For PM bugs feeling down lately

[jim4silver]

I found this on the web today and perhaps it gives hope to those who have lost "faith" in PMs. Looks like the author wrote this in Aug 2011. Look at the gold chart and see the spot listed for a potential bottom is 1250. I could see them pushing gold there in the near future. He compares gold's possible future trajectory with that of the Nasdaq back in the tech bubble days.

Just thought it was interesting and that it could be quite prescient. We'll have to watch and see what happens. Maybe someone out there got it right.

Goldy von Moldy | Slope of Hope


Jim

 

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[Marchas45]

I got it bullish, I'm still strong on PM's and just look at it as an opportunity to buy. BUT I HAVE NO FIAT TILL MY NEXT CLOSING.

 

[Stymie]

The telling point in this whole gold/silver saga is despite dropping prices,
demand increases.
A worst case scenerio for the paper merchants.

 

[TreasurePirate69]

The telling point in this whole gold/silver saga is despite dropping prices,
demand increases.
A worst case scenerio for the paper merchants.

Actually, gold/silver demand is increasing BECAUSE of falling prices. Not the other way around. That is important. The demand is from people rushing in to catch the falling knife. I'm sure if you looked back to 1980 you'd see demand spikes like this all the way down to silver reaching the sub-$10 mark from a high of around $50. It wasn't a good strategy then either. As they say, the trend is your friend. The trend has been lower highs and lower lows for two years now.

 

[lost]

About 7 years ago, a local man developed an alloy that was suppose to eliminate, (or reduce) the need for real silver in most manufacturing. Made big news around the local media. My neighbor said it got a write up in the WSJ. Haven't seen a thing about the alloy since. Guess he sold the patent to some big outfit and it's not being used or buried in a file cabinet somewhere. He passed away so can't ask him.

You Silver Stackers are going to hate to hear this one. I've read on one or two web site where silver is being described as dead money. Hey, don't shoot. I'm just passing it along.

While here, I finally got my tube of Freedom Girls. 20 PERFECT rounds. Not a blemish, scratch or piece of dust. The other misc rounds I ordered, well, not so much in the way of looks. But, they are only rounds. One oz of silver no matter the looks. Apologize for all the whining , witching and moaning like a little girl while waiting for the order. But, damn it, I don't like someone holding my thousand bucks for around 45 days. That's interest free money. I'm really very shallow.

 

[Marchas45]

Well this Silver Stacker is going to hold onto his Dead Money and will add to it when the Fiat becomes available. Lol

 

[Jason in Enid]

You can't compare the 1980 silver price to today. In 1980, silver rose, spiked and fell in a span of 3 months. Silver spent 5 years rising to it's latest high of 50, and it hasn't plummeted like 1980. Yes, it has dropped considerably since the high, but that is the cycle. It rises and it falls with a constant upward trend over time. This is just a dip in the cycle.

 

[TreasurePirate69]

You can't compare the 1980 silver price to today. In 1980, silver rose, spiked and fell in a span of 3 months. Silver spent 5 years rising to it's latest high of 50, and it hasn't plummeted like 1980. Yes, it has dropped considerably since the high, but that is the cycle. It rises and it falls with a constant upward trend over time. This is just a dip in the cycle.

And yet, everyone seems to want to look at the silver price of 1980 when calculating inflation adjusted prices. We all know why that is right? I agree that today's cycle is not the same as 1980. But that doesn't mean today's cycle isn't also based mostly on fear.

By the way, if it took severe market manipulation to get the price to $50 in 1980, then it stands to reason that it would take severe market manipulation again today to bring the price to the inflation adjusted amount of $150. Makes sense right? But it doesn't bode well for those that believe we are currently experiencing manipulation in the opposite direction now does it?

 

[jim4silver]

And yet, everyone seems to want to look at the silver price of 1980 when calculating inflation adjusted prices. We all know why that is right? I agree that today's cycle is not the same as 1980. But that doesn't mean today's cycle isn't also based mostly on fear.

By the way, if it took severe market manipulation to get the price to $50 in 1980, then it stands to reason that it would take severe market manipulation again today to bring the price to the inflation adjusted amount of $150. Makes sense right? But it doesn't bode well for those that believe we are currently experiencing manipulation in the opposite direction now does it?

Sometimes fear is a valid reason to buy or sell something. Manipulation can go either way up or down. Kind of a "coincidence" that silver was shut down right at its past high (whether you want to call it a real or fake high in 1980) back in Apr. 2011?

For those who say the bull is over in PMs cannot explain why we never had the "mania" phase that is present in nearly all types of bull markets and happens before the final crash. When such mania phases happen they always take out prior historical highs and we were stopped out right at the former high in silver. That tells me those who have control over the market let it rise then smacked it down. I believe those same "folks" are gearing up for another up swing and are accumulating longs each week. If this were the final "crash" it would not have taken 2 years yet we are still way above low prices from the mid 2000s. Look at past bull markets and when they "end" it ain't pretty and they crash fast.
We will be back on an up swing at the latest by the end of summer, but probably sooner. You heard it here first.

Jim

 

[TreasurePirate69]

Sometimes fear is a valid reason to buy or sell something. Manipulation can go either way up or down. Kind of a "coincidence" that silver was shut down right at its past high (whether you want to call it a real or fake high in 1980) back in Apr. 2011?

For those who say the bull is over in PMs cannot explain why we never had the "mania" phase that is present in nearly all types of bull markets and happens before the final crash. When such mania phases happen they always take out prior historical highs and we were stopped out right at the former high in silver. That tells me those who have control over the market let it rise then smacked it down. I believe those same "folks" are gearing up for another up swing and are accumulating longs each week. If this were the final "crash" it would not have taken 2 years yet we are still way above low prices from the mid 2000s. Look at past bull markets and when they "end" it ain't pretty and they crash fast.
We will be back on an up swing at the latest by the end of summer, but probably sooner. You heard it here first.

Jim

As far as there needing to be a mania phase or trying to classify what we've seen as being a bull run I really don't see where that is necessary. The price is the price and the trend is the trend. A lot of silver bulls keep wanting to try to determine if the bull run is over in order to justify future price movement theories. Today's market is not the same market as what we saw in 1980. Today, we can click a button in our houses and buy paper silver without even putting on our underwear first. Therefore, rules and expectations about how past bull markets worked probably should be thrown out the window. If the "mania" phase that you are waiting for never really happens, what exactly will that mean if the price continues to go down? Will you sit around claiming that it MUST be manipulation because the well known pattern never panned out and yet the price went lower? Or will you come to the conclusion that maybe not all bull runs experience a mania phase to signal the end?

You may indeed be right about where silver is going. And there may indeed be a forthcoming mania phase. But I don't think I would put all of my money on there being a required mania phase to signal the end of the bull run. In my book, the quick rise to $49 in 2011 and subsequent drop to $34 within a couple of weeks is enough of a "mania pattern" for me to believe that the run is over. We've had 2 years of straight declines. As I've said before, if 2 years isn't enough to be considered a "streak breaker" than what is? If anything, the last bull run is over and maybe a new bull run is about to begin.