for this country. Central planning does not work. Fiat currencies do not last. Never ending policies of borrowing, spending and consuming doesn't grow an economy - its ruins and destroys it.

The information from most of the so called financial experts these days is just worthless noise, lies and continued propaganda. The true experts on the subject of economics and sound money are Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard - the two greatest economists in history. If you understand the basic principles of their teachings you will be more educated on the subjects of economics and sound money than 99.99% of everyone else - including the financial news media and so called financial experts.

My question to you is this: which world currency do you think is a suitable replacement for the US dollar as the reserve currency?
The Chinese yuan? That is exponentially more manipulated than the dollar

The euro? Europe has all of the same problems that you cite the us as having only to much larger extent.

The British pound? Do you think the European nations will support that move after the uk snubbed it's nose at the rest of the European community by not joining the euro?

Maybe it will be the rupee?

I know the trend in recent years has been to slam the us government and economy but the fact remains that we are still in much better financial shape than the majority of the rest of the world.

 

[SilverFace]

Im in no way a currency expert but right now there are other currencies in the world more sound (or at least less unsound) than the USD. And the best thing other countries can do now and will do soon is de-peg their own currencies from the USD and let the value of their currencies rise. The USD is an incredibly flawed currency and as I said before, with all the continued government spending and misallocation of badly needed resources out of the private sector into the government and the Fed's policy of never-ending QE, our economy continues to get weaker and weaker year after year.

Any currency that's not backed by real money is essentially worthless. But some currencies are in worse shape than others. And USD's are nothing but non-interesting bearing debt notes from a country that's not only broke, but the largest debtor nation in the history of the world.


"Paper is poverty. It is only the ghost of money, and not money itself " - Thomas Jefferson

 

[Twitch]

I have no idea, I'd guess down in the near term rather than up. I'd love to see it fall off a cliff and head back towards single digits. Ideally there'd be less CRH'ing and some of you would start throwing back the 40%ers like in the old days!

 

[fish on!]

Im in no way a currency expert but right now there are other currencies in the world more sound (or at least less unsound) than the USD.

Can you name some of these currencies and economies that are stronger than that of the U.S.? I don't think you are going to find it mentioned on any of the fear-mongering websites that like to espouse the downfall of the U.S.

If you send me $100,000 in "worthless" U.S. dollars I will gladly send you a couple hundred ounces of my silver stack.

 

[jr98119]

Im in no way a currency expert but right now there are other currencies in the world more sound (or at least less unsound) than the USD. And the best thing other countries can do now and will do soon is de-peg their own currencies from the USD and let the value of their currencies rise. The USD is an incredibly flawed currency and as I said before, with all the continued government spending and misallocation of badly needed resources out of the private sector into the government and the Fed's policy of never-ending QE, our economy continues to get weaker and weaker year after year.

Any currency that's not backed by real money is essentially worthless. But some currencies are in worse shape than others. And USD's are nothing but non-interesting bearing debt notes from a country that's not only broke, but the largest debtor nation in the history of the world.


"Paper is poverty. It is only the ghost of money, and not money itself " - Thomas Jefferson

Yes, but if their currencies rise against the dollar then their exports will suffer, and other countries are more dependent on exports than we are. All currencies are flawed. Von Mieses and Rothbard are fine, but I urge everyone reading this to read the frequently incomprehensible Martin Armstrong for a refreshing walk down reality lane.

 

[fistfulladirt]

Maybe at one time gold and silver were real money. Today it's the US dollar.

Buy seven dollars worth of gasoline and try paying for it with a 90% US silver half.

Edit: I am not anti-PM

 

[Peyton Manning]

you ever hear of a gas station on the radio saying buy now the price is going up Friday?
No, cause they know when it's going up and it's to their advantage for you to wait.
same with PM salesmen. If they were certain it was going to $50 by the end of the year why would they want you to buy it now? They would make more at higher prices.

 

[Dozer D]

To SilverFace & FishOn: nice commentary on the subject. Nice to hear it lay-mans terms.

 

[SilverFace]

Can you name some of these currencies and economies that are stronger than that of the U.S.? I don't think you are going to find it mentioned on any of the fear-mongering websites that like to espouse the downfall of the U.S.

Although I don't have faith in any fiat currencies, the Singapore dollar, the Swiss franc, the New Zeeland dollar, and the Norwegian Krone are a few of the better ones (or least worst ones) right now. And something to keep in mind is that the one currency that other foreign central banks and foreign governments all over the world are mistakenly and unfortunately spending hundreds of billions of dollars to artificially prop up is the USD. But this cant and wont last much longer. The free markets want to lower the value of the USD and eventually these foreign governments will come to their senses and let the value of the USD fall and the free markets will finally reflect the USD's true value.

As far as strong and growing economies of the near future that will soon be China and some other Asian countries like Singapore. The commodity king Jimmy Rogers has been predicting the economic growth in China for decades and even wrote a book about his forecasts several years ago called A Bull in China. He's so confident about this belief he moved his family to Singapore in 2007. Its virtually inevitable that China will have the worlds largest growing economy sometime during the first half of this century.

Im not familiar with the fear-mongering websites you refer to but one website I would certainly encourage everyone to visit if they want to have a true understanding of economics and sound money is mises.org. There is probably no better resource of the subjects of real economics and sound money in existence anywhere else in the world.

And as far as your proposition for the currency/silver exchange. Quite frankly I would never be foolish enough to ever own that much in USD's. But if I did I would obviously rather buy my silver elsewhere at current cheaper prices. But in a few years when silvers at all time highs again, you will likely have no problem finding plenty of buyers willing to make that exchange with you. But by then you will have most likely rethought your offer and begun to realize its not the good deal for you that you think it is now.

Good luck to you and H$H!

 

[fish on!]

I would be shocked if any of those four listed currencies became the reserve currency of the world. They are far too small. The world is not going to go back to trading in precious metals instead of currency. That would be a social regression. The price of currencies is based on supply and demand.

You should read about China. The growth in China is a fallacy. Don't get me wrong, they had strong growth for a number of years, but everything about their economy is completely artificially created and controlled. The value of their currency is completely controlled by the government. Their huge growth numbers in housing are fake. The government has been building phantom cities that are completely uninhabited for years just to keep the housing market going. The environmental conditions of China are such that the country is on the verge of collapsing on its own. I do a lot of business in China and would not look at that country as a model for how to do anything.

I guess the way I should leave the conversation is this: I wish you luck in your financial planning endeavors and hope that you have success. I am going to stick with my traditional method of investing and financial planning. So far, none of these things that would make hoarding pm's profitable has come to pass and at this point are purely speculative.

 

[SilverFace]

The countries with the currencies I mentioned offer some great investment opportunities right now thanks in large part to the strength of their currencies and the real growth of their economies but right now no currency is worthy of the designation of being the worlds reserve currency - least of all the USD. If there was real free market supply and demand in the currency markets and if it weren't for central banks all over the world keeping the value of the USD at artificially high levels the USD would of and should of crashed long before now. Central bank planning and artificial currency, stock, bond & housing market manipulation only compounds the problems (which are primarily a result of the State and the central banks own doing in the first place) and prolongs the inevitable which makes things much much worse in the end.

I used to think that Social Security was the largest Ponzi scheme in the history of the world but its actually the USD. Other than the State (government) and central banking itself, the USD is the biggest con in the history of the world. Im completely and thoroughly convinced there has never been a better time in the history of the world to own and "invest" (in terms of its value appreciation) in PM's than there is today.