Love the feeling...

[$ilver$urfer]

My half boxes have been so bad lately that I went from 8 boxes a week down to 3 in the last two months and have primarily focused on dimes which luckily have been producing very well for me! Well, last week one of my order banks forgot my two boxes of halves so I got the two yesterday. First box was showing a 40% ender, don't you just love the feeling knowing you are gonna walk away with some silver? Anyways, that box produced [7] 40%ers. Box #2 was showing a 40% ender as well, but this box was amazing! [16] 40%ers and [1] '64!!! This box ranks up there as one of my best ever!!!

HH,

$ilver$urfer

 

[CardsNCoins]

Very nice boxes.

Whenever I see a 40% ender I always figure there are at least one or two more in the box because I say to myself "what are the odds that the only 40%er out of 2,000 coins found its way to 1 of only 100 ends?" So far I've only been wrong once.

HH

Nick

 

[RIcoinhunter]

Nice haul!!

 

[Bigheed]

nice boxes surfer!

 

[Yagershots]

 

[CanadianCRH]

Very nice boxes.

Whenever I see a 40% ender I always figure there are at least one or two more in the box because I say to myself "what are the odds that the only 40%er out of 2,000 coins found its way to 1 of only 100 ends?"

Lol, the odds are 5%

Sorry, I just had to do that :P

 

[phrostie]

the odds are not 5%, I encourage anyone who has had statistics to figure out CardsNCoins statistical probability request. I do not have the free time to do this calculation, but know 5% is NOT right.

 

[bsktbllsam]

the odds are not 5%, I encourage anyone who has had statistics to figure out CardsNCoins statistical probability request. I do not have the free time to do this calculation, but know 5% is NOT right.

to do this probability i think you need to know the probability of a box being a skunk or not. or you need to have the average silver/1000 coins.

 

[CanadianCRH]

I'm just saying, that if there is just one silver coin, wouldnt there be a 1 in 20 chance that it's in one of the 100 "ender" spots out of the 2000 places it could be? (sorry if that made absolutely no sense, I suck at math)

 

[TheRockDoc]

Not sure about the crazy math #'s that are being attempted here... But, I do know that feeling you are speaking of when you see enders... It is amazing. A couple weeks ago I got a box, it was the first time i ever saw an ender, and there were two. I ended up with 25 silvers in that one box. Yesterday I picked up a bag, of loose, 2000 halves. I had spotted a couple of silvers in it before I made it to me truck and whether it is enders you see, or just silvers loose in a bag, it is an amazing feeling of happiness! Had 16 silvers in that bag last night, including a 1970-d. I would say enders are good. Silver is good.

Congrats on the great box.

 

[sitman]

In a $500 half dollar box, there are 50 rolls. Each roll has 20 half dollars, for a total of 1000 half dollars in the box. If there is only one silver half dollar in the box, and there is an equal probability that it can occur at any of the 1000 positions in the 50 rolls, then the probability of an ender is (2x50)/1000=1/10=10%.

I'll have to wait until I'm more alert to tackle the problem of the odds of more silver given that one ender is present.

 

[tgcougar]

In a $500 half dollar box, there are 50 rolls. Each roll has 20 half dollars, for a total of 1000 half dollars in the box. If there is only one silver half dollar in the box, and there is an equal probability that it can occur at any of the 1000 positions in the 50 rolls, then the probability of an ender is (2x50)/1000=1/10=10%.

I'll have to wait until I'm more alert to tackle the problem of the odds of more silver given that one ender is present.

No real need to extrapolate to the box - one roll has 20 coins. 2 ends = 10%.

I do not believe it is possible (statistically) to determine if there are other silver coins within a box based on seeing one, as you would need to have an idea of the distribution rate across the population. Anecdotally, if you see one silver, you have two possible scenarios. First, randomness. In which case, the distribution rate theory would apply. Two, someone cashed in a 'grouping' of silver, that was subsequently processed (rolled). In this example, you are more likely to find another silver.

Probability. What do you suspect the odds are for someone depositing silver vs. depositing a random selection of coins (let's leave dumps out for the time being)? 1%? 10%? Likely closer to 1% (or less). In this case, with a defining of only two scenarios, there is a probability of half of whatever percent you give the second scenario occurring.

I don't offer that this explanation 'defines' why skunks occur, but I think it's in the same neighborhood.

Tom

 

[CHAINCHOMP]

nice finds!!! imma let the math geeks battle this problem out, and give some credit to the man that found the silver in the 1st place! congrats SS! keep it up and hh! [R.I.P. Rich Hartford]

 

[Mentone Grizz]

If you flip a half dollar nine times and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds that it will come up heads on the tenth flip?

 

[BuffaloBoy]

WTG!!!

Silver enders are really rare- first off, many know how rare it is to get a silver half dollar in a box of halves... And in one roll, there's only a 10% chance that if the roll contained silver it would be on the end(crimped ends where you can see 2 coins)

HH!

 

[TheRockDoc]

If you flip a half dollar nine times and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds that it will come up heads on the tenth flip?

So, you take the probability that 1 flip of the coin, will produce either heads or tales.... That is a 100% probability (as long as you are using a legit coin, no trick coins, or magician coins here for this demonstrative example guys)-not just legit coins, but coins with a "heads" side and a "tails" side meaning exactly one side of each for a total of 2 sides.. Now since the probability of 1 flip is 100% of the product of the flip, those numbers basically cancel each other out. Leaving us with a simpler, more generic means of easier understanding to interpret the question/problem. So, with that said, I would be lying a bit if I told you that I thought there was even a one millionth of a percent chance that my answer could be incorrect here: So, what we have is this. Since, there is one flip, (first part of solving this equation/problem/excercise) and there must be (one) true answer, (heads or tails) after the flip is settled/completed. You (the 2 sided coin flipper) has a 50% chance of the coin displaying heads, and a 50%chance that tails be northside pointing (displaying tails) upon settling. Keep in mind that there are 8 more flips to address, and solve here... STAY WITH ME GENTS. So since you are looking at 1 in a 3.14..... (or Pie) Trillion percent chance that these odds will fluxuate to different products/numbers after the first flip. Meaning there is a fair to good solid percent (%) chance that flips one through eight, will have the same odds.............. AS THE NINTH flip. Remember back, when we broke it down and figured the first step... (50%) chance was the outcome, remember? I am going to take a very small, (small, but lacking 2 pages worth of details) little step ahead here, try not to get lost here after all this. There is a statisticallynumericallogicallylacking 2cosign-3.14(PIE again)tangent + (your first product again)= *Percent (%) chance here that your odds will, could, or might, have to be 50%.....
*That was all based on the metric system I might add. (to be clear). I would hate a chance at precipitating any confusion.
I knew they werent lying when they told me Math IS everywhere. Thanks for letting me demonstrate my over abundance in smarts everyone. PM me for those other pages I was talking about. ( I know some of you true mathematicians are gonna wanna see that)

 

[Mentone Grizz]

TheRocDoc is correct, although he sure took the scenic route to get there (whatever you do, DON"T PM him for his supplemental calculation pages)!

The odds of flipping a coin ten times and having all flips turn up heads may be fairly astronomicalstatistallynumericallogicallyastrological, but the odds of any single flip coming up heads will always be 50%, or 1:2...........even the tenth flip! Or the thousandth!

- Grizz